Republican Larry Hogan Leads Democrats in New Maryland Senate Poll

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan holds a news conference on the state's Covid-19 situation, at the Maryland State Capitol in Annapolis, Md., on Aug. 5, 2021. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is leading the Senate hopefuls pack in a new poll of likely voters in Maryland’s hotly-contested Senate race.

The poll, released by Goucher College on April 2, shows that Mr. Hogan, who was a highly popular moderate Republican governor, has a slight lead over either of his Democrat opponents, Democrats Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.).

The three contenders are running to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who is not seeking reelection.

The poll’s results are surprising in traditionally blue Maryland, which hasn’t had a Republican in the U.S. Senate since 1987.

When placed in a hypothetical matchup against Ms. Alsobrooks, the county executive of Prince George’s County, Mr. Hogan received 44 percent support to Ms. Alsobrooks’s 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

That includes a whopping 25 percent of Democrats who said they would back Mr. Hogan over Ms. Alsobrooks.

Mr. Hogan also enjoys a dramatic lead in general approval over Ms. Alsobrooks.

Sixty-three percent of voters polled reported having a favorable opinion of Mr. Hogan, against 30 percent who reported an unfavorable opinion. Five percent were unsure.

That figure includes more than half of Maryland Democrats, with 57 percent reporting a favorable opinion of Mr. Hogan—just a few points below the 66 percent of Republicans.

While Mr. Hogan’s moderate politics have alienated some of the GOP base he enjoys the highest favorability among independents, with 77 percent reporting that they have a positive opinion of him.

That’s compared to only 38 percent who reported a favorable opinion of Ms. Alsobrooks. Twenty percent reported an unfavorable opinion, while 40 percent were unsure.

Mr. Hogan also enjoys a slight lead over Mr. Trone, who currently serves as one of Maryland’s representatives in the lower chamber of Congress.

The poll found that in a hypothetical matchup between the two, 43 percent would vote for Mr. Hogan while 42 percent would vote for Mr. Trone. Another 10 percent are undecided.

Mr. Hogan also enjoys higher popularity than Mr. Trone, with only 43 percent of voters reporting a favorable opinion of Mr. Trone to Mr. Hogan’s 63 percent. Twenty-nine percent of voters have no opinion on Mr. Trone.

These results forecast an upcoming Senate race in Maryland that could become the state’s most hotly-contested one in decades.

Who Will Be on the Ballot?

With such a high approval rating and unbeatable name recognition in the Old Line State, Mr. Hogan is all but guaranteed to be the Republican nominee now that he’s put his hat in the ring.

Every single poll taken shows Mr. Hogan with an insurmountable lead among his largely unknown GOP competitors, with the most recent poll, taken by Emerson College, showing Mr. Hogan leading the Republican pack by a 37-point margin.

The next highest performer, Robin Ficker, drew only 6 percent support.

With Mr. Hogan all but the presumptive nominee, the Goucher College poll indicates that he’s slightly more likely to face off against Mr. Trone in November.

The poll found that Mr. Trone leads Ms. Alsobrooks by nearly a double-digit margin, with 42 percent of Democrats backing him compared to 33 percent backing Ms. Alsobrooks.

However, 25 percent say they’re undecided, a margin that could swing the election either way.

In any case, the Goucher College poll isn’t the only one showing a decisive lead for Mr. Hogan.

In almost every poll taken since February, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Mr. Hogan has enjoyed sometimes double-digit margins of support over his Democrat rivals.

Mr. Hogan’s booming support is another bad sign for Democrats in a Senate season already expected to be brutal for the party.

Practically every single Republican up for reelection is in a safe red state; many Democrats, however, will face tough battles in swing states or ones that have moved further to the right in recent years.

A victory for Mr. Hogan in the state would represent a substantial flip for Republicans as they look toward reclaiming the upper chamber.

Democrats currently hold the Senate by a paper-thin margin, with 51 seats against Republicans’ 49 seats.