Rematches will be a theme of the 2024 election cycle with a likely 2020 replay between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump headlining a ballot that, nationwide, will also see at least 22 midterm Congressional race losers challenging the incumbents who defeated them in 2022.
That number could grow with Congressional filing deadlines still months away in dozens of states but, as of Feb. 27, there were 14 Democrats and eight Republicans taking on the same incumbents who defeated them two years ago, although several face competitive primaries to earn the nod.
Voters in at least 17 states will see 2022 Congressional race reenactments on their November 2024 ballots, including three in California and two each in New York, Texas, and Pennsylvania—key states in determining which party controls a House where Republicans maintain a toe-hold 219-213 majority.
Prominent GOP 2022 House race losers seeking 2024 replays against incumbents who beat them nearly 16 months ago include former Reps. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) and Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.), are both aiming to flip seats they flipped in 2020 but lost in the midterms.
Other familiar names among Republicans seeking to avenge 2022 losses in 2024 rematches are former Green Beret Joe Kent in Washington and J.R. Majewski in Ohio.
Democrat Congressional come-backers include veteran state Sen. Tony Vargas in Nebraska and a trio of longtime California state political stalwarts, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins and veteran state assemblymen Adam Gray and Rudy Salas.
Ten of the 14 Democrats running for Congressional seats after losing the 2022 elections, several by less than 1 percent, are challenging Republican incumbents in districts Mr. Biden beat Mr. Trump in 2020.
According to Inside Elections, the average “Vote Above Replacement” of the 22 rematch challengers running again in 2024 was a -1 VAR.
VAR measures a political candidate’s strength relative to a typical candidate from their party within the same state derived using Inside Elections’ Baseline, which captures a state or Congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single trimmed mean.
A higher VAR indicates a strong performance relative to expectations. While the -0.1 VAR for retread hopefuls is in the negative—they did, after all, lose—it indicates how narrowly they came to winning and why they’re seeking rematches in 2024.
Rematches will see Nick Begich, the Alaska Republican who placed third behind Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and former GOP Gov. Sarah Palin in the state’s 2022 ranked-choice primary, try to win the seat in a state Mr. Trump won by more than 10 percentage points in 2020.
In Michigan, Democrat Carl Marlinga, a former federal judge and prosecutor, will again challenge Rep. John James (R-Mich.), and Democrat Monica Tranel, a Missoula attorney, and two-time Olympic rower, will meet Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) in a rematch of their relatively close 2022 race.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat Ashley Ehasz in CD 1 will again try to unseat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) as will Democrat Shamaine Daniels in CD 10 against Republican Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) where the incumbents are favored in purple districts.
The following is a roundup of 10 Congressional rematches, and a few pending primary outcomes, where 2022 opponents in close elections appear set to square off again in 2024.
California’s Duarte In Democrat Crosshairs
California Congressional District 13 (CD 13): In 2022, first-term Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) edged former State Assemblyman Adam Gray by 564 votes out of 133,556 ballots cast, the nation’s second-closest midterm Congressional election.In 2024, Mr. Duarte will again face Mr. Gray in a district that Mr. Biden won by 11.1 percent in 2020 and that the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) rates as +4 Democrat in one of nine California congressional races where there are only two March 5 primary candidates, so the November dance card is set.
Mr. Duarte began 2024 with nearly $1 million more in his campaign kitty than Mr. Gray, whose 49.8 percent tally in 2022 underperformed VAR by -0.6 percent. As of early 2024, however, Democrat voter registration surpassed Republicans 43 percent to 28 percent in the district.
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Elections Daily, and CNalysis all rate the CD 13 race as a tossup.
Kent Making Another Run
CD 3: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) slipped past Trump-endorsed Green Beret veteran and MAGA acolyte Joe Kent by less than 2,700 votes in 2022 in what was one of the biggest upsets in thwarting the GOP’s midterms’ red wave.Mr. Kent is campaigning for a rematch but must first defeat Camas City Council member Leslie Lewallen, a former prosecutor, in the Republican primary before he can take on Ms. Gluesenkamp Perez again in November.
Ms. Gluesenkamp Perez is one of five Democrats who won the 2022 elections in Congressional districts that Mr. Trump won largely because Mr. Kent’s 49.3 percent tally fell nearly 4.5 percentage points below expectations.
