California Republicans flipped two House seats and defied the odds by defending several others during the 2022 midterms, helping the GOP regain a narrow House majority that is at stake in 2024.
Replicating that success may be difficult in November, as defeating seven of California’s 11 Republican House incumbents is a top national focus for Democrats in 2024, especially the six who were victorious in the 2022 elections in congressional districts won in 2020 by President Joe Biden.
Republicans see opportunities too, though. The GOP believes it can qualify dozens of candidates during California’s March 5 primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents and flip as many as three seats come November. California is one of five states staging general primaries concurrently with their Super Tuesday party presidential preference polls.
Voters in 16 states—15 of which are Republican—will cast ballots on March 5 in presidential primaries and caucuses, and Super Tuesday is also the beginning of the broader 2024 election cycle. California, Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas are staging general primaries alongside their March 5 presidential polls.
General primary ballots across the five states feature a mix of city, county, school board, state legislature, and state office elections, covering a collective 115 congressional districts.
The March 5 congressional races in California and Texas—for a combined total of 90 seats—are the largest single-day batch of House preliminaries in the 2024 election cycle.
Under California’s nonpartisan, ranked-choice primary system, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The two highest-placing candidates in the March 5 primary advance to November’s general election, even if both are from the same party.
This makes California’s Super Tuesday House primaries a contest among 241 candidates—124 are Democrats, 88 Republicans—for 102 November berths.
In 2022, Republicans flipped two seats and unexpectedly survived several tight reelection battles, turning a 42–11 Democrat bloc into a 40–12 Democrat bloc.
It’s actually a 40–11–1 Democrat bloc since Jan. 1. The only one of the 12 GOP-held California U.S. House seats without an incumbent seeking reelection in 2024 is Congressional District 20 (CD 20), vacated by Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who resigned on Dec. 31, 2023, after being deposed as House speaker.
There are 11 candidates, including seven Republicans, in the March 5 primary for Mr. McCarthy’s former Bakersfield-area seat. Among the leading GOP candidates in a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 46.5 percent to 27 percent are former McCarthy staffer and four-term state Assemblyman Vince Fong, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, and David Giglio, a businessman who also ran in 2022.
Democrat Marisa Wood, who finished second in the 2022 primary, is also on the ballot and could secure a spot again. In an Emerson College poll conducted from Jan. 26 to Jan. 29 of 565 likely voters, Mr. Fong received 27 percent of the vote and Mr. Boudreaux and Ms. Wood each received 11 percent.
GOP Hit List
Nine of the 52 congressional district primaries have only two candidates, meaning the March 5 slate is also the Nov. 5 ballot. Four are 2022 rematches, with at least twice that many possible pending results from the 43 preliminary Super Tuesday contests.The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily rate the race as “Likely Democratic.” Inside Elections and CNalysis call the district “Solid D.”
There are 10 candidates on the CD 47 primary card, including four Democrats and three Republicans. Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls the race a toss-up, the Cook Political Report and CNalysis rate it as “Lean Democratic,” Inside Elections defines it as “Tilt D,” and Elections Daily calls it “Likely Democratic.”
Near certain to earn a CD 47 November berth is former state assemblyman and Orange County Republican Party chair Scott Baugh, who finished second behind Ms. Porter in 2022’s general election.
Lead Democrat candidates include state Sen. Dave Min, a 2016 candidate for the district, and community activist Joanna Weiss.
All three have raised more than $1 million in their primary campaigns: Mr. Baugh has raised $1.9 million, Ms. Weiss $1.56 million, and Mr. Min $1.55 million.
Mr. Levin, who won the district in 2022 with 52.6 percent of the vote, began the year with $1.2 million in his campaign kitty—after spending $1 million on the campaign already—and has a significant polling advantage in a race that all five elections rating services call “Likely Democratic.”
