The National Republican Congressional Campaign (NRCC) has identified 37 House seats currently occupied by “vulnerable” Democrats it aims to flip in 2024, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has its sights set on unseating 33 “vulnerable” Republican representatives in its “2024 Districts In Play” scorecard.
On both parties’ target lists are 23 House incumbents in “crossover districts,” seats won by candidates of one party in a district that voted for the other party’s nominee in the most recent presidential election, including 18 Republicans and five Democrats.
Of the 70 seats being targeted by the rival parties, the 23 crossover districts are likely to be the most contested and, potentially, most consequential in determining whether Republicans can retain or expand their 222–212 House majority when the 119th Congress convenes in January 2025, or whether Democrats can regain control of the chamber they held from 2018 to 2022.
Although Republicans’ predicted “red wave” didn’t materialize during the 2022 elections, the GOP gained enough House seats to narrowly flip the chamber as the party doubled the number of wins in crossover districts from nine in 2020 to 18 in 2022.
Of those 18 Republicans who won 2022 elections in districts President Joe Biden won in 2020, five did so in districts the president took by double-digits two years earlier. Only one Democrat—Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska)—scored a similar victory during the midterms.
Had voters in those six districts voted in 2022 in line with their 2020 presidential tally, the GOP’s House edge would have been whittled to 218–217.
Republicans’ House List
The NRCC’s target list of 37 House districts posted in March includes the five crossover districts won by Democrats in 2022 and 32 others that “represent prime pick-up opportunities” for 2024 Republican candidates.The 37 districts are in 23 states, including three each in California, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
The list includes 35 Democrat incumbents and two open seats now held by Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who are running for the Senate after winning two of the most expensive congressional reelection campaigns in history in 2022.
Of the five crossover districts, according to the NRCC, Ms. Peltola’s district, which is the entire state of Alaska, may be the most vulnerable. Former President Donald Trump won Alaska by 10.1 percentage points in 2020, 53.1 to 43 percent.
Ms. Peltola, nevertheless, won the state’s only congressional seat by a 10-point margin over 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, meaning she outperformed her party by 20 points.
The other four Democrats who won 2022 House seats in districts President Trump won in 2020 are Rep. Jared Golden in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, who outperformed his party by 6.1 percent; Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, who outperformed her party by 2.9 percent; Rep. Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, who also outperformed his party by 2.9 percent; and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.
Although the GOP target list includes a raft of Democrats who won by single digits—Reps. Dina Titus of Nevada, Val Hoyle of Oregon, Seth Magaziner of Rhode Island, and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas—it also features several Democrats who won their 2022 races by at least 12 percentage points, including Reps. Josh Harder of California, Darren Soto of Florida, and Jeff Jackson of North Carolina.
All but one of the 29 Democrat incumbents the DCCC itself identified as vulnerable and in need of buttressing are on the NRCC’s 2024 target list.
Top Priority: California, Michigan Open Seats
The NRCC believes it can flip three seats in California, which lost a congressional district to reapportionment after the 2020 U.S. Census, to trim back Democrats’ 40–12 congressional delegation dominance.Mr. Harder in California’s 9th District and Democrat Rep. Mike Levin in California’s 49th District can be beaten, the GOP maintains, and a Republican can win the open seat being vacated by Ms. Porter in the 47th District.
More than $40 million was spent on the 47th District midterm race won by Ms. Porter over Republican challenger state Assemblyman Scott Baugh.
Despite that Ms. Porter’s campaign spent more than $28 million, nearly nine times what Mr. Baugh’s campaign did, she won reelection by less than 9,000 votes, or about 3 percent, in the coastal Orange County district between Long Beach and San Clemente, which had once been a Republican stronghold.
Mr. Baugh is among six Republicans who have filed candidacies for the 47th District. Six Democrats are also seeking the open seat, including Joanna Weiss, founder of the Women for American Values and Ethics Action Fund, and state Sen. Dave Min, who was arrested for allegedly driving under the influence in May.
As in Alaska, under California’s ranked-choice system, all candidates will be on the same March 5, 2024, primary ballot. The top two, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November.
California’s 47th District is rated as a toss up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Inside Elections rates the district as leaning Democratic.
In Michigan, which elected seven Democrats and six Republicans to Congress in 2022, the GOP is targeting Reps. Hillary Scholten in the 3rd District and Dan Kildee in the 8th District, in addition to the 7th District seat being vacated by Ms. Slotkin.
More than $40 million was spent in Michigan’s 7th District race in 2022, with nearly $28 million coming from outside spending by political action committees (PACs) and other advocacy groups, according to Open Secrets.