Salas Again Challenging Valadao
California CD 22: Incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) was reelected in 2022 by 1.1 percent, getting past Democrat Rudy Salas in a district where 42 percent of voters are registered as Democrats, 26.6 percent as Republicans.Mr. Salas, a five-term state assembly member, is seeking a general election rematch in a district Mr. Biden won by 12.8 percent in 2020. In winning 48.4 percent of the vote, he underperformed VAR by more than 3.5 percent.
While the Democrat faces no primary challengers, Mr. Valadao faces two party rivals in the March 5 preliminary—former Fresno City Councilor and cattle rancher Chris Mathys, a Trump-aligned conservative angry at Mr. Valadao for his January 2021 vote to impeach the former president, came within 1,200 votes of knocking Mr. Valadao out of the race during 2022’s primary.
State Sen. Melissa Hurtado is also on the primary ticket. Mr. Valadao had a $1.442 million campaign war chest as of Jan. 1, far more than any of his challengers.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily call a toss-up. Inside Elections gives it a “Tilt R” rating while CNalysis classifies it as “Tilt D [flip].”
Calvert-Rollins Redo
California CD 41: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), the “dean” of California’s Congressional delegation, is headed for a likely rematch against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins to win a 17th term.CD 41 is a rare red California district with a + 4.6 GOP rating that Mr. Trump won by +1.1 percent in 2020, Mr. Rollins outperformed his party by 1.2 percent in his midterms contest with Mr. Calvert.
Both campaigns had raised more than $3 million with each entering 2024 with more than $2.2 million in their coffers.
Mr. Rollins must first defeat nurse Anna Nevenich in the March 5 primary to get on the November ballot. The five elections rating services call the CD 41 race “a tossup.”
Molinaro Versus the Map Versus Riley
New York CD 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) defeated Democrat John Riley by less than 1.6 percent in November 2022 in an upper Hudson Valley district Mr. Biden also won by 1.6 percent, outperforming the party by 14.6 percent.Mr. Molinaro’s election odds were buoyed by an independent commission map that tweaked CD 19 slightly redder but then dampened when state lawmakers on Feb. 26 rejected the map and replaced it with one that restored the district to its 2022 shade of blue.
The state’s Democrat-led legislature is expected to adopt the new maps by week’s end, perhaps as soon as Feb. 28.
Even left at 2022 boundaries, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates CD 19 as a “toss-up.” Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales gives it a “Tilt Republican” classification.
Mr. Riley, an attorney who has worked on former Rep. Maurice Hinchey’s (D-N.Y.) and former Sen. Al Franken’s (D-Minn.) staffs, was contemplating running in another district before state lawmakers rejected the independent commission’s map.
In securing 48.9 percent of the 2022 tally, Mr. Riley underperformed party expectations by -1.8 percent.
Mr. Molinaro is one of the Hudson Valley incumbents who face challenging demographics in reclaiming their seats in 2024. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) won his CD 17 district by less than 1 percent and Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) won his CD 18 race by 1.3 percent.
Mr. Lawler and Mr. Ryan also face toss-up elections but against different opponents. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (R-N.Y.) who lost a CD 10 primary battle against Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) in 2022, will take on Mr. Lawler in November.
Gonzalez-Flores Rio Grande Showdown
Texas CD 34: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) defeated Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) by a surprising 8.5 percent margin in a 2022 clash of incumbents fostered by post-2020 Census redistricting.Both will likely meet again in 2024 with Ms. Flores, who has huge fundraising, endorsements, and polling advantages, expected to knock off three party rivals in the March 5 primary to earn the GOP nod for a rematch against Mr. Gonzalez, who faces no primary opponents.
Ms. Flores won a June 2022 CD 34 special election to serve the remainder of retiring Democrat Rep. Filemon Vela’s term.
A conservative born in Mexico, she defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez by nearly 8 percentage points, becoming only the second GOP rep to win a Rio Grande Valley congressional district and first Latina Republican ever elected to Congress from Texas.
Five months later, Ms. Flores, now the incumbent in the majority-Hispanic district that includes the border city of Brownsville, was defeated by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) who opted to run in the newly redistricted CD 34 rather than CD 15, where he had won three elections since 2016.
Ms. Flores, the wife of a Border Patrol officer and evangelical Christian who has called for Mr. Biden’s impeachment and claims the Democratic Party is the “greatest threat America faces,” will be an underdog in November.