Vying for the November shot to knock Mr. Levin off are Entravision executive Margarita Wilkinson, auto dealer Matt Gunderson, automotive marketer Sheryl Adams, and nonprofit CEO and Marine Corps veteran Kate Monroe, who is endorsed by the California Republican Party.
Seven challengers, including three Democrats, are taking on Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is seeking a 19th term, in the March 5 primary, and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), running for a 17th term, shares the primary ballot with four candidates, including two Democrats.
Both longtime liberals are expected to advance to November reelections but not, apparently, unchallenged.
Democrats’ Hit List
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified 33 GOP-held “districts in play” to flip in 2024. On the top of that list are seven of California’s 11 GOP incumbents.Mr. Salas is seeking a general election rematch. But he’s not the only 2022 rival again challenging Mr. Valadao.
Former Fresno city councilor and cattle rancher Chris Mathys, a Trump-aligned conservative likely not pleased with Mr. Valadao’s January 2021 vote to impeach the former president, is again on the CD 22 primary ballot and, again, aiming directly at the incumbent. Mr. Mathys came within 1,200 votes of knocking Mr. Valadao out of the race during 2022’s primary.
State Sen. Melissa Hurtado is also on the ticket. Mr. Valadao had a $1.442 million campaign war chest as of Jan. 1, far more than any of his challengers.
Mr. Valadao is one of five California Republicans who won 2022 elections in House districts President Biden won in 2020. He is one of four GOP incumbents in races The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily call a toss-up. Inside Elections gives it a “Tilt R” rating, and CNalysis classifies it as “Tilt D.”
Mr. Garcia, reelected with 53.2 percent of the vote in 2022, is being matched dollar-for-dollar in fundraising by Mr. Whitesides, with both campaigns topping $3 million.
He is one of five California Republicans who won 2022 elections in House districts President Biden won in 2020 and one of four GOP incumbents seeking reelection in a race rated as a toss-up.
Nurse Anna Nevenich, a Democrat, is the only other candidate on the March 5 ballot.
Both campaigns have raised more than $3 million, each entering 2024 with more than $2.2 million in their coffers.
Mr. Calvert is one of five California Republicans who won 2022 elections in House districts President Biden won in 2020 and one of four GOP incumbents seeking reelection in a race rated as a toss-up.
In 2022, first-term Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) garnered 50.2 percent to narrowly beat former State Assemblyman Adam Gray and flip CD 13. He’ll have to do that again against Mr. Gray to keep the seat.
Mr. Duarte began 2024 with nearly $1 million more in his campaign kitty than Mr. Gray. He is one of four California House Republicans seeking reelection in a race that Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Elections Daily, and CNalysis all rate as a toss-up.
Ms. Kim was reelected with 56.8 percent of the CD 40 vote in 2022 and is one of five California Republicans who won 2022 elections in House districts President Biden won in 2020.
She is most likely to face off in November against Mr. Kerr, who is endorsed by former California Gov. Jerry Brown and current Gov. Gavin Newsom. His fundraising advantage over Ms. Damikolas is overshadowed by Ms. Kim’s campaign war chest of $2.536 million.
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily rate the CD 40 race as “Likely Republican” with CNalysis giving the district a “Lean R” classification.
Ms. Steel, who won CD 45 with 52.4 percent of the vote in 2022, is one of five California Republicans who won 2022 elections in House districts President Biden won in 2020.
She shares the March 5 primary ballot with attorney and TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt, Garden Grove City Councilor Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza, attorney Aditya Pai, and Consumer Attorneys of California board member Derek Tran.
Ms. Steel enters the 2024 campaign with more than $3 million cash on hand, dwarfing opponents’ fundraising efforts.
Despite that Democrats have a CD 45 voter registration edge over Republicans, 38 percent to 32.5 percent, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Bal, and Elections Daily rate the race as “Lean Republican,” and CNalysis gives it a “Tilt R” classification.
The DCCC may see CD 3 as flippable, but The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball see the race as “Likely Republican,” with Elections Daily and CNalysis describing CD 3 as “Lean R.”
