Hurricane Hilary grew rapidly to Category 4 strength off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Friday and could reach Southern California as a tropical storm, according to forecast maps.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Hilary had sustained winds near 145 mph as of Friday morning and was expected to continue its rapid intensification through Friday before starting to weaken. It will nevertheless still be a hurricane when it approaches Mexico’s Baja California peninsula on Saturday night, and will approach Southern California on Sunday as a tropical storm.
A tropical storm watch was issued for Southern California on Friday afternoon, according to the NHC. Analysts say it’s the first time a tropical storm watch has ever been issued for the region.
That model also shows that the storm will remain a tropical depression until 12 a.m. Tuesday when it approaches the border between Idaho and Oregon more than 1,000 miles to the north.
Early Friday, Hilary was centered around 400 miles south of Los Cabos on the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. It was moving west-northwest at 13 mph, but was expected to turn gradually north through Saturday.
The Mexican government extended its hurricane watch and tropical storm warning northward for parts of the state of Baja California Sur, and also issued a tropical storm watch for parts of mainland Mexico.
When it impacts Southern California, the storm is forecast to produce heavy rainfall. Flash flooding will likely impact some of the driest portions of California.
“Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada, which would lead to significant and rare impacts. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,” the National Hurricane Center said.
In Southern California, an outlook for excessive rainfall stretched from Sunday to Tuesday, according to the Los Angeles weather office. The Mexican government said a weakened Hilary might hit the coast Sunday night between the cities of Playas de Rosarito and Ensenada, in Baja California state.
Meanwhile, the city of Yuma was preparing Thursday by providing residents with a self-serve sandbag filling station. The sandbag station will be stocked with sand and empty bags for self-filling while supplies last. Residents were allowed five sandbags per vehicle.
Local reports indicated that the City of San Diego has established an Emergency Operations Center before Hilary makes landfall. San Diego County is also offering residents sandbags.
‘Above-Normal’ Season
Amid the current lull in the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center raised its 2023 prediction for the 2023 season from near-normal to “above-normal.”NOAA said that for 2023, there will be 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 will become at least Category 1 hurricanes. Of that, two to five will become major hurricanes.
The 2023 season ends on Nov. 30, while peak storm activity is generally in early September. So far, there have been five tropical storms and Hurricane Don, which dissipated in the North Atlantic Ocean.
