Think Tank Projects Debt Limit to Be Reached by October at Latest

The limit is how much the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

Stock market numbers are displayed on a screen at the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading, in New York City on June 2, 2023. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The debt ceiling is set to be reached between mid-July and early October, according to a March 24 projection by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The limit is how much the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

The Bipartisan Policy Center based its prediction on numerous factors including the amount of tariff and tax revenues, increased disaster relief spending, and the state of the economy.

The think tank relied on data from the Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office.

“Fiscal responsibility is not just about avoiding financial calamity time and time again—it’s about ensuring economic stability and paying our bills on time,” Bipartisan Policy Center President and CEO Margaret Spellings said in a statement.

“This year presents many opportunities to begin getting our fiscal house in order without risking the full faith and credit of the United States.

“Policymakers must commit to responsible budgeting, which starts with avoiding debt limit brinksmanship and its impacts on our economy.”    

In 2023, the debt ceiling was suspended through Jan. 2, 2025, as part of a deal between then-President Joe Biden and then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) that included scaling back COVID-19 relief funds and strengthening work requirements for recipients of the Department of Agriculture’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

There is currently a stand-off between the House and the Senate on whether to increase the debt ceiling through reconciliation—which allows for bills tied to the national debt, taxing, and spending to bypass the filibuster in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to advance most legislation.

Both houses of Congress must pass an identical budget resolution to proceed to a reconciliation bill.

The House budget blueprint calls for increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion over two years, while the Senate’s does not.

There has been debate over whether to include a limit increase in a bill consisting of disaster relief funds.

“Lawmakers cannot afford to delay action on the debt limit,” Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in a statement.

“Congress has a full plate in 2025, but addressing debt limit well ahead of the X Date should rise to the top of the priority list right now.

“History has shown that even approaching the X Date can lead to market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and reduced confidence in U.S. fiscal stability.” 

Were the debt ceiling not extended, it would lead to the United States defaulting on its financial obligations.