S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Reports US Home Prices Registering 3.9 Percent Yearly Growth

A for sale sign displayed in front of a home in Miami, Fla., on Feb. 22, 2023. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Home price gains moderated in September, with the growth rate especially slowing down in the South, according to a recent report from S&P Global.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index grew by 3.9 percent year over year in September, the company said in a Nov. 26 statement. This is a lower growth rate than the 4.3 percent annual gain in August. The index measures single-family home price changes across nine U.S. Census divisions. Both 10-city and 20-city indexes also registered a slower pace of growth in September.

“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” said Brian D. Luke, S&P’s head of commodities, real, and digital assets. “We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago.

“The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8 percent, barely above current inflation levels.”

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at real estate data company Bright MLS, pointed out in a Nov. 27 commentary that the 3.9 percent gain in September was the lowest annual jump since August 2023.

So far, a lack of supply has been providing upside support for home prices. However, the price gains could slow in the fourth quarter and into 2025 as more inventories enter the market, the economist noted. Existing home inventories have now risen for 11 months straight.

The index has traditionally “shown an increase in home price growth between August and September,” Sturtevant said. “This year, the September data could be indicative of a slowdown in home price appreciation in the months ahead.”

Dorian Sadellari, founder of Alliance Business Advisors, said in a Nov. 26 X post that the slowdown in annual home price gains suggests a potential recalibration could be underway in the housing market.

“This data paints a picture of a market in transition—balancing slower price appreciation with steady underlying demand. It’s a trend worth watching closely for broader housing implications and potential policy adjustments,” he wrote.

Housing Market Situation

In October, home prices registered their 12th consecutive monthly gain, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a recent report. While high mortgage rates are restricting home price growth, the shortage of properties for sale keeps buoying prices, the company noted.

“Many people—especially first-time buyers—were waiting until after the election to make a decision about buying a home,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari.

“Now the election is over, we have started to see signs that homebuyer demand is coming back. That could lead to increased competition in coming months, possibly pushing prices higher unless we see a major spike in the number of homes being listed.”

Mortgage rates declined in September but have bounced back since then. The average weekly rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is hovering near 7 percent.

Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, pointed out that rates have largely remained flat in recent weeks, a trend he attributes to markets awaiting more clarity on economic policies.

“Potential homebuyers are also waiting on the sidelines, causing demand to be lackluster," he said. “Despite the low sales activity, inventory has only modestly improved and remains dramatically undersupplied.”

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that sales of new single-family homes fell by 17.3 percent in October from the previous month to the lowest level in almost two years.

Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), said the decline reflects a “slowdown in buyer activity amid broader economic uncertainty.”

Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, said that elevated rates and high home prices continue to exacerbate the challenges facing prospective buyers.

“Despite these headwinds, which also include increased material costs for builders, new construction remains a vital part of the market, especially in areas with low existing home inventory,” she said.