Mudslide Risk Remains in Southern California’s Fire-Ravaged Areas

A utility truck is parked in front of a house unscathed by the Palisades Fire but later split in half by a landslide in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Jan. 16. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

After a home that survived the Los Angeles fires was destroyed by a mudslide this week, forecasters don’t expect significant rain anytime soon for the region, decreasing the risk of landslides in burn-scarred areas.

Wildfires destroy root systems in burn areas, destabilizing the soil and making it susceptible to mudflows. After a wildfire, landslide concerns rise when the first heavy rains hit vulnerable areas.

Probabilities of rain remain low for the Los Angeles area, and the amount wouldn’t be enough to trigger landslides, National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Frank Wofford told The Epoch Time.

“If we get a more significant storm, then those burn areas will definitely be at risk,” he said.

Instead, the NWS in Oxnard is expecting more Santa Ana winds next week, reaching their peak Monday to Thursday. Overall, the event is expected to be moderate with winds of 30-50 miles per hour and and low humidity.

Wofford said his office expects to send out a fire-weather watch for Monday and Tuesday.

A police officer is parked in front of a house previously unscathed by the Palisades fire and now split in half by a landslide in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Jan. 16, 2025. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Landslides and Mudslides in Los Angeles County

Los Angeles has a history of landslides and mudslides. The last reported slide in Pacific Palisades, where the Palisades Fire has burned more than 23,000 acres since Jan. 7, took place in March 2023, according to the Department of Conservation. It affected one home, which was evacuated.

In South Los Angeles County, the Portuguese Bend Landslide, one of the largest slow-moving landslides in the country, is visible along Palos Verdes Drive South. Rancho Palos Verdes, where the landslide is located, declared an emergency in 2024.

In July 2023, a landslide destroyed 12 homes in the Rolling Hills Estates area.

In the aftermath of the 2018 Woolsey Fire, downpours caused mudslides in burned areas of Malibu and parts of Los Angeles.

The Thomas Fire in December 2017 ripped through Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, leaving scorched areas vulnerable when heavy rain hit in early January 2018. The storm triggered a flow of mud and debris from the Santa Ynez mountains that hit the town of Montecito, “tearing through homes and streets,” according to the governor’s Office of Emergency Services website. The incident left 23 dead and 100 homes destroyed.

A winter storm in 2010 brought heavy rainfall that led to mudslides in La Cañada Flintridge, La Crescenta, and Glendale, causing evacuations and property damage.

The 1995 and 2005 La Conchita Landslides along the Ventura County coast were also destructive. The latter killed 10 people and leveled homes.

During the 1997-1998 El Niño, winter storms triggered slides in the Hollywood Hills, Pacific Palisades, and elsewhere in Los Angeles County.

Although many are left praying for rain to douse the continuing wildfire risk in Los Angeles, a significant storm could make things worse.

“Debris and mudflows are highly unpredictable events,” the county’s Office of Emergency Management states on its website.

“Areas that don’t have grass, trees, shrubs, and plants, such as after a fire, are more likely to be impacted. The extent and amount of flows will depend on the rainfall intensity and duration of the storm event, and on the extent of recovery of vegetation in the burn areas at the time. These flows can be highly destructive and move large quantities of soil, rocks, brush and trees into neighborhoods, causing property damage, blocking streets and endangering occupants.”

The threat of a landslide is expected to last three to five years after a wildfire, according to a city of Malibu winter storm safety advisory.