National Polls Show Trump Gaining Ground in Final Election Stretch

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump (L) and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris during an ABC News presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Sept. 10, 2024. Alex Brandon/AP Photo

Former President Donald Trump is gaining support in the polls with just a few weeks left before the presidential election is decided.

Several recent national polls show the Republican presidential nominee on the rebound after initially losing ground amid Vice President Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket.

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll—conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 8—has Harris leading the former president 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters, and 49 percent to 47 percent among all registered voters. Among all adults, the margin narrows even further to a 1-point race within the 2-point margin of error, excluding those who are unlikely to vote.

Those results mark an improvement for Trump since mid-September, when he trailed Harris by 5 points in the same poll.

A CBS/YouGov poll taken from Oct. 8 to Oct. 11 gives Harris a similar 51–48 edge among likely voters. That puts her 1 point down from September but with a lead slightly outside the 2.3 percent margin of error.

An NBC poll of registered voters conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 8 depicts a tied race at 48 percent each. That marks a 1-point decline for Harris and a 4-point gain for Trump since last month. When the poll is expanded to include all other candidates in the race, the Republican candidate pulls ahead 47 percent to 46 percent.

In the battleground states, the race is just as close, according to a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Among all 600 voters surveyed, Trump leads Harris 46 percent to 45 percent. At the state level, the former president holds a 1-point advantage in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania and a substantial 5-point lead in Nevada—just outside the 4-point margin of error. Harris, on the other hand, holds a slight edge in each of the other four states.

A New York Times/Siena College poll gives Harris the lead in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 47 percent. The poll puts Trump 51–46 over Harris in Arizona.

Overall, the latest polls indicate a tightening race heading into the last three weeks of the election, with Harris’s post-nomination bump dwindling heading into the final stretch.

Both candidates are ramping up their blitzes in swing states this week, with Harris slated to make stops in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will also make an appearance in North Carolina to mark the start of the state’s early voting period.

Trump will start the week off with events in Pennsylvania and Georgia. His vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), will follow those up with solo stops in Pennsylvania and North Carolina later in the week.