Monthly Housing Costs in Swing States Have Nearly Doubled Since 2020 Election: Redfin

A "For Rent" sign is posted in front of a home in Miami, Fla., on Dec. 12, 2023. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The monthly cost of housing in swing states across the country has nearly doubled since the 2020 election, according to data published on July 16 by real estate brokerage firm Redfin.

Average monthly housing payments in swing states have risen 92 percent in the past four years to an all-time high of more than $2,000 as both home prices and mortgage rates have skyrocketed, Redfin said.

Meanwhile, home prices in battleground states have risen to a record $316,063, up 40 percent since the last election when voters were asked to choose between candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump.

Redfin’s report is based on an analysis of housing market data and incomes for Democrat-leaning, Republican-leaning, and swing states, from 2016 to 2024.

The company considers this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said housing affordability will remain a crucial issue in this year’s election between President Biden and former President Trump, particularly in swing states.

“Voters in swing states care about housing affordability because soaring home prices and mortgage rates, along with a shortage of homes for sale, have made homeownership feel impossible for some Americans,” Mr. de la Campa said.

That is especially true for young people with no savings and low incomes, he said.

“While swing states have historically had lower housing costs than blue states—and most still do—markets in swing states have not been immune to the affordability crunch the country has been facing for the last several years,” Mr. de la Campa said.

“The inability to afford a home is making a lot of voters feel bad about the economy and their financial prospects.”

US Home Prices Reach All-Time High

Redfin said it considers a home or listing affordable if a household spends no more than 30 percent of their income on monthly housing costs.

With that rule in mind, Redfin said a family in a swing state would need to earn at least $86,421 a year to spend no more than 30 percent of their income on payments—nearly double the $45,140 they needed to earn in 2020.

However, swing states aren’t the only ones impacted by the soaring cost of living.

According to Redfin, housing costs have also ballooned in red and blue states since the 2020 election, due in part to the pandemic-fueled “homebuying frenzy” along with higher mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for sale.

In red states, median housing payments are up 95 percent since 2020 to a record $2,066 while in blue states, they’re up 83 percent to $3,311, Redfin said.

Meanwhile, median home prices are up 28 percent in conservative-leaning states and 27 percent in Democrat strongholds, according to the real estate brokerage.

The current state of housing is similar to that seen before the 2020 presidential election when home prices shot up due to a shift in remote working, ultra-low mortgage rates, and because the “pandemic housing boom had already begun,” according to Redfin.

However, heading into this year’s election between President Biden and former President Trump, 30-year mortgage rates now average 6.89 percent, more than double the record low of 2.65 percent at the start of 2021.

Redfin said earlier this month that home prices across the United States had reached an all-time high of $397,482, marking a 4.7 percent year-over-year increase and the largest increase in more than four months.