BETHLEHEM, Pa.—Nestled in the heart of eastern Pennsylvania is one of two state counties that have been bellwethers in the past four presidential elections and may decide who controls the White House next year.
Northampton County, home of the former Bethlehem Steel plant—once the world’s largest producer of steel—is one of two once-blue counties in the Keystone State, along with Erie County, that then-candidate Donald Trump flipped in 2016 before they moved back to the Democrats in 2020.
Now considered a swing county in the largest battleground state, Northampton is seeing significant attention this year. Democrats visited the county in September. Trump, now a former president and the Republican presidential nominee, has stopped repeatedly in the larger Lehigh Valley area. And House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has been to Bethlehem twice recently.
The attention underscores how important the county will be in determining the winning presidential candidate in Pennsylvania and, by extension, the White House.
“These fluctuations between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and Barack Obama, I think, are indicative of the fact that we truly are a true bellwether,” Northampton County GOP Chair Glenn Geissinger told The Epoch Times.
“We reflect the national feel as well as that of the Commonwealth pretty well, because our demographics accurately reflect the cross-section of everybody. We [also] have a good, solid portion of independents.”
Part of that political diversity comes from the region’s decades-long evolution.
Industrialization “was a sort of a slam dunk for the Democrats,” Tony Iannelli, president and CEO of the Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce, told The Epoch Times. “There’s still a fair amount of labor here.”
Iannelli said that when manufacturing went offshore in the mid-1990s, the area “hit a wall” but has since bounced back.
“The bad times literally set us up for the good times,” he said.
Health care, life sciences, sports, and other industries are flooding into the area, building a bustling tourism industry.
Now, “softer R,” or moderate, Republicans are moving into the area from neighboring New York and New Jersey, Geissinger said, adding to the area’s political diversity.
“We’ve cut the margin significantly over time. ... and we’ve also seen an increase in the number of independent voters,” Geissinger said.
“What Donald Trump did is he brought a populist message to the Republican Party, and that populist message has paid off for him.”
Biden, according to Geissinger, won over older blue-collar voters in 2020 because of his connections to Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was born and raised.
“We’re not going to experience that this time around with Kamala Harris. It’s just not going to happen,” he said.
Geissinger acknowledged that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has advantages with younger, college-educated groups, but he said he is confident of Trump’s chances this year.
“[Trump has] made inroads with blue-collar ... Democrats, and that’s going to pull him over significantly in Northampton County,” Geissinger said.
The Epoch Times contacted the Northampton County Democratic Party but did not receive a response by publication time.
County Demographics
The cities of Bethlehem and Easton, toward the south near Bucks County, have traditionally been blue, but Pennsylvania’s rural, agricultural areas to the north are largely Republican, Geissinger said.Some of the locals are drawn to the county’s diversity.
“There’s a lot of diversity out here, and not even just in terms of culture or ethnicity, but just in terms of ... different groups,” Francisco Santana, 25, told The Epoch Times.
“You have seniors, you have middle-aged people, and there’s a lot of colleges here.”
Bethlehem Business
Modern-day Bethlehem sits like a crown jewel beneath the hills of the Appalachian Highlands and is a central hub of Northampton County.Like much of industrial Pennsylvania, Bethlehem was a victim of the offshoring of U.S. manufacturing, which led to the demise of its once-mighty Bethlehem Steel plant—formerly the world’s largest producer of steel, fabricating structures such as the Empire State Building and the Golden Gate Bridge.
Nestled along the Lehigh River, the sprawling site’s towering buildings are now weathered, rusted, and decayed from decades of neglect. Windows are cracked or shattered, with crumbling bricks exposing the entrails of what used to be a mighty industrial giant.
“When so much went overseas [in] steel making, they just weren’t ready for it,” Iannelli said.
Some in the area still have connections to the plant.
“For some families, it took a huge toll,” Amanda Holi, 36, whose father, uncle, and grandfather once worked at Bethlehem Steel, told The Epoch Times. When part of the site became the Sands Casino, she worked there, too.
However, she said she sees a resurgence in the area, with new developments and businesses feeding the local economy.
“There’s tons of traditions that I feel make it cute and quaint,” Holi said, describing the local sports rivalries and the new restaurants opening locally.
Voters of all ages, including students at Lehigh University, spoke about health care, their desire for political unity, reproductive rights, the economy, and their fears about the 2024 election.
