Number of Holiday Shopping Days Continues to Expand, With Sales Expected to Rise Among Frugal Consumers

A child looks at toys, in a file photo. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

If you’re in a retail store in early October and are struck by the sudden appearance of holiday gifts, sales, and decorations, you won’t be imagining it. The holiday shopping season may come earlier than ever this year because of several factors, from a short shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas to the distraction of a national election.

In Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast released earlier this month, it was reported that holiday sales will likely increase moderately by between 2.3 percent and 3.3 percent in 2024. Overall, the professional services consulting company predicts that holiday sales of retail and consumer products will total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November 2024 to January 2025 shopping timeframe.

Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com who focuses on the credit card industry, predicts that consumers will be more cost-conscious this holiday season.

“There is a frugal bent to the shopper right now, and those who are buying are also experiencing deep discounts. I think it’s going to be another big year for discounts, with inventory very high and people more tightfisted,” he told The Epoch Times on Sept. 24. “The buying forecasts are firmly in the positive territory, but consumers are buying thoughtfully and looking for a lot of discounts.”

The Holiday Shopping ‘Creep’ Will Expand in 2024

Frugal or not, the opportunity to shop and take advantage of an extended shopping period will entice some consumers who, in past years, waited for Black Friday after Thanksgiving to begin shopping. But according to Capgemini, “holiday creep,” a term for seasonal shopping periods starting earlier and earlier in the year, has become “a very real phenomenon.” The information and technology company pointed to Target, Walmart, and Amazon offering holiday promotions in 2023 as early as October, which delivered “strong earnings and mitigated supply-chain crimps by extending the shopping season.”

The traditional holiday shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day this year will be short, consisting of only 27 days, but according to George Mason University professor Mehmet Altug, the November elections in the United States could also extend the holiday shopping season.

“During the elections, people get distracted, so they aren’t necessarily thinking about shopping. Retailers could lose a few days or weeks,” Altug told The Epoch Times on Sept. 24. “Because people will be focused on the election, that could push retail promotions even days earlier. But total spending may not change. I’m not sure the election will have an effect.”

Ecommerce Shopping Continues to Grow

Almost everyone agrees that an increasing amount of holiday purchases will be made online this year.

In Experian’s report “Black Friday 2024: What Marketers Can Expect,” it was reported that from 2022 to 2023, Black Friday mobile orders increased to more than 50 percent of all sales made on smartphones and that “2024 will likely reflect this trend.” Because of this increase in mobile shopping, the credit-reporting company predicts that marketers will likely begin preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials this summer.

“There’s winners and losers for online shopping,” Rossman said. “Mastercard saw a 7 percent increase last year for online purchases versus 2 percent in store. Shoppers in person tend to make more impulse buys. However, the early start will have an impact, with half of holiday shoppers starting to buy before October. With Amazon sales, it’s almost like Black Friday starts in October now.”

He pointed to Amazon’s highly promoted “Prime Days” scheduled for Oct. 8 and Oct. 9 as an example.

A report from Practical Ecommerce states, “Amazon and other massive marketplaces accounted for more than half of holiday sales last year.”

But although a longer shopping period and increased spending are predicted for the 2024 holiday season, potential economic barriers could slow retail enthusiasm, according to Deloitte Insights economist Akrur Barua.

“Inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales,“ Barua said. ”While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”

However, those negative economic factors are not slowing down one of the most popular targets of holiday shopping. According to a survey conducted by Holiday Retail TrendWatch, 41 percent of consumers plan to buy gifts for themselves this holiday season despite tightening spending elsewhere. The buy-a-present-for-yourself trend is most pronounced among Generation Z (47 percent) and millennial consumers, with 46 percent saying they also need to budget more.

Another factor not being promoted by retail and online stores is the massive return rate, which, according to the National Retail Federation, reached 15.4 percent of all holiday sales last year. Altug said a longer shopping season this year will only exacerbate the trend for consumers.

“Because of the length of time people will have this season, they will have more time for returns. When you buy several weeks in advance of the holiday, you get more feedback from people, and you’re more likely to take them back,” he said. “In that extended length of time, you have more opportunities to change your opinion on a purchase. This could mean returns will be higher this year and affect overall profits.”