DETROIT—Republican nominee Mike Rogers has narrowed Michigan’s U.S. Senate race with Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in a contest that could alter the balance of power in the next Congress.
Rogers has closed the gap in statewide polls to 4 percentage points, down from 6 points a month ago. If successful, he would become the first Republican in 30 years to win a Senate seat in Michigan.
With the Democrats controlling the upper chamber by just one seat, a GOP win in Michigan could shift control of the Senate to the Republican Party after four years of a Democrat majority.
The Ground Game
Rogers, 61, represented Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District from 2001 to 2015. Slotkin, 48, has represented Michigan in Congress since 2018, serving first in the Eighth District and then in the Seventh District due to redistricting.Both candidates have a record of government service. Rogers is a former FBI special agent and a former Michigan state senator. Slotkin is a former CIA analyst and worked for the National Security Council, the State Department, and the Department of Defense.
The pair are vying for the open Senate to be vacated by the retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).
Slotkin has outspent Rogers by a factor of four, according to the most recent data from the Federal Election Commission.
She had spent $15.3 million by July 17 compared to $2.9 million by Rogers. Slotkin had $8.7 million on hand compared to Rogers’s $2.5 million as of that date.
Spending on this race by groups not controlled by the candidates has totaled $42.9 million for Slotkin and $40.3 million for Rogers, according to Open Secrets.
“We can’t beat them with money,” Rogers told The Epoch Times on Oct. 3, adding that the narrowing polls were due to the 2.7 million voter contacts made by his campaign.
“What we’ve been doing is shoe leather, knuckles [door knocks], phone calls. We did it the old-fashioned way.”
Speaking at a rally in Flint on Oct. 4, Slotkin urged attendees to engage in political dialogue before the election.
“I’m deputizing you to have two slightly uncomfortable conversations,” Slotkin said, asking listeners to speak about politics with family members, friends, and colleagues.
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said the Senate race is very competitive.
“Elissa leads, but nobody can take that for granted,” Dingell told The Epoch Times on Oct. 10.
Mentioning the presidential contest, Dingell said, “I think both of those races are going to come down to voter turnout.”
Rep. Lisa McLain (R-Mich.) agrees.
“We just have to understand the importance of getting out to vote,” she told The Epoch Times on Oct. 8.
“Vote early, because it’s going to matter.”
Some 70.5 percent of Michigan’s 8.4 million registered voters took part in the 2020 general election, the highest percentage in 60 years.
Reaching Undecideds
“There are three issues that the voters care about,” McLain said. “It’s the economy, the economy, the economy. It doesn’t matter what side of the aisle you’re on.”Rogers and Slotkin have mirrored the messaging of their presidential candidates on these issues, which focuses on job creation in the manufacturing sector, particularly auto manufacturing.
“The candidates, judging by their ads and communications via mailers and in speeches, evidently believe that there are undecided voters out there focused on the future health of the auto industry, EVs, economic and security threats from China, and government waste,” Ken Kollman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, told The Epoch Times via email.
“I think it’s the economy,” Rogers said when asked the definitive issue of the campaign.
Mentioning electric vehicle (EV) mandates and layoffs at Stellantis and General Motors, Rogers added, “People understand what’s happening, and it’s not good.”
The southern border and China are also concerns of Michigan voters, Rogers said.
Slotkin reminded listeners in Flint that Democrats had taken action to rebuild American infrastructure, bring supply chains back to the United States, and build up manufacturing so that the next generation of vehicles could be produced in America.
Video ads for Slotkin have focused on abortion access and lowering prescription drug prices.
Several undecided voters told The Epoch Times they’d seen campaign ads, but it was unclear how effective they were.
Michael Ford, 55, of Flint, reported seeing dozens of campaign ads but was unable to name both candidates.
He said he had heard of Slotkin and would likely vote for her, though not based on economic concerns.
“She was over there helping out with the military,” Ford said, referring to Slotkin’s service to the Department of Defense.
“That’s why I’ve got to roll with her.”
Dave, 71, of Flint, who declined to provide a last name, was unable to name the Democrat candidate but was aware of Rogers.
Dave said he would vote for Rogers based on party affiliation.
Tonna Denny, 61, of Swartz Creek, who identified herself as a Democrat, told The Epoch Times she hadn’t yet formed an opinion about the Senate race.
Balance of Power
Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is one of several that could change hands in this election according to Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election rating company.Democrats, including the four independents who caucus with them, currently hold a 51–49 seat majority.
The West Virginia seat vacated by the resignation of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is now rated as “Solid Republican.”
Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) race is rated “Lean Republican,” and three other races, including Michigan’s, are rated a tossup.
In Michigan, the race remains unpredictable, according to Kollman.
“I just don’t know what the polls are telling us,” he said. “It’s hard to interpret them now on this race and the presidential race in Michigan.”
Absentee balloting opened on Sept. 26.
Absentee ballots can be requested for any reason in the state.
Early in-person voting begins in Michigan on Oct. 26 and ends on Nov. 3. Election Day is Nov. 5.
The Epoch Times requested comments on the race from the Slotkin campaign and the Michigan Democratic Party but none were received by the time of publication.
