Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for more than 50 counties on Aug. 1 as forecasters predict a tropical cyclone could hit his state’s panhandle and Gulf Coast in the coming week.
The NHC predicts that “environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for [the] development” of a tropical depression, and that could happen this weekend or early next week “over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida Panhandle.”
If it does so, it will be named Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Debby.
Reports on Aug. 1 show the storm—designated Invest 97-L—bearing down on the Greater Antilles Islands, which include Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico. It is moving west at a rate of 10–15 knots (roughly 11–17 mph).
Early spaghetti models show it moving north off Florida’s west coast and making landfall along the panhandle between the “Big Bend” region and Pensacola.
In anticipation of the storm’s development and arrival, DeSantis declared a state of emergency for the following counties: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington.
These counties make up the entire panhandle and Gulf Coast, as well as inland counties in the northern half of the state.
Among the possible conditions laid out in the declaration were heavy rainfall—at least 12 inches over the next seven days—flash and coastal flooding, possible damage to critical infrastructure like roads and bridges, and power outages.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms were reported over parts of The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Aug. 1.
The storm was previously forecasted to turn north-northeast along the U.S. Atlantic coast, but it is now expected to continue westward across Cuba and the Florida Straits and enter the Gulf of Mexico before cutting north.
It will be the second named storm to affect the United States this season, following Hurricane Beryl’s arrival on the Texas Gulf Coast in mid-July. Hurricane Beryl left nearly three million utility customers without power and caused flood-causing rains and dozens of tornadoes across the county from Louisiana to Vermont.
The NHC states there is a 30 percent chance of a tropical depression forming in the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance of one forming within the next seven days.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), for this tropical wave to become a tropical depression, it would have to develop into a cyclone with “organized deep convection” and surface winds moving counter-clockwise around a “well-defined center,” producing maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
If sustained winds reach between 39 mph and 72 mph, it will be designated a tropical storm. For hurricane status, the minimum sustained wind must be 73 mph.
The Florida panhandle has been the target of multiple extreme weather events over the past year. In the final days of August 2023, Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend region as a Category 3 hurricane, and tornadoes struck communities in Panama City Beach and the surrounding area in January 2024.
