WASHINGTON–When the House of Representatives returns on Jan. 3, 2025, to begin the 119th Congress for a two-year term, Republicans will start out with a narrow majority.
Though the party won 220 seats in the House, giving them a three-seat margin over the majority mark of 218, this number is set to decline in January. The drop in seats could imperil the GOP’s ability to pass legislation and, possibly, flip control of the House to the Democratic Party.
Florida’s 1st District
This district, covering most of the Florida panhandle, was represented by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for seven years—until Nov. 13, 2024. On that day, Gaetz resigned from office following the announcement that President-elect Donald Trump had nominated him to serve as U.S. Attorney General in the incoming administration. While supported by some conservatives, the nomination was also met with some bipartisan criticism, given allegations of misconduct against Gaetz contained in a House Ethics Committee report. Opposition from GOP senators necessary for confirmation led Gaetz to withdraw from consideration a week later.On Nov. 13, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told The Epoch Times he had asked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to begin the process of a special election for Florida’s 1st District because the U.S. Constitution does not permit governors to make temporary appointments to the House to fill a vacancy, as it does for the Senate.
Florida’s 6th District
This district, covering portions of northeastern Florida along the Atlantic coast, is currently represented by Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), who was appointed by Trump to serve as his national security adviser on Jan. 20, 2025, the day he is inaugurated. Despite its elevation to cabinet rank, the position does not require Senate confirmation, which means Waltz will take office immediately upon being sworn in. Hence, Waltz has resigned from Congress, effective Jan. 20.New York’s 21st District
This district, covering a large portion of upstate New York from the border with Canada down to Saratoga, is currently represented by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), chair of the House Republican Conference. Trump has nominated Stefanik to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, with Cabinet rank. The position requires Senate confirmation.If Stefanik is confirmed, she will need to resign from Congress. The uncertainty of a timeline for confirmation hearings and a final vote means that Stefanik is expected to join the 119th Congress on Jan. 3, 2025.
Consequences
The temporary reduction of the majority to zero seats will be negative for the House Republican Conference. To pass legislation, they will require the unanimous support of every member of the conference. During the 118th Congress, obtaining such unanimity was a tall order, and some conservative members, largely from the House Freedom Caucus, voted with Democrats to bring down GOP initiatives.A consequential vote occurred on Oct. 3, 2023, when eight Republicans voted with Democrats to remove then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from office. Thereafter, with a four-seat majority, some Republicans frequently threatened to bring a “motion to vacate the chair” against Johnson. The only such effort—introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)—failed after House Democrats voted to table it.
If any other Republican members beyond Stefanik resign, or die, during the 119th Congress, and the Democratic Party wins special elections, the GOP could lose control of the House.
The House Democratic Caucus currently has 215 members and needs to gain just three seats to reach a majority in the full 435-member body. Should that occur, the party could successfully pass a motion to vacate the chair, install Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as the speaker of the House, and pass a new House rules package as well as restructure standing committees to have Democratic majorities.