The number of U.S. workers collecting unemployment benefits has risen to its highest level since 2021, delivering a fresh sign of labor market cooling as the Federal Reserve mulls when to cut interest rates after holding them at their highest level in 23 years.
That’s the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021, when that figure stood at 1.89 million.
Some market analysts saw this as evidence that the labor market is losing some steam, bolstering the case for a Fed rate cut.
High interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money, resulting in a cooling effect on spending and demand. When consumers spend less, businesses pull back on investment and hiring, which in turn dents the job market.
Fed officials have become increasingly wary of labor market risks as they weigh when to cut rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress at the beginning of July, telling lawmakers that labor market conditions have “cooled considerably” from where they were when the central bank embarked on its rate-hiking cycle two years ago.
In another sign that the jobs market seems to be softening, the number of first-time unemployment filings came in at 243,000 for the week ended July 13, the Labor Department data showed. That’s a 20,000 increase over last week’s numbers and higher than analysts expected.
Some economists saw the latest data as a sign of labor market softening, but not a deeper breakdown.
Economists are becoming increasingly focused on labor market dynamics in light of the current high interest-rate environment, which has a dampening effect on both inflation and economic activity, including hiring.
“The question, and it is important, is whether this is noise or an indication of a weakening of the labor market in a manner that results in growth losing momentum much quicker than most currently expect,” he added.
The unemployment rate has risen for four straight months—from 3.8 percent in March to 4.1 percent in June. While 4.1 percent is still low by historical standards, it’s the highest level since November 2021.
Economists have been debating whether the Fed’s monetary policy interventions will lead to a recession or whether the U.S. economy will manage to stick a so-called “soft landing,” meaning a measured cooling that brings inflation back to the Fed’s 2 percent target without significant damage to the labor market.