California’s violent crime rate grew 1.7 percent last year and is up 5.4 percent since before the pandemic, and shoplifting incidents jumped by about 40 percent in 2023, according to a newly released report from the Public Policy Institute of California.
Statistically, the rate represents 503 crimes per 100,000 residents, according to the report, authored by Magnus Lofstrom, policy director of criminal justice and senior fellow with the institute, and research associate Brandon Martin.
Robberies climbed 3.8 percent—though they remain about 3 percent lower than in 2019—and the number of robberies involving a firearm increased by 11.5 percent compared with pre-pandemic figures.
Aggravated assaults increased by about 1.7 percent last year and are 27.4 percent higher than four years prior.
Not all crimes saw spikes, as homicides fell by 13.7 percent and rapes declined by about 3 percent. While down compared with the prior year, the number of homicides is 15.5 percent higher than pre-pandemic totals after jumping sharply between 2019 and 2021.
The Golden State experienced a bump in violent crime during 2020, as did other states nationwide, the authors wrote in the report.
Violent crime rates peaked in California in 1992 at 1,115 incidents per 100,000 residents and hit a 50-year low in 2014 at 391 crimes per 100,000 residents, according to the report.
In seven of the past 10 years, the rate has increased.
Across California, rates vary by region and type of crime. Counties in the lower part of the state—including Imperial, Orange, San Diego, and Ventura—had the lowest levels of violent crime in 2023.
The San Joaquin Valley—in the southern central part of the state—had the highest rate of violent crime at nearly twice the level of the lowest region.
Property crimes statewide dropped 0.8 percent from the year before—representing a 0.3 percent decline from 2019—which the authors note is the third-lowest rate since 1960. Only 2020 and 2021 saw lower numbers.
Auto thefts spiked by 8.6 percent and are nearly 43 percent more frequent than in 2019.
Shoplifting incidents jumped by about 40 percent in 2023 and are more than 29 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Statewide, property crime fell in 46 of California’s 58 counties—including drops of at least 10 percent in 29 counties.
Nine of the state’s 15 largest counties saw property crime decreases, including Kern, Fresno, and Santa Clara.
The other six largest counties experienced increases ranging from 1 percent to 28 percent, with Orange County on the low end of the spectrum and Alameda County topping the list with the largest jump in property crimes in 2023.
Rates of property crime were highest in the Bay Area at nearly 3,200 crimes per 100,000 residents and lowest in the mountainous Sierra region at about 1,200 incidents per 100,000.
Some law enforcement officials have questioned if Proposition 47, passed by voters in 2014 to lower prison populations by changing some felonies to misdemeanors, could be affecting the level of criminal activity.
“It’s become more difficult to effectively prosecute repeat offenders since Prop. 47 passed,” Vern Pierson, El Dorado County district attorney, told The Epoch Times.
Justice Department data show a nearly 32 percent jump in violent crimes and a 47.3 percent spike in aggravated assaults since the proposition passed a decade ago.
Underreporting and Lack of Data
With fewer consequences for theft crimes, some incidents are going unreported, according to legal experts.The state’s Little Hoover Commission studied the dilemma of underreporting and published a report in July that called for more data to better understand the issue.
“Little data is available,” the commission wrote in the report. “Retailers say that they rarely call law enforcement when theft occurs, and some law enforcement officials say there are few consequences even if citations are issued.”
One of the authors of the most recent fact sheet agreed that more information is needed.
“We don’t have sufficiently detailed data to really, truly help us,” Lofstrom told The Epoch Times. “The challenge there is that we don’t have the information on all the incidents, but more importantly, we don’t know how the degree of underreporting changes over time.”
With underreporting levels highly varied, it is challenging to quantify how many crimes are actually taking place, he said.
California’s Department of Justice also noted in its 2023 annual report published in July that comparing crime data in recent years with those prior to 2014 can yield inaccurate results due to changes made by Prop. 47.
“Caution should be used when comparing felony and misdemeanor arrest data from the current year to data from prior years,” the most recent report reads.
Voters will decide on Nov. 5 whether to change state law to strengthen penalties for repeat offenders of some crimes. Proposition 36 would repeal some aspects of Prop. 47 to allow prosecutors to charge felonies in certain instances, with an emphasis on incentives for offenders to participate in mental health and drug addiction treatment programs.