Some were aware of the significance of their vote as residents of a bellwether county in the largest U.S. battleground state.
“It makes me feel a little responsible to try to convince people to vote the way I think is important, because I think we’re in a crucial time here,” Norah Hooper, a retiree who moved to the area two years ago, told The Epoch Times.
“It’s made me try to talk to people about it, and to work toward Harris, to make sure that she wins.”
Hooper said she feels “scared to death” about the election and wants a president who empathizes with all Americans.
Northampton’s diversity gives many different voter groups a chance to make their mark on the nation, Santana said.
“Even if it is a battleground state, I think it’s nice to see that a lot of demographics are here and are having their voice heard,” he said.
Ben Cohen, 43, said he would vote regardless. His support for Harris this year is a “very simple, binary choice,” he said, as he does not think Trump is a good leader for the country, calling him a wild card. Cohen said he supports an economic agenda that focuses on the middle class.
Concerns About Election Results
Some expressed deep concerns about what could play out on Election Day.“I already voted by mail, and I’m kind of scared that [Trump] might win,” Mary Jean Langman, a retired teacher who moved to Northampton County from Scranton, told The Epoch Times.
The economy is often named as one of the top issues on voters’ minds in most polls, although some expressed optimism about the country’s trajectory.
“All these years that I’ve been here, it was always the economy [that mattered in elections],” Babak Kamyab told The Epoch Times.
He immigrated to the United States from Iran in 1977 and now owns a gift shop in downtown Bethlehem.
Kamyab said that despite economic woes since COVID-19, his business is thriving.
“The economy is like an ocean; if it’s turning, whether up or down, it’s going to make a huge circle, very slowly, to come back up or go down. That’s the way [the] economy works,” he said.
Kamyab’s shop is one of very few along Main Street with a Harris–Walz sign at its entrance. Given how close the race seems in recent polling, he expressed concerns about Trump’s chances but said he thinks Harris will prevail if she stays the course.
“I mean, the international situation is a terrible situation,” Kamyab said, referring to the escalating military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. “But at least I know with [Trump], the Ukraine situation is going to get worse.”
Frankie Lozada, 37, and Timear Haley, 30, both moved to the Lehigh Valley to join Hogar Crea, an international drug rehabilitation program that has a location in nearby Allentown. While Lozada doesn’t pay much attention to politics, Haley is inspired by Harris’s messaging.
“[Her slogan] ‘When we fight, we win,’ it kind of caught me, because I was at a stage in my life where I wanted to give up, and I just didn’t want to live life anymore,” Haley said.
“When she said that, it kind of took to me, and I was just like, I would keep going with her with that slogan, so fight and win. So far, so good; I’ve been a month clean.”
Haley said he hopes to start a business when he gets back on his feet.
The College Vote
Many of the students at Bethlehem’s Lehigh University are deeply engaged in the 2024 election. For some, it is the first time that they’re old enough to cast a ballot.“I just want younger candidates,” Raquel Romero, 19, told The Epoch Times.
“Our financial state right now is absolutely horrible with the fact that living expenses are almost at the height of this generation, at least mine.
“It’s definitely difficult because it’s almost choosing between two evils. I definitely understand how difficult it could be for the candidates themselves.”
She said she sees no quick and easy solutions for inflation, as raising salaries could also increase the prices of goods.
“At the end of the day, we’ve had so many experiences where one candidate says one thing, and then they just never do it,” she said.
Romero knows who she’s voting for but declined to say.
Even though Haksheel Alleck, 23, an international student from Mauritius, can’t vote in this election, he’s concerned about illegal immigration and the nation’s geopolitical tension with other countries.
He said he’s also worried about how both candidates could affect visas for international students.
“It’s always on my mind: Would my visa still be relevant in the next few years? Would my status change [as] the political landscape changes here?” Alleck said.
Other students, acknowledging the voting enthusiasm in their social circles, expressed frustration with the choices of candidates.
“It’s really sad,” Max Denbow, 20, told The Epoch Times. “It’s also tough because ... each candidate has aspects that appeal to me, but I can’t get myself to vote for either of them.”
Denbow said he is writing in his own name on his ballot this year.
When asked what kind of message or agenda he’d like to hear from a future presidential candidate—either Republican or Democrat—to win his vote, he was quick to respond: “Someone that prioritizes unity. We need to be unified.”
