Mandatory evacuation orders already have been issued for hundreds of thousands of Florida residents on the Gulf Coast.
Federal forecasters say that Hurricane Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 storm and is due to hit the Tampa, Florida, area by Wednesday evening, with officials in western Florida issuing mandatory evacuation orders for hundreds of thousands of people.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Milton is in the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to move to the west, impacting Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, before moving to the northwest and slamming into west-central Florida as a “major” hurricane, meaning a Category 3 or greater.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued multiple advisories, including hurricane and tropical storm watches, for much of Florida’s Gulf coast. Those watches are likely to be upgraded to warnings as the storm system approaches the state.
The agency warned on social media that if Milton stays on its current trajectory, “it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years.” In 1921, an unnamed hurricane caused significant damage.
“A storm surge of up to 11 feet damaged and destroyed a significant amount of the structures along coastal locations from Pasco county south through southwest Florida,” the NWS says of the 1921 storm on its
website.
In that system, winds were estimated to be 120 mph near the Tarpon Springs landfall point, the agency says, noting that “numerous power poles and trees were downed from the winds, roofs were badly damaged, and windows were blown out of structures.”
A Category 5 hurricane means that a storm has winds greater than 157 mph, and is likely to cause complete roof failure on many homes and industrial buildings,
according to the NHC.
‘Explosive Intensification’ Confirmed
A Monday afternoon warning from the NHC
said that Milton has undergone “explosive intensification,” has 175 mph winds, and the storm’s eye “is becoming better defined.”
The storm’s minimum central pressure has now fallen to around 911 millibars. In comparison, Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm that slammed into the Florida Panhandle in October 2018, was reported to have 919 millibars at its most intense period.
“Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs,” NHC said. “Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed.”
Small Eye Size
Milton’s intensification in wind speed by 92 mph in 24 hours trails only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007. One reason Milton strengthened so rapidly is its small size, with a “pinhole eye,” just like Wilma’s, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.The storm likely will have to go through what’s called an eyewall replacement cycle, a natural process that forms a new eye and expands the storm in size but weakens its wind speeds, Klotzbach said.
The Gulf of Mexico is warm right now, so “the fuel is just there,” and Milton probably went over an extra-warm eddy that helped strengthen it, said University of Albany hurricane scientist Kristen Corbosiero.
The hurricane center forecasts a slight weakening before landfall in Florida. The last hurricane to be a Category 5 at landfall in the mainland U.S. was Michael in 2018.
Evacuations Ordered
Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in 13 months, including Helene.Ahead of Milton’s landfall, multiple counties along Florida’s western coast have
issued evacuation orders. That includes Hillsborough County, which issued orders for Evacuation Zones A and B as well as for all manufactured and mobile homes starting at 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday.
Authorities in Sarasota County issued evacuation orders for people living in levels A and B,
including the barrier islands, as well as people in manufactured or mobile houses. People living in Sarasota’s level C area should be prepared to evacuate, officials said.
The Florida city of Anna Maria, an island municipality to the south of Tampa in Manatee County, said it would
start mandatory evacuations at mid-day Monday.
Pinellas County
said that it has started mandatory evacuations for long-term care facilities. Pinellas County officials are also “encouraging voluntary evacuation for residents in Zone A, B, and C and mobile homes in advance of possible mandatory orders Monday.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
