Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan pulled off a narrow win in Tuesday’s contentious GOP primary runoff against David Covey.
The hotly contested race split GOP supporters into two camps: those who backed Mr. Phelan’s push—alongside Democratic House members—to impeach Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton one year ago and those who did not.
Tuesday’s result was a reversal from March’s primary, when Mr. Covey received 46.3 percent of the vote to Mr. Phelan’s 43.3 percent, pushing the two Republicans into a runoff. A third candidate, Alicia Davis, received only 10.5 percent of the votes.
In his first run at elected office, Mr. Covey, a former Orange County Republican chair, drew strong endorsements from state and national GOP leaders, including former President Donald Trump, Mr. Paxton, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. But their backing still didn’t deliver the desired results at the polls earlier this week.
Meanwhile, Mr. Phelan gained endorsements from Republican strategist Karl Rove and former Republican leaders, including Texas’ longest-serving governor, Rick Perry, and former U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
His win aligns him for a sixth term in the Texas House, as he has no Democratic opponent in the November general election. But whether he will continue as the House speaker for the 2025 legislative session is yet to be determined.
“With the conclusion of the runoff, my sights are now set firmly on the November election. I look forward to hitting the ground running to ensure the Texas House is best positioned for what promises to be another landmark conservative session, bolstered by as strong a Republican majority as possible,” Mr. Phelan said.
Reactions
Mr. Phelan’s victory sparked strong reactions from a number of his GOP foes.Mr. Paxton claimed Mr. Phelan won the runoff with votes from Democrats.
“Texans, we can no longer ignore the betrayal we witnessed in this election,” he said in a news release Tuesday night. "Dade Phelan, in a desperate attempt to secure his political future, orchestrated a strategy that relied on Democrats voting for him in the Republican runoff. He knew he couldn’t win on his own merit, so he sought to bolster his chances by courting Democrat support in his district.
“The Covey campaign has identified at least 1,442 Democrats who voted early in Jefferson County, making up 20% of Jefferson County’s early vote numbers,” he continued. “Without Democrats, Dade never would have won.”
Mr. Paxton said it is time for Texas to end open primaries, which allow voters to cast their ballots without declaring party affiliation.
“We cannot stand idly by. We must close our primaries. Tonight, weak and liberal Republican incumbents lost across the State of Texas, but Democrats swooped in and saved Dade Phelan. This kind of underhanded manipulation cannot be tolerated. The Republican Party of Texas must take immediate action to secure our Republican primaries,” Mr. Paxton said.
Mr. Patrick also asserted that Mr. Phelan won with Democrat support.
“Dade won the Runoff by 366 votes out of 25,260 votes cast, with over 1,400 Democrats voting for him,” he continued. “Dade’s actions cost 15 Republican incumbents their reelection. He threw them under the bus, but he still wants to drive. That’s not leadership. That’s a debacle!”
Mr. Paxton also issued a warning to Republican House members who plan to support Mr. Phelan as speaker in the next legislative session.
What do Political Experts Say?
Primary and runoff elections typically see a lower turnout than general elections, which some say may have contributed to this election, in which the results were flipped.“Primaries are already lower turnout elections,” said Kirby Goidel, professor and director of Texas A&M’s Public Policy Research Institute in College Station, in an interview with The Epoch Times. “Runoffs are typically even worse, even when they are closely watched with lots of spending.
“This is something we have been watching in special elections, where Democrats have over-performed, that may have played out here,” he continued. “MAGA voters that might turnout for statewide (or presidential) elections, the type of voter that Trump and Paxton were attempting to mobilize, may be less inclined to vote in this type of election. They may need Trump on the ballot.”
Mr. Goidel did note caution in “over-interpreting” the results, as this race was highly visible and had a large amount of money involved.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, told The Epoch Times that a combination of factors helped propel Mr. Phelan into the win column.
One important piece was the support he had from the Austin lobby and multiple billionaires, which included real estate mogul Harlan Crow and Texans for Lawsuit Reform co-founder Dick Weekley, along with Mr. Perry and Ms. Hutichison, he said.
“He also had a great ground game and did an excellent job in identifying and mobilizing moderate Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who normally don’t vote in the Republican primaries to turn out and vote in this runoff,” Mr. Jones continued.
Mr. Goidel said that while it is “possible” that Democrats helped Mr. Phela win, he pointed out that if the same number who voted for Mr. Covey in the primary had turned for the runoff, Mr. Covey would have been the winner.
They also say Mr. Phelan benefited from name recognition in his home county.
“Especially in the Jefferson County portion of the district, which is about 40 percent,” Mr. Jones said. “His family is well known. He’s well known, and you combine that with the strong financial backing … and endorsements of some high profile former Republican officials.”
Mr. Covey, on the other hand, did not get the votes expected from his home county.
“What’s clear is that did not do very well in Orange County compared to how he should have done given the conservative lean of Orange County, the strong support for Donald Trump in Orange County, and the fact that Phelan’s ties are much weaker in Orange County,” Mr. Jones said, adding that Mr. Covey racked up large margins in Jasper County where he’s “not as well known.”
Party divisions are likely to continue despite the more conservative wing’s attempts to remove moderate Republicans.
“Overall, there was a strong concerted effort by the more conservative wing of the Texas Republican Party to oust Dade Phelan,” Mr. Jones said. “It failed and as a result feeling is [Phelan is] likely to return as speaker in 2025. I wouldn’t want to say he’s a lock. But we have to say he’s the odds-on favorite to remain speaker during the next legislative session.”
But a change from the old guard of the Texas Republican Party looms as they are “increasingly under attack” for leaning with their Democratic colleagues.
“Finally, it is amazing what is going on with the Texas GOP. Despite the occasional issue that garners national attention, Texas has mostly been a state controlled by ‘Chamber of Commerce’ Republicans and it has benefited from that control,” Mr. Goidel explained. “Those Republicans, however, are increasingly under attack from MAGA-style populist Republicans (and are on the defensive). Phelan’s victory was definitely a win for the Grand Old Republican Party. Even so, it is not clear how long they can hold back that tide.”
