SoCal Could See Northridge-Size Earthquake in Next 30 Years: Expert

Troops of the California National Guard erect a tent to house earthquake victims at the Winnetka Recreation Center in Northridge, Calif., on Jan. 22, 1994. The National Guard is building tent cities at various public parks to house thousands of people who are afraid to return home or whose homes were damaged by the Northridge earthquake on Jan. 17, 1994. Bob Pearson/AFP via Getty Images

Scientists studying earthquake fault zones in the Los Angeles and Orange County region said there’s a possibility for the area to experience a tremor comparable to the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake in the next 30 years.

Southern California was too far away to be affected by recent earthquake activity in Mexico’s Michoacán area Sept. 19 and 20 but there is a good chance for destructive quakes in the region, Morgan Page, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, Calif., told The Epoch Times.

“We estimate the chance of a Northridge-sized event or bigger in L.A. in the next 30 years is about 60 percent,” Page said.

The dashed red line shows the approximate location of the Palos Verdes Fault zone based on a sonar profile off the shore of Southern California. The United States Geological Survey/Public Domain

The magnitude-6.7 Northridge earthquake struck on Jan. 17, 1994—Martin Luther King Day—and was one of the state’s most destructive and costliest. Fifty-seven people died as a result of the disaster, nearly 9,000 were hurt and structural damage was estimated at up to $50 billion.

In the latest study of seismic threats in Los Angeles, researchers at Harvard University concluded the Palos Verdes fault zone that extends across southwestern Los Angeles and into Orange County could produce an earthquake measuring up to a magnitude of 7.8.

Aykui Alaverdyan walks over rubble after taking some of her belongings from her Hollywood Boulevard apartment building, which was destroyed in the Northridge earthquake, in Hollywood, Calif., Jan. 20, 1994. Tim Clary/AFP via Getty Images

Page agreed with the findings, saying although the fault is segmented, it’s a long structure and could potentially link up to make larger quakes. Earthquakes are measured exponentially, meaning a quake in the Palos Verdes fault zone could potentially be 45 times stronger—or more—than the Northridge quake.

However, some researchers expect this kind of larger quake to occur in 700 to 1,100 years.

“Luckily for us, the larger the earthquake, the less likely it is,” Page said.

People left homeless by the Northridge earthquake line up to make phone calls in a remote telephone facility in Canoga Park, Calif., Jan. 22, 1994. Mike Nelson/AFP via Getty Images

The Palos Verdes fault zone is mostly located offshore, which lessens the potential for severe damage to structures, she said.

Southern California has not had many notable earthquakes in the past couple of decades. Before that, the Northridge temblor was part of a cluster of quakes to shake the region in the 1990s. Earthquakes struck Joshua Tree (6.1), Landers (7.3), Big Bear (5.4) in 1992, causing millions of dollars in damage.

“We’re lucky that at least in the Los Angeles area, there haven’t been as many earthquakes in the last couple of decades, which is good news because earthquakes tend to cluster up in space and in time,” Page said. “When you have a period without earthquakes it means the next period is more likely to be quiet.”