The Cook Political Report and Elections Daily rate the district as “Lean D.” Inside Election, Sabato’s, and CNalysis call the CD 34 race “Likely Democrat.”
Nevertheless, Ms. Flores and Mr. Gonzalez have been relatively even in polls, tying at 42 percent in a May survey, and Ms. Flores enters the 2024 election cycle with the highest VAR—6.3—of any defeated 2022 candidate while Mr. Gonzalez scored a -6.6 VAR but still won by 8.5 percent.
Herrell Seeks Fourth Seat Flip in Four Elections
New Mexico CD 2: In 2022, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) unseated Republican incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) by 50.32 percent to 49.68 percent, less than 1,250 votes. They are set for a November rematch with Ms. Herrell aiming to avenge the flip.New Mexico’s CD 2 has changed parties in the past three elections. Ms. Herrell ousted Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.) in 2020 before being ousted herself by Mr. Vasquez.
She has a reason for optimism in a race the five elections services rate as a toss-up. Ms. Herrell notched 49.6 percent of a 2022 tally, outperforming the GOP in the blue-tinged district by 3.6 VAR. Mr. Vasquez, meanwhile, underperformed by -1.6 VAR in defeating Ms. Herrell.
Majewski Faces Primary Battle
Ohio CD 9: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) in Ohio’s CD 9 out-performed her party by 2.9 percent in this red-tinged district in routing Republican J.R. Majewski to win her 21st term in 2022.She is running for a 22nd term and could face Mr. Majewski again if he can defeat state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova), who has been endorsed by House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), and former State Rep. Craig Riedel if he’s to take on Ms. Kaptur for a November rematch.
Davis In Newly Red District
North Carolina CD 1: First-time incumbent Don Davis (D-N.C.) faces no primary challengers but will be seeking reelection in a redrawn district the five elections services rate as a toss-up or leaning Republican and is among the NRCC’s top flip targets.He will most likely be squaring off again against farmer Sandy Smith who lost the CD 22 race by fewer than 5 percentage points to Mr. Davis in what was then a blue district but is now red.
Mr. Smith first faces consulting firm owner and retired U.S. Army Col. Laurie Buckhout in the GOP’s March 5 primary.
Despite the defeat, Mr. Smith outperformed the party by 2.1 VAR in 2022. To retain his seat, Mr. Davis will have to triple if not quadruple his 2022 VAR in 2024.
North Carolina’s redrawn Congressional map gives the GOP a chance to flip up to four Democrat-held House seats to turn the state’s 7-7 Congressional delegation into an 11-3 Republican bloc.
The Colonel Is Back For Vegas Rematch
Nevada CD 1: Former U.S. Army Col. Mark Robertson is again challenging six-term Rep. Dana Titus (D-Nev.) after losing his first-ever campaign in 2022 by 5.6 percent.In notching 46 percent of the tally in CD 1, where only 43.5 percent of voters are registered as Republicans, Mr. Robertson outperformed the party across the purple district by 2.5 percent.
In Nevada, where Democrats hold a 3-1 Congressional delegation advantage, all three incumbents in their Las Vegas-area districts—Ms. Titus in CD 1, Rep. Susie Lee In CD 3, Rep. Steven Horsford in CD 4—are on the Republicans’ must-go list.
More than $20 million was spent by outside groups in Nevada’s CD 1 and CD 3 mid-term elections, which saw Democrat incumbents narrowly get reelected. They are again expected to be battleground races in 2024.
Mr. Robertson will still have his work cut out for him. CD 1 is rated either “Likely D” or “Lean D” for the 2024 election cycle.
Ciscomani In Democrat Sights
Arizona CD 6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani, (R-N.M.), a longtime aide to Republican Gov. Ron Ducey, defeated Democrat Kristen Engel by fewer than 6,000 votes, 1.4 percent, in 2022 to succeed retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-N.M.) and flip the seat red.The first-term incumbent will have to beat Ms. Engel again in a district where Mr. Biden won 49.3 to 49.2, less than 0.1 percent, but where 50.7 percent of registered voters are Republicans.
The Cook Political Report gives CD 1 a tossup rating while Inside Elections and others call it “Tilt Republican.”
House Democrats also believe they can knock off Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) in CD 1, which Mr. Biden won by 1.5 percent in 2020. A formidable lineup of Democrat challengers is vying for the primary nod to take on the seven-term incumbent Republican in November.