Ms. Slotkin’s campaign spent more than $11.3 million in her 2022 campaign, about five times what Republican challenger Tom Barrett’s campaign spent, to win the election by about 20,000 votes.
As of Sept. 25, Mr. Barrett is the only Republican registered to run in 2024 for Michigan’s 7th District. He would take on Democrat Curtis Hertel, the only Democrat filed in the race. The filing deadline is Jan. 31, 2024, and the primary—if needed—is Aug. 6.
Other Democrat ‘Must-Go’ Notables
In Ohio, where Republicans outnumber Democrats 10–5 in the congressional delegation, the GOP aims to enlarge its majority by defeating Rep. Greg Landsman in the 1st District, Ms. Kaptur, who has represented the 9th District since 1983, and Rep. Emilia Sykes in the 13th District.In Pennsylvania, the NRCC maintains that Rep. Susan Wild in the 7th District, Mr. Cartwright in the 8th District, and Rep. Chris Deluzio in the 17th District, all Democrats, can be defeated by Republicans in 2024. Pennsylvania’s 17-member congressional delegation has nine Democrats and eight Republicans.
In North Carolina, where voters sent seven Republicans and seven Democrats to the House in 2022, the NRCC has identified Democrat Reps. Don Davis in the 1st District, Wiley Nickel in the 13th District, and Jeff Jackson in the 14th District as vulnerable.
In Nevada, where Democrats hold a 3–1 congressional delegation advantage, all three Democrat incumbents in their Las Vegas-area districts—Ms. Titus in the 1st District, Rep. Susie Lee in the 3rd District, Rep. Steven Horsford in the 4th District—are on the Republicans’ “must go” list.
More than $20 million was spent by outside groups in Nevada’s 1st and 3rd district elections, which saw incumbents Ms. Titus and Ms. Lee narrowly reelected in what are expected to again be battleground districts in 2024.
There are at least five “vulnerable” Democrat incumbents on the GOP list who won 2022 elections despite being outspent by Republicans, according to Open Secrets.
They are Reps. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th District, Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, Pat Ryan in New York’s 18th District, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado’s 8th District, and Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico’s 2nd District.
New Mexico’s 2nd District, which has changed parties in the past three elections, will feature a rematch between Mr. Vasquez and former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, who lost the seat to the Democrat in 2022 after ousting Democrat Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in 2020.
Democrats in New York State of Mind
The DCCC posted its list of 33 “Districts in Play” for 2024 in April. It includes 31 districts across 15 states occupied by “vulnerable” Republicans, and the same two open California and Michigan seats that the NRCC has identified as priorities.According to the DCCC, the GOP wrestled control of the House across several races by a combined 6,675 votes.
Eighteen of the 31 Republican incumbents on the Democrats’ “must go” list won 2022 elections in crossover districts that President Biden won in 2020, including five who won by more than double-digit percentage points.
According to the DCCC, seven of California’s 12 Republican House representatives are vulnerable, as are six in New York, two in Florida, and two each in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Among notable Republican House incumbents being targeted by Democrats as “vulnerable” are Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 3rd District—reelected by 546 votes in 2022, the nation’s narrowest midterm Congressional win—Rep. Ryan Zinke in Montana’s 1st District, who also served as secretary for the Department of the Interior during the Trump administration, and the embattled Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd District.
In seizing the longtime Democrat stronghold of New York’s 3rd District from Democrats, Mr. Santos outperformed Republicans in the district—where President Biden won by 8.2 percent in 2020—by 16.4 percent in 2022, a feat he is unlikely to achieve in 2024.
Not only is a formidable slate of Democrats seeking the party’s nod to win the seat in November, but also, Mr. Santos faces a stiff primary challenge from at least seven Republicans as of Sept. 26, including Air Force veterans with Wall Street backgrounds Kellen Curry and Gregory Hach and New York Police Department detective Mike Sapraicone.
New York’s 3rd District is one of six crossover congressional districts in New York where Democrats believe they can unseat first-term incumbent Republicans who won narrow midterm victories on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.
In addition to the DCCC, New York Democrat candidates’ campaigns in these six districts are receiving a $45 million boost from congressional Democrats’ House Majority PAC New York Fund.
The House Majority PAC may have New York especially on its mind because Republican Rep. Mike Lawler defeated House Democrats’ midterm campaign chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 18th District.
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who represented New York’s 17th District from 2021 to 2023, and Liz Gereghty are among the Democrats lining up to challenge Mr. Lawler in a district President Biden won by 10 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Lawler outperformed other GOP candidates by nearly 11 percent in 2022.
