Manufacturing output surged in February, exceeding expectations and fueling optimism for Trump’s economic revival after years of industrial contraction.
Manufacturing output at U.S. factories surged in February, far exceeding expectations and reinforcing optimism about President Donald Trump’s promised manufacturing revival.
Factory output climbed 0.9 percent last month, triple the 0.3 percent growth forecast by economists polled by Reuters, following a 0.1 percent gain in January, the Federal Reserve
reported on March 18.
On an annual basis, manufacturing output rose 0.7 percent, a sign that the sector—accounting for 10.3 percent of the U.S. economy—is rebounding after more than two years of contraction.
The economy played an important role in Trump’s 2024 election victory, with voters backing his agenda to expand energy production and revive domestic manufacturing. Even before his inauguration in January, business optimism soared, driven by expectations that Trump’s policies would improve market conditions.
In February—Trump’s first full month in office—manufacturing growth accelerated significantly, data shows. Alongside the Federal Reserve’s industrial output report, the latest data from
S&P Global and the
Institute for Supply Management painted a similar picture of a sector regaining momentum after a prolonged downturn.
Vice President JD Vance reinforced this optimism during a March 14 visit to a Michigan plastics manufacturing facility, where he declared that the “great American comeback” was already underway. At the same time, Vance urged patience for the recovery to fully materialize.
“The road ahead of us is long,” he said. “But we are already, in just seven short weeks, starting to see early indications of the president’s vision becoming our shared American reality.”
Vance’s remarks come at a time when consumer sentiment has
slipped despite initial post-election euphoria. While many businesses anticipate growth, households remain wary of potential inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, driven in part by competing narratives on what impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have.
Trump has embraced tariffs as part of his economic strategy, arguing that any potential short-term disruptions will in time give way to long-term benefits. When asked by reporters outside the White House on March 11 to comment on a recent bout of market turmoil—and whether it points to a recession—Trump
said: “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.
“But as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I’m doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater.”
Still, uncertainty over Trump’s agenda has contributed to downbeat consumer confidence surveys from the
University of Michigan and
The Conference Board, which both indicate rising economic anxiety. Meanwhile, the data on small business confidence has been mixed.
The latest
data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) indicates growing concerns among small business owners. In February, the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting increasing uncertainty about economic conditions, policy changes, and inflation.
In contrast to the NFIB’s findings, the latest Freedom Economy Index (FEI)—a
report jointly produced by PublicSquare and RedBalloon—suggests that small business sentiment is seeing a dramatic turnaround, with the FEI report’s authors characterizing the shift as “out with the slump, in with the surge.”
The FEI survey, conducted in early March, shows a sharp increase in confidence among small business owners. According to the report, 80 percent of respondents say their economic outlook has improved since November. Additionally, 68 percent expect economic growth in 2025, a significant reversal from October 2024, when 57 percent of small business owners predicted a recession.
Also, the FEI report points to a significant rebound in hiring activity. Thirty-two percent of small businesses plan to expand their workforce in the next six months, a marked increase from 9.5 percent in October. At the same time, the number of businesses planning layoffs has fallen sharply, with only 2.6 percent expecting to cut jobs, compared to 10 percent last fall.
