Stefanik Has a Chance at NY Governorship: Polls

Stefanik, formerly nominated by Donald Trump as the U.N. Ambassador, is the likely GOP candidate for the NY gubernatorial.

House Republican Conference chair Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) speaks at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 16, 2024. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

NEW YORK CITY—Recent polling suggests that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) would win the Republican nomination for the New York gubernatorial race. This comes after hints at her entering the race for the governorship.

Political analytics firm GrayHouse released polling data on April 27. The data showed that Stefanik, 40, would win a GOP Primary against Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Stefanik would take 44 percent of the votes, Lawler would take 7, and Blakeman would score 5. The undecided make up 44 percent. All three are considered likely to run.

Stefanik was asked if she believes she would be a better GOP nominee than Blakeman by NY1 on April 16.

“I think there are a lot of candidates that are in the mix,” she replied. “I’m honored to have my name in the mix as well. I think we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fire Kathy Hochul once and for all. For so long, Democrats have had a one-party rule in Albany, and it has caused a decay in our state.”

The GrayHouse poll shows that 61 percent of NY voters say it’s time for someone new to be governor. Among Independent and Democratic voters, 75 percent and 34 percent said they want someone else as governor.

A Siena College poll from April 14 put Hochul’s approval rating at 44 percent, and disapproval at 43 percent. Marist Poll’s April 15 polling data put Hochul’s approval at 39 percent, and disapproval at 46 percent.

According to Marist Poll, Hochul’s approval rating has remained the same since April 2024, and disapproval rose from 42 percent to 46.

One advantage Stefanik has is name recognition. According to the GrayHouse poll, her name recognition with New Yorkers is 69 percent. Lawler and Blakman are behind with 58 and 36 percent name recognition.

Her lead in name recognition is likely from ties to the Trump administration. President Donald Trump chose Stefanik to serve as United Nations ambassador. He pulled his nomination in late March to help keep the slim House GOP majority.

In a gubernatorial election between Hochul and Stefanik, polling shows Hochul winning with 46 percent. Stefanik would get 40 percent, 14 percent are undecided.

New York is still a blue state but the state has seen more GOP votes in recent years. Trump gained 600,000 votes in the state between the 2016 and 2024 elections.

Hochul preemptively attacked any GOP nominees. She told reporters on April 16, “No matter who the GOP nominee is next year that I’m running against, it will be an extreme MAGA Republican, and I look forward to that fight.”

The election for the next New York governor will take place on Nov. 3, 2026.

Neither Stefanik’s or Hochul’s office has given a statement to The Epoch Times in time for publishing.