The poll found that voters were split evenly: 47 percent would consider voting for a third-party candidate, while another 47 said they would not. The voters who said they would were overwhelming Independents, while the majority of Democrats and Republicans said they would not. Democrats were slightly more willing to switch their vote, with 61 percent considering it and 35 not considering it, compared to Republicans’ 57 percent and 38 percent.
“With neither President Biden nor former President Trump knocking it out of the park on favorability, almost half of the country would consider another option,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “No specific name for the candidate, no specific designation for the party, but it is a vivid indication that for many voters, the status quo is a no-go.”
Will Manchin Run Against Biden?
Eyes are currently on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as a possible third-party challenger, especially since Mr. Manchin appeared this week at a town hall hosted by No Labels, which is planning to raise $70 million to put a third-party candidate on the ballot.Politicians on both sides of the aisle have said a third-party ticket would only weaken support for Mr. Biden.
“And a poll would prove it,” he added. “By the way, we do all this talking. Just run a poll. Run a poll: Biden versus Trump. Then run the same poll: Biden, Trump, Manchin—and see who is affected. I know the answer.”
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told The Hill that Mr. Trump’s supporters were “baked in,” and an emerging third-party challenger would only divide the rest of the votes, making No Labels a threat to Mr. Biden’s campaign.
Hypothetical Candidate Wins Out: Poll
On Thursday, Monmouth University revealed poll results that showed a named third-party candidate would get less support than a hypothetical one.It found that just under half of voters said they would “definitely” (36 percent) or “probably” (11 percent) vote for Mr. Biden, and only about 4 in 10 voters would “definitely” (26 percent) or “probably” (14 percent) vote for Mr. Trump.
“In a replay of the 2020 election, some voters clearly feel they have to back a candidate they don’t really like. That suggests there may be an opening for a third party in 2024, but when you drill down further, there doesn’t seem to be enough defectors to make that a viable option,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
About a third of Americans are open to voting for a “fusion” third-party ticket that included both a Democrat and Republican, with twice as many voters saying they would not when Monmouth asked voters without naming a candidate.
But support dropped when they were asked whether they would vote for Mr. Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who joined Mr. Manchin at the No Labels town hall.
No Labels Says It Won’t Help Trump
The group has pledged to end its own campaign if polling shows Mr. Biden “way, way out ahead” of Mr. Trump.“No Labels is not and will not be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024,” Mr. Davis said. “After Super Tuesday next year [and] before the [No Labels] convention in Dallas in April, there will be a decision.”