The other four “vulnerable” Republican incumbents in New York include Rep. Brandon Williams in central New York’s 22nd District which President Biden won by 7.4 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Williams outperformed the party by 8.5 percent in 2022.
The others are Rep. Marc Molinaro in the 19th District in the Hudson Valley, which President Biden won by 4.6 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Molinaro outperformed the party by 6.8 percent in 2022; Rep. Anthony Esposito in the 4th District, which the president won by 14.6 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Esposito outperformed the party by 18.3 percent in 2022; and Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st District, which the president won by 0.2 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. LaLota outperformed the party by 12 percent in 2022.
A Deeper California Blue
In California, Democrats are targeting seven of 12 Republican incumbents, including five who won 2022 elections in crossover districts that President Biden took in 2020 and in which they outperformed other Republican candidates in 2022.None were closer than Republican Rep. John Duarte’s victory over Democrat Assemblyman Adam Gray by 564 votes out of 133,556 ballots cast in California’s 13th District, the second-closest midterm congressional election in the nation behind only Ms. Boebert’s Colorado squeaker.
In 2024, Mr. Duarte will again face Mr. Gray in a district that President Biden won by nearly 11 percent in 2020 and where, as of early 2023, Democrat voter registration surpassed Republican registration 43 percent to 28 percent.
California crossover district Republicans on the DCCC’s “must-go” list include Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd District, which President Biden won by 13 percent in 2020.
Mr. Valadao was among 10 Republicans who supported the second impeachment of President Trump and one of only two who were reelected. Four, including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), were defeated in primaries, and four opted to retire from the House.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) also won reelection in California’s 27th District, which President Biden won by 12.4 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Garcia outperformed the party by 20.8 percent in 2022.
The others are in Orange County: Rep. Young Kim in the 40th District, which President Biden won by 1.9 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Kim outperformed the party by 16.3 percent, and Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th District, which President Biden won by 6.1 percent in 2020 and in which Ms. Steel outperformed the party by 12.6 percent in 2022.
The 47th District seat being vacated by Ms. Porter is on the Democrats’ and Republicans’ California target lists, as are GOP incumbent Reps. Kevin Kiley in the 3rd District and Ken Calvert in the 41st District, both of whom outperformed other GOP candidates to secure narrow 2022 wins.
GOP ‘Over-Performers’ Targeted
House Democrats also believe they can defeat two Republican incumbents in Arizona, where, as in many states, post-2020 U.S. Census reapportionment and redistricting altered the playing field in two key purple districts.They are Rep. Juan Ciscomani in the 6th District, where President Biden won by 0.1 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Ciscomani outperformed the party by 1.5 percent in 2022, and Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), which Mr. Biden won by 1.5 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Schweikert outperformed the party by 2.3 percent in 2022.
Mr. Schweikert earned a seventh term in Congress by narrowly defeating Democrat challenger Jevin Hodge in their midterm matchup in the 1st District, which includes Scottsdale and parts of north Phoenix and is ranked a “toss-up” by Cook Political Report.
A formidable lineup of Democrats is seeking the party nod to unseat Mr. Schweikert in the 1st District, including former state Assistant Attorney General Andrei Cherny, Phoenix orthodontist Andrew Horne, philanthropic organization executive Kurt Kroemer, state Rep. Amish Shah, an emergency room and sports medicine doctor, and former television journalist Marlene Galán-Woods, the widow of former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods.
Other notable Republican incumbents on the DCCC’s 2024 congressional target list include Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska’s 2nd District, which President Biden won by 6.4 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Bacon outperformed the party by 9.3 percent in 2022, and Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 7th District, which President Biden won by 3.8 percent in 2020 and in which Mr. Kean outperformed the party by 7.5 percent in 2022 but where Republicans now outnumber Democrats by 16,000 voters.
Mr. Kean, the son of a former New Jersey governor, defeated Democrat incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski by about 2 percent in a rematch of their equally narrow 2020 race, in a suburban district described as among the most median among the nation’s 435 seats.
Among Democrats running are Working Families Alliance Chief Sue Altman, Roselle Park Mayor Joseph Signorello, and Jason Blazakis, a former U.S. State Department counterterrorism finance official.
Democrats are also targeting first-term Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd District, which has median characteristics like New Jersey’s 7th District and is among an arc of suburban purple districts outside Washington on the state’s tidewater area.
Ms. Kiggans unseated fellow Navy veteran Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in their 2022 midterm race by less than 4 percent in a district President Biden won by 1.9 percent in 2020, and she outperformed her party by 5.3 in 2022.
Among Democrats seeking to challenge Ms. Kiggans in 2024 is Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran, Chesapeake Bay Commission board member, and Old Dominion University adjunct professor.
