As the April 23, Pennsylvania Primary election looms, disgruntled Pennsylvania voters may use the polls to send a message to candidates.
The Commonwealth Foundation is a right-leaning, Pennsylvania think tank.
Its poll also found that most of the polled Pennsylvania voters, 60 percent, are dissatisfied with the presidential candidates they have to choose from in 2024.
When asked to name all the candidates they would refuse to vote for in the general election, 51 percent said they would refuse to vote for former President Trump, 44 percent would refuse to vote for President Biden, 22 percent would never vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but five percent said they would not refuse any candidate.
Flip that to the traditional polling question, and no candidates capture over half the registered voters: If the 2024 presidential election was held today, which of the following individuals would you vote for?
Forty-four percent named Joe Biden, 41 percent said Donald Trump, 7 percent favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 4 percent said they would vote for someone else, and another 4 percent would not pick any of them.
Issues Voters Want Addressed
The issues section of the poll offers a window into why voters are lukewarm about candidates.When asked to rank the three biggest problems facing the country today, those polled ranked inflation and the cost of living as the top concern, followed by immigration/border security and the U.S. economy in general.
While candidates talk about these issues, voters feel authentic solutions are not imminent for these pressing issues.
Solving pocketbook issues should be a safe bet for candidates.
Inflation and cost of living were the top concerns in past Commonwealth Foundation polls every quarter of 2023.
Other top issues included rising crime rates; gun rights or gun control; division among people or a lack of tolerance; abortion; moral decline; national security; excessive federal spending; poverty and homelessness; and the environment, among others.
A battleground state, Pennsylvania has the sixth highest number of electoral college votes (19) in the United States and a healthy number of swayable voters unaffiliated with any party.
As of April 8, The Department of State reports slightly more registered Democrat voters (3,892,619) than Republicans (3,495,378), a difference of 397,241.
The Commonwealth Foundation poll found Pennsylvania leaning Democrat, with 51 percent of those polled saying they would vote for a Democrat if the 2024 presidential election was held today and the options were between a Republican or Democrat candidate, and 44 percent would vote Republican.
Pennsylvania also has 342,574 voters registered with a smaller party and 981,763 unaffiliated voters.
Some Pennsylvania voters have switched party affiliation.
Since the start of 2024, there have been 5,482, Republicans who switched to Democrat, plus 7,422 “other” registered voters became Democrats.
That is a combined 12,726 newly swapped, registered Democrats, as of April 8, according to Pennsylvania Department of State numbers.
But more Democrats have left the party, including 17,414 registered Democrats who changed their party affiliation to Republican in 2024, plus 10,253 “other” registered voters who became Republicans.
It is a total of 27,667 newly swapped Republicans.
Participating in the Pennsylvania Primary is one possible motivation for switching parties.
The Keystone State requires voters to be registered as a Republican or a Democrat to vote, and voters are only allowed to vote on the ballot that matches their party.
It leaves that large swath of independents and other voters on the sidelines until the November general election when they often end up choosing one of the major party candidates.
Occasionally the state legislature has considered granting these sidelined voters primary privileges, but that idea has never moved far.
The Common Ground Poll uses sampling controls to ensure a proportional and representative number of respondents were interviewed from such demographic groups as partisanship, age, gender, race, and geographic region, according to the Commonwealth Foundation.
