Republicans Gain Early-Vote Leads in at Least 4 Battleground States: Election Lab

Residents vote at an in-person early voting location in the Kenosha Municipal Building on Oct. 24, 2024 in Kenosha, Wis. The city has experienced a record turnout for early voting. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Republican voters appear to be running up big leads during the opening stages of early voting in at least four of seven battleground states, in some cases not only chipping into mail-in ballot advantages that Democrats have built over the past few election cycles but surpassing them.

Overall, nearly 33 million Americans nationwide had already cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election as of Oct. 25, with at least 15 million doing so in the 36 states where early voting is underway and 17.89 million mailing in their ballots, according to the University of Florida’s U.S. Election Lab.

By Oct. 24, early votes and mail-in ballots had topped more than 1 million each in California, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee, and Texas, as well as battleground states Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Across 25 of those 36 early voting states that register voters by party affiliation, 3.913 million had voted with 11 days remaining before the Nov. 5 election.

GOP voters led Democrats 1.963 million to 1.545 million in those states, with more than 1 million nonpartisans casting ballots as of 10 a.m. (EST) on Oct. 25, Election Lab tabulates.

During the pandemic-skewered 2020 election—when two-thirds of voters cast early votes or mailed in their ballots—across 10 states that the University of Florida’s Election Lab surveyed on Oct. 25 nine days before that Nov. 3 Election Day, Republicans’ early voting advantage was far narrower.

Of 5.8 million Americans who had cast early ballots in the 2020 election by then, Republicans had a 2.234 million to 2.177 million advantage over Democrats.

While Republicans appear to have a larger 2024 early voting lead than they did in 2020, Democrats’ usual mail-in voting advantage is not as stout.

Of 52.662 million mail-in ballots requested in 2020—from 18 states that register voters by party affiliation—included in Election Lab’s Oct. 25, 2020, survey, slightly more than 21 million had been returned.

Democrats had a near two-to-one advantage in those 18 states, 10.989 million to 5.146 million at this time in 2020.

Of 47 million mail-in ballots requested in 2024—from 25 states that register voters by party affiliation—Election Lab’s Oct. 25, 2024, survey found that nearly 11.374 million had been returned.

Democrats had a 5.167 million to 3.754 million lead over Republicans in these 25 states, with nearly 2.215 million returned by nonpartisan voters as of 10 a.m.

Returns from six of the seven battleground states among the 36 of 47 that offer early voting appear to confirm Election Lab’s numbers.

In Arizona, where early voting began on Oct. 8 but the Secretary of State’s Office had not released in-person early voting results as of Oct. 24, more than 916,680 mail-in ballots of nearly 3.347 million requested had been returned.

According to Election Lab, Republicans had mailed in 382,924 of those votes, nearly 42 percent, while Democrats had returned 329,228, less than 36 percent.

More than 204,000 were from nonpartisan voters.

In Georgia, where a record 313,403 people voted on the first day of early voting on Oct. 15, nearly 2.38 million had voted as of Oct. 25, according to the secretary of state’s Election Data Hub, with 2.23 million doing so in person and nearly 150,000 by mail.

Voters don’t register by political affiliation in Georgia, but early turnouts were higher thus far in 2024 than they were in 2020 in key trench-fight counties in the battleground state, including Cobb (162,658), Fulton (244,448), DeKalb (156,158), and Gwinnett (161,731), Election Lab posted.

Director of the Board of Elections Tyler Burns holds a test ballot during a mail-in ballot processing demonstration at the Board of Elections office in Doylestown, Pa., on Sept. 30, 2024. Hannah Beier/Getty Images

Battleground Breakaways

In North Carolina, which also set a first-day early voting record with 353,000 casting ballots on Oct. 17, more than 1.887 million had voted in person, according to the North Carolina State Election Board on Oct. 25.

Republicans cast 686,497, or 34.2 percent, of those early in-person North Carolina votes, about 3,400 more than the 683,072 cast by Democrats, Election Lab reported, with 538,090 nonpartisans also voting early.

There was no available breakdown of the 120,000 mail-in ballots that had been returned.

In Pennsylvania, which does not offer early in-person voting, registered Democrats had cast more than 748,000, or more than 62 percent, of the more than 1.25 million mail-in ballots returned, according to state data and Election Lab. However, the state does accept early mail-in ballots that a voter drops into an official office.

Republicans had mailed in nearly 378,000 votes, nearly 30 percent, and nonpartisans 126,766 ballots, 10 percent. Republicans’ mail-in tally in 2020 was 23 percent, according to Election Lab, so the near-30 percent is, potentially, significant.

In Michigan, which does register voters by party affiliation and allows voters to cast absentee/mail-in ballots in person during its early voting period, the state’s Election Dashboard reported early on Oct. 25 that 1.406 million of 2.339 million who had requested ballots had returned them.

In Wisconsin, another battleground state that does not register voters by party affiliation, nearly 192,000 had cast in-person votes since early voting began on Oct. 22, according to Election Lab.

More than 401,000 of 816,479 requested mail-in ballots have been returned.

While Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan early voting trends are inconclusive, and those in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania appear to favor Republicans, nowhere among the seven battleground states is the GOP enjoying a better pre-Election Day turnout than in Nevada.

According to Nevada Secretary of State numbers posted on Oct. 25 by Election Lab, 17,000 more Republicans had already voted than Democrats—162,629 (39.8 percent) to 145,621 (35.6 percent), with 100,585 nonpartisans also voting in-person early.

That advantage is fueled by a significant lead in early in-person voting, which began on Oct. 19. According to Election Lab, 91,674 GOP voters, or 52 percent of Nevada’s 176,679 in-person early tally, had cast their ballots compared to 47,613 Democrats (27 percent) and 37,392 nonpartisans (21.2 percent).

Democrats had an 81,222 to 57,658 lead in mail-in ballots, with 232,156 of 1.975 million requested returned.

All Nevada voters automatically receive ballots in the mail unless they opt out, and the state offers same-day registration on Election Day.