Report Links California’s 2014 Criminal Justice Reform Law to Increased Crime Rates

Union Square visitors look at damage to a Louis Vuitton store in San Francisco on Nov. 21, 2021. Danielle Echeverria/San Francisco Chronicle via AP

California voters in 2014 passed a ballot proposition aiming to reduce the state’s prison population by reducing some felonies to misdemeanors, but they may also have fueled an increase in crime.

That’s the finding of a Manhattan Institute paper published Oct. 17 that lists the effects of Proposition 47, which downgraded some drug and theft crimes—including small-scale possession of certain drugs, check fraud, forgery, grand theft, and larceny—to misdemeanors.

Researchers studied data from the counties of Riverside—the state’s fourth largest by population with about 2.5 million people—and San Bernardino.

“These findings paint a powerful data picture—and suggest that similar studies should be done throughout California,” wrote Hannah E. Meyers, author of the report, director of policing and public safety at the institute, and member of the New York State Domestic Terrorism Task Force.

The data suggest Prop. 47 is responsible for higher levels of re-offending, failures to appear, warrants, detention times, and plea agreements with case dismissals, according to the report.

Researchers also found that the time it took to resolve cases increased by almost 15 percent after the proposition took effect and has worsened since—expanding by 61 percent by 2023.

Before Prop 47, cases took on average 160 days to clear, but the report found that after its passage, the average extended to about 300 days.

The number of cases dismissed with plea deals spiked by approximately 200 percent between 2014 and 2023 in Riverside County, the report said.

Researchers said the prevalence of dismissing cases to secure plea deals is “detrimental because offenders are averaging more crimes before their first is resolved ... [and] removes some of the deterrence against committing new offenses, since, on average, defendants are more likely to see all their additional trailing cases dismissed.”

Felony cases dropped about 30 percent while misdemeanors increased slightly.

“The shift is significant because it indicates that offenses were more reclassified than ameliorated: crime is not going down; it is being renamed,” Meyers wrote.

Data also revealed an increase in the average number of new cases defendants accumulated before other charges were fully adjudicated.

Warrants issued due to misdemeanor cases spiked by more than 60 percent, the report said.

“Misdemeanants are committing many new misdemeanors while their cases are pending—and they are less and less likely to show up to court for these cases,” Meyers wrote. “This speaks to a decreased fear of repercussions for not coming to court.”

Incidents involving chronic drug offenders increased, including shoplifting and other thefts. The report concludes that shoplifting is fueling drug addiction, as some individuals steal to trade the goods for money or narcotics—a notion that law enforcement officials from across the state have confirmed to The Epoch Times.

With fewer consequences for criminal activity, court-affiliated drug treatment programs are also less utilized, according to the report and some district attorneys.

“There’s not the same incentive for defendants to choose rehabilitation programs when they know there’s little chance they’ll go to jail,” Vern Pierson, Placer County district attorney, told The Epoch Times.

The report highlights data from the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration which the author suggests shows drug abuse increasing after Prop. 47 took effect.

For the Inland Empire—which includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties—drug abuse admissions increased about 16 percent within two years of the law’s passage.

State Audit

A report released in July by the state’s auditor—also using data collected from law enforcement in Riverside and San Bernardino counties—found that the number of serial offenders with four or more convictions increased by about 12 percent after Prop. 47 was passed.

“The law enforcement agencies we reviewed asserted that reduced sentences are driving the increase in individuals committing multiple offenses in general and multiple theft offenses in particular,” auditor Grant Parks said in a letter sent to the Legislature and governor.

While recidivism increased, the average length of sentences declined by about 40 percent, according to the auditor’s report.

More Research

The Public Policy Institute of California studied the impact of Prop. 47 in a report published in June 2018.

“Our analysis does find some evidence of Prop. 47’s impact on property crime rates, which went up immediately after the law was implemented,” the five authors wrote. “This increase has been primarily driven by larceny thefts, particularly thefts from motor vehicles and shoplifting.”

Researchers quantified the impact at a rate of about 135 per 100,000 residents—representing a 9 percent increase.

The report found no evidence that violent crime rates increased.

Incarceration levels declined, and arrests and jail bookings dropped, according to the authors.

University Study

A separate study published in 2018 by the University of California, Irvine, in the Journal of Criminology and Public Policy found that larceny increased by less than 10 percent and motor vehicle thefts jumped about 20 percent after the proposition became law.

Researchers cautioned that the sample size needed to be increased to accurately study the issue but suggested the findings revealed no “meaningful” impacts from Prop. 47.

“These results are both sensitive to alternative specifications of our synthetic control group and are too small to rule out spuriousness,” the authors—Bradley J Bartos and Charis E Kubrin—wrote. “Overall, then, we find very little evidence to suggest that Prop. 47 caused crime to increase in California.”

Looking for Solutions

Citing concerns about theft, drugs, and homelessness, a group of lawmakers, district attorneys, and community safety advocates, among others, are backing a voters’ initiative—Proposition 36—on the November ballot to strengthen penalties for repeat offenders.

The measure seeks to address the root causes of some crimes by prioritizing drug and mental health treatment for those facing criminal charges.

Two recently released polls indicate majority support for the proposal.

A Berkeley Intergovernmental Studies survey released Oct. 4 found 60 percent of likely voters in favor of Prop. 36, with 21 percent opposed, and 19 percent yet to decide.

“Support for Prop. 36 is extremely broad-based, with large majorities or pluralities intending to vote yes across nearly all major demographic subgroups of the electorate,” researchers wrote.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they believe repeat offenders deserve “harsher punishments.”

A poll from the policy institute released Sept. 19 also found broad support across all demographics groups. About 71 percent of likely voters said they support Prop. 36.