North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Stands to Be Closest in the Country: Cook Political Report

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-N.C.) speaks at Hilton in Washington on June 23, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

The North Carolina 2024 governor’s race has gone from being “lean Democrat” to “a toss-up,” according to a political analysis report.

The Cook Political Report (CPR)—an independent, non-partisan organization analyzing elections and campaigns—published its report of North Carolina’s 2024 gubernatorial race between Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat, and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Republican.

Though former President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2020, Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was elected in both presidential election cycles.

Despite the state’s preference for a Democrat as governor, the CPR report shows Mr. Robinson catching up with Mr. Stein, citing his fundraising efforts.

According to demographic data from the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, of the 7.9 million registered voters in the Tar Heel state, 34 percent are Democrats, 36 percent are unaffiliated, 30 percent are Republicans, and 0.7 percent are registered with another party, such as the Libertarian Party or Green Party.

Mr. Robinson, a Republican and North Carolina’s first black lieutenant governor, stepped into office in 2020 and serves under Mr. Cooper.

He spoke with The Epoch Times in 2021, describing how he entered the political limelight in 2018. At that time, he was an adult student, two classes short of receiving his undergraduate degree from the University of North Carolina Greensboro, while working full-time at a furniture factory.

During that period, members of the Greensboro City Council aimed to cancel a gun show, and during the public comment section of the council meeting, Mr. Robinson spoke against the proposal, with his remarks later going viral.

While in office, he launched an initiative to investigate the teaching of critical race theory (CRT) in schools. In 2021, Mr. Cooper vetoed legislation that would have prohibited the teaching of CRT in public schools, calling the measure “conspiracy-laden politics.”

The relationship between Mr. Cooper and Mr. Robinson has been distant, made even more so by his stirring the pot by making statements perceived by Democrats as misogynistic and anti-LGBT.

According to CPR, his “lengthy history of making controversial comments” cast his potential candidacy in doubt; however, his recent fundraising of $10.5 million, more than any other Republican gubernatorial candidate, shows that he can reach and even surpass Mr. Stein’s $18.6 million raised.

“While Robinson is certainly leaning into social issues—which worry many of the more business-aligned Republicans—he is also emphasizing economic issues where Democrats are weakest,” CPR reported.

CPR reported that Mr. Stein and Mr. Robinson are tied at 37 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

“According to the crosstabs, Robinson is getting slightly less support among GOP voters (78%) than Stein is among Democrats (80%),” the CPR said. “Stein is also winning independents 32%-30%, but the 27% of non-affiliated voters who are undecided will ultimately decide this election.”

‘Heir to Cooper’

Mr. Stein maintains a lead with female independent voters of 11 points and by 31 points among “college-educated independent women,” CPR reported.

“As the current attorney general, Stein is very much the type of Democrat who has been successful recently, both in North Carolina and nationally, with an emphasis on tackling crime and presenting a more centrist, bipartisan image,” CPR reported. “He’s long been seen as the natural heir to Cooper, who also ascended to office from the state’s top law enforcement position.”

Mr. Stein led a successful effort to clean up the backlog of rape kits in North Carolina, which facilitated the processing of cold case files, CPR reported.

“We’ve put in place measures to ensure that we never get into this situation again in North Carolina, and I intend to continue to do everything in my power to help law enforcement solve cold cases and get rapists off the streets and behind bars,” Mr. Stein said in an April 2024 press release.

Meanwhile, Mr. Robinson has a compelling backstory—having grown up in a broken, impoverished home— and a robust speaking voice with which to share it, CPR said.

“Although Robinson has taken strident, far-right positions on social issues, he’s a strong, charismatic orator,” CPR said. “Robinson, a furniture factory worker and Army Reservist, burst onto the political scene in 2018 after a video of him defending gun rights before the Greensboro City Council went viral. The Black Republican made his first run for office in 2020, winning a surprise primary victory and subsequent general election for lieutenant governor, running five points ahead of GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Forest.”

‘Closest and Most Consequential’

The gubernatorial race stands to be “one of the closest and most consequential” in the country, CPR said.

“This contest may ultimately come down to whether Biden and economic issues are too much of a drag on Democrats to overcome, or whether Robinson’s ample controversies irretrievably turn off independents and women,” CPR said. “As such, we are moving our rating from Lean Democrat to Toss Up.”

The Epoch Times contacted Mr. Stein’s and Mr. Robinson’s office for comment.

Mike Lonergan, the communications director for Mr. Robinson’s campaign, said in a statement: “Despite relentless lies and smears by the Democrats, Mark Robinson’s vision and message continues to resonate with North Carolina voters of all backgrounds and walks of life.

“Far-left career politicians like Joe Biden and Josh Stein have brought open borders, crippling inflation and rampant crime on the rise in many of our major cities. The voters have had enough and are ready for a bold conservative outsider like Mark Robinson to partner with President Trump and roll back the failed policies and radical agenda of Biden, Stein and the Democrats.”