More than 50 percent of North America is facing a serious risk of an energy shortfall in the coming years amid the retirement of thermal plants and the addition of renewable energy sources, according to new data released by the non-profit North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC).
“The performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather-dependent than the generators they are replacing,” the report reads.
“As a result, less overall capacity (dispatchable capacity in particular) is being added to the system than what was projected and needed to meet future demand.”
NERC is a regulatory authority that seeks to ensure the security and reliability of North America’s bulk power system.
The organization called natural gas-fired generators vital for the network. They are a flexible supply source that offers dispatchable electricity supply during the winter season and during times when solar and wind generation are incapable of meeting demand.
However, over the past seven years, natural gas pipeline capacity additions have trended downward.
“Some areas could experience insufficient pipeline capacity for electric generation during peak periods,” NERC stated.
The demand growth for electricity is higher now than at any time over the past couple decades, according to the report.
The rapid addition of data centers, including those for crypto and artificial intelligence, to the electrical grids presents a great challenge for planners, and the ongoing adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps is substantially increasing demand on the grids.
NERC projected peak demand in assessed areas to rise by 15 percent over the 10-year period, with winter demand estimated to jump by 18 percent.
NERC estimates the MISO region to face a high risk of energy shortfalls beginning in 2025. Several other regions, like California, Texas, and part of the Southeast, were categorized as facing an elevated risk of electricity shortfalls.
Rural Electricity Supply
Earlier this month, the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) sent a letter to President-elect Donald Trump, asking him to help electric cooperatives deliver reliable electricity to Americans.“All or parts of several states from North Dakota to Louisiana are at high risk of rolling blackouts during normal peak conditions [over the next five years],” the Dec. 4 letter reads. “Flawed public policies that force the premature closure of existing power plants are a big reason why. This problem is compounded by the rapid growth of data centers in rural areas—some forecasts project data centers will consume 9 percent of all US electricity generation by 2030.”
The organization asked the president-elect to repeal unlawful regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency posing a threat to electrical reliability.
Permitting regulations are now broken and thus need to be fixed to “streamline and accelerate project reviews.”
Some rules regarding public lands and species conservation are harmful, and existing legislation makes it difficult or even impossible to run power lines across federal lands. Such regulations must be repealed, according to NRECA.
Power generation sources are being retired “far too quickly and in quantities that threaten our ability to keep the lights on,” he said.
Some of the largest grid operators in the country have warned that certain EPA regulations will “make this already dire situation much worse by forcibly accelerating the retirement of the vast majority of the remaining coal fleet.”
Christie said that grid operator PJM projected last year that early retirement of power-generating units would likely result in the entity losing out on 40 gigawatts of generation capacity by the end of the decade.
PJM is the largest grid operator in the United States, measured by customers served.
“As I have been warning for the past three years as a member of FERC, the United States is heading for potentially catastrophic consequences in terms of the reliability of our electric power system,” Christie said.
