With about 23 million early ballots returned, more Republicans appear to be voting early—with just under two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 election.
Former President Donald Trump has encouraged his supporters in recent months to head to the polls early, saying on Dan Bongino’s podcast last week, “I am telling everyone to vote early.” That’s somewhat of a reversal from 2020, when Trump often questioned mail-in ballots and early voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The Democrats are still, as far as I can tell, banking more early votes. It’s just less of a disadvantage for Republicans,” Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who carefully tracks the early vote, said.
“We don’t know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans,” he said.
However, James Blair, the political director for Trump’s campaign, said the early-voting data show good indicators for Trump ahead of the Nov. 5 contest.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to an Epoch Times request for comment.
“The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said on Oct. 22.
Overall, in states that report party affiliation, about 43 percent of early votes have been cast by Democrats, 35 percent by Republicans, and 22 percent by independents or voters affiliated with a third party, the data show.
“In the states with party registration, registered Democrats have a huge advantage among early voters,” McDonald wrote on Oct. 18, 2020.
In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast early ballots this year as of Oct. 22, according to data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
The surge in 2020 Democratic early voting was largely a reaction to a COVID-19 pandemic that no longer exists, skewing historic comparisons. And what might seem like demographic trends in the early vote can suddenly disappear once Election Day votes are factored in.
Meanwhile, the early vote data reveal only whether voters are registered with a party, not the candidates they are voting for, and the early-voting electorate can change from day to day as more people vote early.
The latest figures come as swing state Wisconsin, which doesn’t report party affiliation, opened up its early in-person voting period on Oct. 22, initially experiencing systemwide issues that election officials later said had been resolved. Some voters and cities had reported significant slowdowns in voting, while the state election agency said the problem was caused by high voter turnout.
Fellow battleground states North Carolina and Georgia have reported record turnouts on their first day of in-person early voting despite the devastation caused in both states by Hurricane Helene last month. Democrats have a 10,000 voter advantage over Republicans in North Carolina, while Georgia doesn’t report party affiliation.
