Mississippi Governor’s Race Unexpectedly Close as Democrat Mounts Strong Challenge

Tate Reeves in a Nov. 1, 2019, file photograph in Tupelo, Miss., before winning the gubernatorial election. Brandon Dill/Getty Images

JACKSON, Miss.—Mississippi is a deep-red state, almost as red as it gets. Republicans have a solid majority in its House of Representatives, a supermajority in the Senate, and control the governor’s mansion. No Democrat has held statewide office here in more than a decade.

Yet this governor’s race has become unexpectedly tight, raising the possibility of breaking the GOP’s 20-year hold on the executive mansion.

Incumbent Republican Tate Reeves seemed to be a lock in the contest by midsummer, leading in the polls by 17 percentage points. However, that lead has diminished as Democratic challenger Brandon Presley attacked his opponent on charges of corruption.

The governor countered that Mr. Presley is a liberal Democrat, controlled by wealthy elites from both coasts.

The latest poll shows Mr. Reeves leading by just a single percentage point, and election forecaster Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race to “Leans Republican” from “Likely Republican.”

Voters go to the polls on Nov. 7. The outcome could hinge on which of the two candidates’ claims seems most credible.

The Matchup

Mr. Reeves and Mr. Presley are as alike as they are different. Both are native Mississippians. Both are Christians from small towns. Both are pro-life and have a record of cutting taxes. Both have been in politics for about two decades.

However, that’s where the similarities end.

Mr. Reeves, 49, the son of a prosperous business owner from Florence, attended a private liberal arts college and began his career in banking. His entire political life has been in statewide office: He was elected state treasurer in 2003 at the age of 29, lieutenant governor in 2011, and governor in 2019.

Mr. Presley, 46, was raised by a single mother in Nettleton after his alcoholic father was murdered when the younger Presley was 8 years old. He attended a community college and a state university. His political career has been spent in local and regional elected offices.

He was elected mayor of Nettleton, population 1,935, in 2001 at age 33, and has served as a public service commissioner representing the Northern District of the state since being elected in 2007.

Throughout the race, Mr. Reeves has positioned himself as a reliably conservative public servant who has guided the state through a series of natural disasters, including the pandemic, while cutting taxes and improving educational results.

Brandon Presley addresses a group of business leaders at the 2023 Hobnob, sponsored by the Mississippi Economic Council, in Jackson, Miss., on Oct. 26, 2023. Rogelio V. Solis/AP Photo

Mr. Presley has run as a hardscrabble outsider who vows to end political corruption in the state.

That leads to another similarity between the two: They both claim their opponent is a liar.

Mudslinging

Both candidates have run vicious attack ads charging each other with corruption. Their lone debate, which was televised on Nov. 1, repeated the attacks and added multiple accusations of untruthfulness.

Mr. Presley has accused the governor of involvement in a welfare scandal in which some $77 million in federal funds intended to aid low-income Mississippians was directed to wealthy people with political connections in the state between 2017 and 2020.

“Under Tate Reeves, millions were steered from education and job programs to help his rich friends,” Mr. Presley alleged in television ads.

Mr. Reeves has consistently said he couldn’t have been involved in the misuse of funds because he wasn’t governor at the time.

“Tate Reeves had nothing to do with the scandal,” his television ads declared. “It all happened before he was governor.”

He was lieutenant governor during the years in question.

Mr. Reeves then claimed his opponent knowingly broke the law by accepting money from a solar energy company while serving as a utility commissioner.

“Three public service commissioners in the state of Mississippi have gone to jail for doing exactly what he’s done,” Mr. Reeves said during the debate, repeating the charge several times.

Mr. Presley denied wrongdoing, saying that solar companies aren’t public utilities. He noted that Mr. Reeves changed the ads after being threatened with a lawsuit over the truthfulness of the claim.

The debate devolved into a mudslinging contest, with Mr. Reeves accusing his opponent of being in the pocket of “far-left radicals” in California and New York, and Mr. Presley calling the governor a “bought and paid for politician.”

Medicaid, Education, Taxes

Health care has been a signature issue for Mr. Presley, who has promised to expand Medicaid coverage in the state and ensure that Mississippi’s beleaguered rural hospitals can continue to operate.

While both candidates concede that 34 of the state’s rural hospitals are on the brink of insolvency, they disagree on the remedy.

Mr. Presley claims that an expansion of Medicaid would aid 230,000 working Mississippians and be a financial boon to the state’s hospital system. Mr. Reeves counters that the expansion is unnecessary and would result in moving some 100,000 residents to Medicaid from private health insurance.

On education, the governor took credit for moving the state to a record level of achievement and providing a $6,000 annual pay increase for teachers.

Mr. Presley countered that compensation for the state’s teachers still ranks below the national average and that Mississippi still ranks 32nd in K-12 educational achievement.

A U.S. flag hangs in a classroom as students work on laptops in Newlon Elementary School in Denver, Colo., in a file photo. David Zalubowski/AP Photo

Both candidates favor tax cuts. Mr. Reeves claims credit for signing into law the largest tax cut in the state’s history. It will reduce the income tax for a person making $40,000 per year by $417. Mr. Reeves favors eliminating the state’s income tax.

Mr. Presley reduced taxes as a small-town mayor and claims to have voted against more utility rate boosts and spending than any other commissioner. He criticized Mr. Reeves for not using the state’s $700 million budget surplus to reduce vehicle registration fees.

Fundraising Edge

Mr. Presley has the edge in fundraising, according to the most recent reports, although Mr. Reeves’s war chest is larger overall.

The Democrat began the year with about $727,500 in campaign funds and raised some $7.9 million. He has spent about $6.8 million, leaving about $1.8 million available as of Sept. 30.

Nearly half of those contributions were from the Democratic Governors Association, which drew another attack from the governor.

“Ask yourself: why are they dropping historic money on Mississippi to flip it blue?” Mr. Reeves wrote on social media. “It’s because they know Brandon Presley will govern like a liberal Democrat.”

Mr. Reeves received money from outside the state as well. His campaign received $500,000 from a Washington-based political action committee called Mississippi Strong on June 23.

That donation was made on the same day the PAC received a $600,000 contribution from the Republican Governors Association.

Mr. Reeves began the year with about $7.9 million in campaign funds and has raised $5.1 million. He has spent nearly $6.9 million, leaving $4.2 million available on Sept. 30.

Modified Rules

This governor’s race is the first conducted in Mississippi under a law that took effect in 2020.

In previous elections, a candidate was required to win a majority of the popular vote, plus a majority of the vote in a majority of the 122 districts of the state’s House of Representatives.

If no candidate achieved that, the election would be decided in the state’s House of Representatives.

In 2019, Mr. Reeves won 51.9 percent of the vote.

Then-Mississippi Republican gubernatorial candidate Tate Reeves (R) speaks alongside President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Tupelo, Miss., on Nov. 1, 2019. Brandon Dill/Getty Images

Under the new system, a candidate must receive a majority of the statewide popular vote to be elected. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff election is held between the top two finishers.

Mr. Reeves has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, the National Rifle Association of America Political Victory Fund, and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Mr. Presley has been endorsed by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), a number of labor unions, and Democratic governors including John Bel Edwards of Louisiana and Gavin Newsom of California.

Absentee voting in Mississippi’s 2023 election began on Sept. 23.

The Statewide Election Management System reported that nearly 23,000 absentee ballots had been requested and just under 16,000 had been returned as of Oct. 23.

Neither campaign responded by press time to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.