WASHINGTON—The final federal contest of the 2024 election was the race in California’s 13th District in the San Francisco Bay Area for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In that race, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) conceded to the Democratic Party’s nominee Adam Gray, who was declared the winner on Dec. 4 by a margin of just 187 votes.
It was the last of several pickups in the House of Representatives for Democrats—who gained new seats across California as well as in Oregon, Alabama, Louisiana, and New York—in an otherwise dismal election year for their party.
The GOP, by contrast, lost far more than one House seat. Despite a decisive victory in the presidential election, the party is in perpetual danger of losing its House majority.
Overall, House Republicans won 220 seats in the 2024 elections, giving them a slim majority of three in the 435-member House. Because of planned resignations, this majority will shrink by the same number—three—in the first few weeks of the new 119th Congress, leaving Republicans with 217 members.
Resignations, Special Elections
Most of the Republicans leaving the House have been selected by President-elect Donald Trump for jobs in the executive branch during his administration. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) of Florida’s Sixth Congressional District will leave to become the U.S. national security adviser. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) of New York’s 21st Congressional District will be nominated to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Both are positions with Cabinet rank.Waltz and Stefanik have been elected to the 119th Congress and will take their seats in the body on Jan. 3, 2025, when the new Congress takes office. Waltz will resign on Jan. 20 to assume his Cabinet role, an appointment that does not require the advice and consent of the Senate, while Stefanik will likely resign if the Senate confirms her.
A third departure will be made by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) of Florida’s First Congressional District, who resigned from the 118th Congress on Nov. 13. He will decline to accept his seat in the 119th Congress, to which he has been elected.
Gaetz was Trump’s nominee for U.S. attorney general until Nov. 21, when he withdrew following allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against him, which were being investigated by the House Ethics Committee at the time of his resignation.
The processes of holding special elections to fill vacancies in the districts of Waltz, Stefanik, and Gaetz will begin after they formally terminate their membership in the House.
Each represents a heavily Republican seat, but there is no guarantee that Republicans will win those races. If Democrats prevail in these special elections—or in any others that arise during the 119th Congress—they could solidify the zero-seat majority that leaves the GOP with no margin for defections.
While unlikely, history has shown that parties can lose safe seats in circumstances of divided government, when that seat is necessary for secure control.
‘Nothing to Spare’
Even if Republicans win back all three seats in special elections, their three-seat majority will imperil Republicans’ ability to pass any major legislation opposed by factions within the conference.“Do the math. We have nothing to spare,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said at a Dec. 4 press conference.
Defections among the narrow five-seat Republican majority during the 118th Congress produced many defeats for the conference. The defection of eight Republicans, led by Gaetz, prompted the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from office on Oct. 3, 2023, through a motion to vacate the chair.
Similarly, defections within the conference defeated several key measures on the House floor, such as the first attempt to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and the Legislative Branch Appropriations Bill for Fiscal Year 2025.
Ideological differences among House Republicans on critical issues, such as government spending, will persist in the new Congress. If just a handful of Republican opponents vote “nay” or “present” on a partisan bill, it could fail because of the expected unanimous opposition from Democrats.
Burchett voted to remove McCarthy and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, a fiscally conservative group whose demands for heavy spending cuts have led them to defect from the majority on several questions.
As with the 118th Congress, House Republicans may be forced to seek support from members of the Democratic Party for must-pass legislation, particularly for annual government funding. Demands in exchange for their support could significantly undermine conservative policy goals pursued by the Trump administration.
