New National Polling Shows Trump Holds Slight Edge Over Harris Among Registered Voters

(Left) Vice President Kamala Harris at the Naval Observatory in Washington, DC, on Oct. 7, 2024; (Right) Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a campaign rally at the Santander Arena in Reading, Pa., on Oct. 09, 2024. Ting Shen, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A new national poll and a slew of battleground state surveys continue to show an exceptionally tight race for the White House.

Polls published on Oct. 31 covering the entire United States and three of the critical battleground states—Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—all showed that the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is within each poll’s margin of error.

On Oct. 31, YouGov, working with The Economist, published a new national poll that found 47 percent of the registered voters it surveyed would vote for Harris if the election were held today.

The same survey found 46 percent would vote for Trump.

According to its methodology, YouGov surveyed about 1,600 adult U.S. citizens in an online panel poll conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 29. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The YouGov poll is consistent with the results of other recently published national surveys.

As of Oct. 31, an average of major polls conducted and published by Real Clear Politics indicate the Republican Party’s presidential candidate leads by 0.5 percent.

A poll conducted and published by The Washington Post on Oct. 31 that was focused on Michigan found Trump is leading with 47 percent of support among registered voters to Harris’s 45 percent.

According to its methodology, the Washington Post poll surveyed about 1,000 people in Michigan via landline and cellular phone between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.

Another Michigan poll published on Oct. 31, conducted by the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov and published by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion, said Harris leads Trump by a 4-point spread.

That poll said 49 percent of Michiganders would vote for Harris while 45 would vote for Trump.

According to its methodology page, UMass Lowell’s Michigan poll surveyed 600 Michiganders between Oct. 16 and Oct. 24. It reported a margin of error of 4.49 percent.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the Wolverine State, as of Oct. 31, shows Harris has a slight 0.4 percent lead in the presidential contest.

UMass Lowell published a pair of additional polls on Oct. 31 covering Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

In the Keystone State, UMass Lowell’s concluded that the race is essentially neck-and-neck.

Its poll, conducted by the Center and YouGov between Oct. 16 and Oct. 23, found 48 percent of respondents would pick Harris while 47 percent would vote for Trump.

According to its methodology, UMass Lowell’s Pennsylvania poll questioned about 900 people and carried a margin of error of 3.73 percent.

The results of the UMass Lowell poll for Pennsylvania are consistent with the national polling average published by Real Clear Politics. As of Oct. 31, Trump holds an average 0.7 percent advantage over Harris.

The same two organizations found that Trump is leading Harris by a two-percent margin in North Carolina.

The UMass Lowell poll determined that 47 percent of its respondents said they would vote for Trump, and 45 percent said they would back Harris.

According to the poll’s methodology, the margin of error is 4.2 percent. About 730 North Carolinians were interviewed between Oct. 16 and 24 for the poll.

The Real Clear Politics average of all major polls, as of Oct. 31, places Trump in the lead by 1 percent in the Tar Heel State.