Challengers in the crowded and contentious primary race for Los Angeles County district attorney have been pummeling incumbent George Gascón for being “soft on crime.”
On the defensive, Mr. Gascón has pointed to a citywide drop in violent crime—more than 3 percent from 2022 to 2023, according to the Los Angeles Police Department—as proof that his progressive reforms are working.
But his challengers—Mr. Gascón faces 11 contenders in the March 5 primary, for which voting is already underway—have said that a broader look at the data tells a different story.
Deputy District Attorney Jonathan Hatami pointed out that there have been 1,111 homicides during Mr. Gascón’s tenure from 2021 through 2023, compared with 798 during his predecessor Jackie Lacey’s time in office.
“Just looking at one year, yes, violent crime has dropped from last year to this year,“ Mr. Hatami told The Epoch Times. ”But looking at Gascón’s overall record, it’s not very good.”
Former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman, who has so far polled third behind Mr. Hatami and Mr. Gascón, released a statement on Feb. 26 accusing the district attorney of manipulating crime statistics at a January debate when he said, “We have seen crime coming down ... at the same time we have continued with the reform effort.”
Homicides were at a 15-year high in 2022, Mr. Hochman told The Epoch Times.
“So [Gascón] basically says, ‘In 2023 we’re doing better, we’re not at a 15-year high ... and therefore, my policies are terrific.’ But I would argue every year should be compared to the year before you got into office,” he said.
Violent crime was significantly higher in 2023 than in 2020—Mr. Gascón was sworn in on Dec. 7, 2020—and property crimes have increased every year of his term, by a total of 24 percent, and shoplifting is up 81 percent over the past year alone, Mr. Hochman said.
During a campaign debate last month, Mr. Gascón said the work his office has started in Los Angeles is beginning to show results.
“One of the biggest problems we have in our system is the inequality of the high levels of recidivism that are the result of a lot of the work people on this stage have engaged in for years that has created one of the highest incarceration rates in the world,” he said. “We’re showing we can hold people accountable and we can be safe at the same time.”
Beyond Statistics
Steve Cooley, a former Los Angeles County district attorney and another prominent critic of Mr. Gascón, referenced a saying about the nature of statistics. “There are three types of lies,” he told The Epoch Times. “Lies, damn lies, and oftentimes, statistics.”Among crime statistics, he pointed to homicide as being the most reliable, with others often skewed when people lose faith in the system and stop reporting, or when legislation changes how the federal government collects data.
Some areas of the county have been hit harder by violent crime, specifically by an increase in homicides or shootings.
Residents of Lynwood, for example—a city near South Los Angeles, a hotspot for illegal street takeovers and where violent crime and robbery are on an upward swing—may have a very different experience from that of residents of Brentwood or other affluent areas.
“If you actually look within the data,” Mr. Hochman told The Epoch Times, “violent crime is significantly up in low-income communities more than affluent communities.”
And residents in neighborhoods throughout the county where dangerous homeless encampments have become larger and made sidewalks unsafe—or inaccessible—won’t see their reality reflected or explained in annual citywide statistics.
“Most people in Los Angeles feel that we’re less safe than we were four years ago,” Mr. Hatami said. “They feel that they can’t wear a watch or wear jewelry. They can’t walk their kids to school. They can’t go to the mall and go shopping. They can’t pump gas or walk outside at night, open the trunk of their car. They can’t go jogging, and they can’t use public transportation because they’re scared.”
‘Soft-on-Crime’ Policies to Blame
Across the state, some district attorneys have blamed California’s crime spike on parole reform and legislation such as Proposition 47—the 2014 measure co-authored by Mr. Gascón that reduces most drug possession and property theft crimes under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors.Los Angeles County in late 2023 implemented a controversial zero-bail policy, ending the prior cash bail system for all but the most serious crimes.
“During the last year we have so many people committing so many thefts and then they just get arrested and released [over and over again] because of zero bail,” Mr. Hatami said.
Both Mr. Hochman and Mr. Hatami lamented that Proposition 47 took away law enforcement’s ability to use drug court to try to get people with substance abuse disorders who commit crimes into a mandated program as an alternative to prison.
“If they were looking at state prison, that could be a wake-up call, and for many of them it was, to go through a very rigorous 18-month program,” Mr. Hochman said.
Mr. Cooley noted a variety of factors that tend to affect crime rates, but it’s the district attorney’s job to make sure criminals are behind bars.
“It’s not just the DA, it’s the system, the judges, the police, the prosecutors, and the citizens supposed to report crime,” he said. “All of that contributes. But the significant thing to realize is the DA is the lynchpin of the criminal justice system. If they don’t do his or her job, then courts can’t do their job in terms of sentencing.”
But Mr. Hochman said that’s misleading, pointing to examples such as Mr. Gascón’s office’s handling of high-profile cases such as that of Justin Flores, the man who killed two El Monte police officers while on probation. Mr. Flores was sentenced in 2021 to 20 days in jail and two years probation after pleading no contest to a charge of being a felon in possession of a firearm. Prosecutors dismissed two related drug counts.
“He got time served on probation, which allowed him to be in a hotel room that night. So when the officers responded to this guy beating up his girlfriend, he shot them dead, then shot himself dead,” Mr. Hochman said. “The mothers of the two El Monte police officers say, ‘Gascón killed our sons.’ And they’re absolutely right.”
An unprecedented 37 cities in LA County voted “no confidence” in Mr. Gascón in 2021 and 2022, Mr. Hatami noted, because he wasn’t charging people with misdemeanors—including resisting arrest, disturbing the peace, public drunkenness, solicitation for prostitution, indecent exposure, possession of meth, possession of fentanyl, aggravated trespass, and criminal threats.
Backlash has included a lawsuit from the union representing prosecutors in his office that argued he can’t bar the use of enhancements under the state’s “three strikes law” and two high-profile recall efforts that failed to get on the ballot.
Recent polling by USC Dornsife/Price Center shows Mr. Gascón leading with 15 percent, followed by Mr. Hatami at 8 percent and Mr. Hochman at 4 percent; 64 percent of voters are still undecided.
The other candidates in the race are Jeff Chemerinksy, Maria Ramirez, Debra Archuleta, Eric Siddall, Dan Kapelovitz, Lloyd “Bobcat” Masson, John McKinney, David Milton, and Craig Mitchell.
