Michigan, Nevada Shift Toward GOP As Biden’s Approval Rating Slides: Cook Political Report

File photo showing voters filling out their ballots at a school gymnasium in Lansing, Michigan, on Nov. 03, 2020. John Moore/Getty Images

The states of Michigan and Nevada have shifted support toward Republicans as President Joe Biden’s polling numbers continue to slide, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report (CPR).

“It’s clear that President Joe Biden’s standing has diminished, even as opinions of former President Donald Trump haven’t improved from where they were in 2020,” says the report, which was published on Dec. 19.

In July, President Biden’s job approval rating was an “unimpressive” 41 percent favorable to 53 percent unfavorable, the report notes.

Since then, however, his approval rating among Americans has slid further to just 39 percent according to the latest FiveThirtyEight polling averages.

“As such, it is hard to justify keeping two battleground states—Nevada and Michigan—in the Lean Democrat column,” CPR’s Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter writes.

“We started these two states there because they have a slight Democratic advantage over the other four states we have in a toss-up: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,” Ms. Walter notes.

Unlike those other four battleground states, President Biden won a majority of the vote in Michigan and Nevada in 2020.

“At this point, however, Biden isn’t performing any better either in job approval or in head-to-head matchups with Trump in those states than in the other battleground contests,” the CPR analysis continued.

Key Issues Plaguing Biden’s Campaign

As a result, Nevada and Michigan have moved to join Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as so-called toss-up states for the presidential elections scheduled for Nov. 5 next year, according to CPR.

The report goes on to note a number of key issues currently hampering President Biden’s reelection hopes, including the ongoing Israel–Hamas conflict, which has been an especially divisive issue in Michigan, which is home to the largest share of Arab Americans in the United States.

“These voters make up something like 2-3 percent of the vote in the state and have been voting Democratic,” CPR notes.

Meanwhile in Nevada—where there is a higher share of Latino voters than the national average—President Biden’s “weak standing with Latino and younger voters has outsized repercussions,” Ms. Walter said.

The CPR analysis comes as Democrats have raised concerns that President Biden’s handling of the ongoing border crisis may significantly impact his reelection campaign.

Speaking to NewsNation’s “The Hill,” on Dec. 19, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said he believes the surge in illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border in recent years is “absolutely” hurting the Democrats 2024 campaign.

Border Crisis Hurting Democrats

Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicate there have been roughly 5.8 million encounters at the border since President Biden took office, not including “gotaways,” or illegal immigrants who were spotted by agents or captured on camera but have not been caught or processed by officials.

Mr. Cuellar, who represents Texas’s 28th congressional district, which includes the cities of Laredo, Rio Grande City, and San Antonio, said the Biden administration’s handling of the border issue is causing “resentment” to build up among Hispanic and Democratic voters.

“My district is about 80 percent Hispanic Democratic and guess what? When I go to church or when I go to the store, what are people telling me?” Mr. Cuellar said. “Henry, you got to secure the border. We got to do something,” he added.

“There’s a resentment … growing among Hispanics and Democrats because they followed the law and now we’re seeing people just jump the line and end up in New York and other places,” Mr. Cuellar said.

Earlier on Tuesday, one of President Biden’s reelection campaign co-chairs, Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), also expressed fears that the situation at the southern border could impact Democrats’ reelection bid.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a news conference at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., on Nov. 15, 2023. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images); (Right) Former President Donald Trump attends the UFC 295 event at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Nov. 11, 2023. Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Speaking to Politico on Tuesday, Ms. Escobar explained that people are “really frustrated” and “want to see the government manage situations,” but that the current administration has “failed over and over again.”

Despite concerns among Democrats, the Biden campaign has largely brushed off sluggish support numbers.

A White House spokesman told The Hill in November that polling numbers are “imperfect” and do not always accurately reflect or sway upcoming election results.

“Polling is imperfect, especially in today’s environment,” White House spokesman Andrew Bates said.