Republicans Cling to Nebraska Senate Seat Amid Stiff Challenge From Independent

Senate Armed Services Committee member Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) arrives for a hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Nov. 27, 2018. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Senate Republicans avoided a major defeat on Election Day as Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) was reelected to a third term from Nebraska, beating independent candidate Dan Osborn, who mounted a close challenge.

Fischer, the state’s senior senator first elected in 2012, had been leading in polls for most of the campaign until Oct. 1, when Osborn began to gain support, with some polls showing him slightly ahead.

Osborn—the president of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, & Grain Millers (BCTGM) Local 50G union—had an unorthodox platform with both progressive and conservative elements, such as increasing border security, legalizing cannabis, and opposing federal action on abortion.

Like many Republican Senate candidates, Fischer emphasized Trump’s endorsement throughout her campaign.

“I’m honored to have the support of President [Donald Trump] for my reelection campaign. Just like we did before, I’ll work with President Trump to Secure the Border, Grow our Economy, and Keep America Safe!” Fischer wrote on X on Oct. 17.

A victory statement was not immediately available from Fischer’s campaign.

Early returns show Fischer with 51.5 percent of the vote, according to the Associated Press, which called the race at 12:06 a.m. on Nov. 6. Osborn earned 48.5 percent of the vote. Before Election Day, Osborn’s average lead was within most margins of error.

Osborn frequently accused Fischer of being beholden to special interests while emphasizing his service in the U.S. Navy and prior work as a mechanic.

“The U.S. Senate is a bunch of millionaires controlled by billionaires. My opponent, Deb Fischer, is part of the problem,” Osborn remarked in a featured campaign advertisement.

The closeness of the race—despite Trump’s large presidential lead in the state and Nebraska’s Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R+13—prompted allies of Fischer to spend large sums backing her candidacy.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super political action committee (PAC) affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), spent millions of dollars in the final weeks of the race to defend Fischer, whose election had long been rated “Likely Republican” by Cook, but which was moved leftward to “Lean Republican” on Oct. 21.

After his polling lead was noticed, Osborn’s campaign began to receive the support of Democratic and progressive groups nationwide—such as Hollywood actress Julia Louise-Dreyfus, several unions, and ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s online fundraising infrastructure.

A loss by Fischer would have severely damaged the Senate Republicans’ hopes of retaking the majority, which they lost control of on Jan. 20, 2021. Apart from Nebraska, across nine battleground Senate races, Republicans were leading in the polls of only two races—the exact number required to bring them to 51 seats in the 100-member chamber.

Trump won Nebraska by 56.8 percent and carried 4 of its Electoral College votes. However, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, won one Electoral College vote from the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers the city of Omaha and its suburbs. Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was born and raised in Nebraska.

Unlike every state except Maine, Nebraska allocates its Electoral College votes by the popular vote of each congressional constituency rather than the statewide popular vote. The 2nd Congressional District has infrequently voted for Democratic presidential candidates, such as Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020.

This feature of Nebraska’s electoral system has given the state significant attention during the 2024 election campaign. Decisions by the Supreme Court of Nebraska on Sept. 15 to certify two abortion-related referenda and on Oct. 16 to restore voting rights for convicted felons also gained national attention for their potential to affect voting outcomes in the state.

This year, both of Nebraska’s Senate seats were subject to an election. Fischer will begin a fresh six-year term on Jan. 3, 2025, while junior Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who was appointed to office in 2023, won the special election to serve out the remaining term of former Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), whom he replaced, until 2027.

“Congratulations @DebforNebraska! Thanks for playing, @OsbornForSenate,” wrote the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP’s Senate campaign organization, on X.