Tropical Storm Dorian Expected to Reach Hurricane Strength by Tuesday

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances and Tropical-Storm-Force-Wind Speed Probabilities graphics. National Hurricane Center

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Dorian has formed in the Atlantic and could reach hurricane strength by Tuesday.

As of 11 a.m. ET, the storm’s center was approximately 465 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 14 miles per hour, the hurricane center said, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

“The tropical storm is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at a similar forward speed for the next several days,” the hurricane center said. “On the forecast track, Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.”

Storm Warning and Storm Watches Issued

As Dorian moved west toward the Caribbean on Sunday morning, the inclement weather system embedded Barbados under a tropical storm warning and other Caribbean islands under tropical storm watches.

The first key message conveyed by the hurricane center in the 11 a.m. advisory was the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additionally, the government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch.

The second key message was that it’s too early to forecast the specific timing and magnitudes of the impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola. Authorities and interested parties in those regions should monitor the progress of the storm.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within around 48 hours, the hurricane center notes.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds

The hurricane center said that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. With some strengthening during the next 48 hours, Dorian could be near hurricane strength. By Tuesday, Dorian could be around hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea, the center noted.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of the cyclone.

Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities chart. National Hurricane Center

“Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches,” the hurricane center said.

“Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday,” the center added. “These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

The hurricane center has published Coastal Watches/Warnings and a Forecast Cone Storm Center graphic, which shows the probable path of the storm center.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center. National Hurricane Center

The center says: “this graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).”

The hurricane center has published an Atlantic 5-Day Weather Outlook graphic with supplementary text.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States,” the center stated.

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. National Hurricane Center

The hurricane center adds people should additionally consult products from local weather offices.

A tropical depression or another tropical storm could form off Florida due to the conditions, AccuWeather reported Sunday.

The area of disturbed weather, dubbed Invest 98L by the hurricane center, wandered over the Florida Peninsula on Saturday and brought localized downpours to eastern parts of the state.

“As 98L begins to move northeastward away from Florida, conditions should be conducive for further development and organization of this system over the next few days as it moves through a zone of warm water and fairly low wind shear,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

Dorian is the fourth tropical storm in the Atlantic this year and is poised to become the first hurricane this season.