WASHINGTON—Republicans are officially on track to retain their majority in the House of Representatives, handing the GOP control of the White House and both chambers of Congress in the new year.
At 10:30 p.m. on Nov. 13, The Associated Press (AP) projected that Republicans had won at least 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority in the lower chamber. Nine other races remain too close to call. If current margins hold, Republicans will win 221 seats in the House to Democrats’ 214.
Republicans are also projected to win at least 53 seats in the Senate, and President-elect Donald Trump is projected to win 312 electoral votes—a clean sweep of all seven swing states.
However, those margins will be somewhat reduced by the departure of at least three congressmen—Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)—who will serve in Trump’s administration, some pending Senate confirmation. Filling these seats will require a special election, potentially reducing Republicans’ effective majority for months.
However, each of these three seats is likely to return to GOP hands in such a contest.
During a Nov. 12 press conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) declared victory in the battle to keep control of the House.
“We did everything possible to ensure we could come to this moment,” Johnson said from the steps of the U.S. Capitol in front of a podium reading “New Day in America.”
“It is a new day in Washington; it is morning in America.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said at the press conference that Trump wouldn’t have to fight members of his own party this time, as he did when he entered office in 2017.
“The American people are hungry for [change], and they’re going to find a Republican leadership willing to work for them so they don’t have to struggle any longer,” Scalise said.
Johnson described the GOP win as “decisive.”
“The American people want us to implement and deliver that America First agenda,” he said.
He predicted that the 119th Congress could be “the most consequential Congress of the modern era,” saying, “We quite literally have to fix almost every metric of public policy. Everything is a mess.”
Still, control of the House remains unusually slim for Republicans in an otherwise favorable environment, particularly compared to the vast 47-seat House majority Trump enjoyed when he entered office in 2017.
Johnson, meanwhile, has indicated an intention to pursue the speakership for a second term. Doing so would require at least 218 votes, but Republicans’ narrow margins—and the opposition of many members to Johnson’s management of the House in the previous Congress—could make that difficult.
Most Incumbents Survive Challenges
On the Republican side, Reps. Jen Kiggans of Virginia, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, John James of Michigan, Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey, Zachary Nunn of Iowa, Don Bacon of Nebraska, and Mike Lawler of New York have already been declared the winners in their races.GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa also appears set to hold onto her seat with 99 percent of the vote counted, though AP hasn’t made a final call on that race.
On the Democrat side, incumbent Reps. Emilia Sykes of Ohio, Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Pat Ryan of New York have held off Republican challengers.
Democrats also appear favored to retain their incumbencies in several races that AP hasn’t called yet, such as Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Jared Golden (D-Maine).
Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), and newcomer Eugene Vindman—running for the Virginia seat vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who’s running for governor of Virginia—have already been declared victorious in their election bids.
As a corollary, few parties made many gains on either side of the aisle, though both parties did flip a handful of seats.
Most Republican gains came from the Rust Belt states, while Democrats managed to unseat at least three New York Republicans—Reps. Marc Molinaro, Brandon Williams, and Anthony D'Esposito.
In Michigan, Republicans picked up a seat in the state’s Seventh Congressional District, which was open after being vacated by Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who pursued and won the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).
In Pennsylvania, Republicans unseated two Democratic incumbents: Reps. Susan Wild and Matthew Cartwright.
Alaska’s single at-large district is still in play. It’s currently held by Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), whose 2022 victory for the seat was attributed by many to the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
It’s unclear whether Republican challenger Nick Begich will exceed the 50 percent threshold needed in the state to avoid a second round under the state’s voting system, which would likely benefit Peltola. Begich currently has 49 percent of the vote, with 94 percent of the votes counted, according to AP data.
In California, home to many seats Republicans won in 2022, counting is ongoing.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) is projected to lose his seat to Democratic challenger George Whitesides.
But otherwise, Republicans have largely retained their previous gains in the state, including wins by incumbents David Valadao Young Kim, and Ken Calvert.
Reps. John Duarte and Michelle Steel are on track to retain their seats, but the races have not yet been called.
