In November 2022, there were 34 United States Senate races on ballots across the nation. Despite having to defend 20 of those seats in the split 50-50 chamber, Republicans charged into the midterms certain that a swelling “red wave” would sweep them into a multi-seat majority.
That projected “red wave” crested early, failing to materialize. Although the GOP narrowly regained the House, Democrats seized control of the Senate, 51-49, marking the first time since 2006 that they gained midterm seats.
Republicans failed to unseat perceived “vulnerable” incumbent Senate Democrats in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Colorado. In fact, they lost a seat when Democrat Jon Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz to succeed the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.).
Less than two weeks after the disappointing midterms, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) was selected as National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair, succeeding Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
Under Mr. Scott, the NRSC was largely neutral in the 2022 GOP primaries. With little direction from the NRSC, former President Donald Trump backed 26 midterm Senate candidates.
All survived primaries to move on to general elections against Democrats, but Trump-endorsed candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Georgia faced difficult, often bitter, intra-party rock fights.
Although 16 of Mr. Trump’s Senate endorsements won in November 2022, another 10 lost general elections that Republicans believe they could have, should have, won. Of the GOP candidates who faced difficult spring/summer primaries, only Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) went on to win that fall.
Democrats point to the United States Supreme Court’s June 2022 repeal of Roe v. Wade as the galvanizing issue that blunted the GOP’s projected “red wave.”
But the NRSC also determined that party infighting, often involving Trump supporters wrangling with state party committees over candidates, also helped Democrats, especially in 2022’s Senate elections.
Things would be different in 2024, Mr. Daines vowed when he assumed NRSC’s chair. The committee would be more involved in identifying candidates to support to pare back the crowded fields that divided state parties, drained resources, and spit out bruised primary winners who lost general elections.
Under Mr. Daines, the NRSC has coordinated with the Senate Leadership Fund PAC directed by Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Mr. Trump in a concerted effort to avoid encouraging primary melees like those in 2022.
Good Math/Bad Math for GOP
And unlike 2022, the math in 2024 favors Republicans. There are 34 United States Senate elections across 33 states on the November 2024 ballot, with Democrats and independents defending 23 of them.Not only does the GOP have half as many seats to defend, but of the 11 Republican-held Senate seats in 10 states on 2024 ballots, nine incumbents are favored and the party is overwhelmingly expected to retain vacated seats in Indiana and Utah.
But again, another type of math could diminish the party’s 2024 Senate prospects.
While NRSC’s effort to streamline primary fields has whittled back the number of potentially damaging intra-party preliminary battles that marred the 2022 cycle, Republicans still face more contested 2024 primaries than Democrat Senate incumbents and candidates.
In fact, of 16 sitting Senate Democrats and three independents seeking new six-year terms, only one appears likely to incur a serious primary challenge—Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), who faces federal bribery charges.
Meanwhile, Republicans are bracing for combative Senate primaries in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Ohio with NRSC-endorsed candidates in Nevada, West Virginia, Montana, and Michigan drawing opposition from party rivals.
Of the 23 seats held by Democrats and independents, Republicans are projected to be at least competitive in as many as eight races and enter the cycle as favorites in three.
Four Democrat incumbents are in purple states where tight elections are standard: Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada), Robert Casey (D-Pa.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).
The RNSC has coalesced around GOP challengers Sam Brown in Nevada and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. Both surfaced as strong candidates in the 2022 primaries.
Wisconsin up for Grabs
In Wisconsin, the RNSC failed to persuade their preferred candidate Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) to take on Ms. Baldwin. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) also has declined to run for the Senate.Thus far, the only declared Republicans in the August 13, 2024, primary are Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein and University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point College Republicans Chair Rejani Raveendran.
With a June 3, 2024 filing deadline, Republicans allegedly considering entering the race are hedge fund manager and 2012 Senate candidate Eric Hovde, business owner and former race car driver Scott Mayer, and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke.
The NRSC’s priority races—those deemed most “flippable”—are in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, where three Democrat senators elected in 2018 are in states Trump won in 2020: Jon Tester (Mont.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), and Joe Manchin (W.V.), who has not confirmed whether he’s running in 2024 or if he’ll do so as an independent.
Meanwhile, Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is likely headed for a three-way November battle. Elected in 2018 as a Democrat, she’s been an independent since 2021. Like Mr. Manchin, she has not declared an intent to run in 2024.
If so, while Ms. Sinema may not be stressed in a primary, she’ll face well-financed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and, most likely, 2022 gubernatorial candidate Ms. Lake, on the November 2024 ballot.
Rocky GOP Prelims For ‘Flippable’ Seats
The Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia GOP Senate primaries, however, have the potential to rock Republicans’ united front.In Montana, the NRSC is backing retired Navy SEAL and aerial firefighting company CEO Tim Sheehy to take on Mr. Tester. That endorsement is expected to be challenged by Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), an ultra-MAGA conservative prominent as a fiscal hardliner in congressional budget standoffs.
Mr. Rosendale has not declared his candidacy for the June 4, 2024, GOP primary but has until March 11, 2024, to do so. When he was state auditor, he lost to Mr. Tester by nearly 4 percentage points in 2018.
He has been aggressively shadow-campaigning for a rematch with Mr. Tester while taking jabs at Mr. Sheehy for months, calling him the “handpicked candidate” of “Mitch McConnell and the D.C. party bosses.”
Mr. Rosendale has a name-recognition advantage over first-time candidate Mr. Sheehy, 37, but that could erode.
In Ohio, the NRSC has not yet endorsed a candidate in the March 19, 2024, primary to take on three-term Mr. Sherrod.
Drama in West Virginia
In West Virginia, the NRSC backed Gov. Jim Justice, a former Democrat, immediately after he announced in April that he was seeking the Republican nomination in the May 14, 2024 primary to run for Mr. Manchin’s seat.That rankled Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.), a Freedom Caucus MAGA conservative endorsed by Mr. Trump in his 2022 GOP primary and House campaigns who’d launched his Senate campaign months earlier.
In addition to NRSC, Gov. Justice has been endorsed by Mr. McConnell, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Sen. Shelley Capito (R-W.V.).
Among those supporting Mr. Mooney are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and Mike Lee (R-Utah); Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio); Citizens United Political Victory Fund; Club for Growth; Conservative Political Action Conference; Republican Liberty Caucus; Senate Conservatives Fund, and the West Virginia Republican Assembly.
The potential for a clash between GOP wings in West Virginia is complicated by Mr. Manchin’s dithering over 2024 plans. The three-term Democrat may be more popular outside West Virginia than within it. He’s hinted at a December announcement that he is running as an independent, perhaps for president.
Another intra-party clash could surface in Michigan, where three-term Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is retiring and Republicans are projected to run a competitive race, most likely against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
NRSC-backed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) will need to survive a crowded August 6, 2024 GOP primary field that includes pest control company owner Michael Hoover; school board trustee Sharon Savage; attorney Alexandria Taylor; small business owner J.D. Wilson; former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig, and, potentially, former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), who lost his 2022 reelection after voting to impeach Mr. Trump. Mr. Meijer has until April 23, 2024, to file.
