Early voting has been underway since Sept. 30 in Louisiana’s Oct. 14 primaries for state legislature, attorney general, secretary of state, and governor in “off-year” elections being watched nationwide for possible portends of 2024 trends.
Under the Bayou State’s “jungle primary” system, where all contenders are on the same ballot, discernible undertows in voter sentiment could surface quickly and decisively.
Candidates who garner 50 percent or more of the primary tally win, game over.
Otherwise, the top two vote-getters move on to a Nov. 18 general election runoff.
The most-watched Louisiana race is for governor where 14 candidates—seven Republicans, five independents, two Democrats—seek to succeed term-limited Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards.
Despite participating in only one of four gubernatorial candidate debates, Louisiana two-term Attorney General Jeff Landry appears to have a lock on at least a runoff berth. With some polls indicating his support at or above 50 percent, the big Oct. 14 question is if there will be a Nov. 18 runoff.
“It is unlikely but possible” Mr. Landry could win the gubernatorial race in the Saturday primary vote, Pelican Institute for Public Policy Chief Executive Officer Daniel J. Erspamer told The Epoch Times.
The six other Republicans in the race—including two-term state Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R-Slidell), State Treasurer John Schroder, and Louisiana Association of Business and Industry president Stephen Waguespack—have rarely topped single digits in polls despite several being well-known.
That trio and independent Lake Charles attorney Hunter Lundy are vying for a “second place” Oct. 14 finish to get into a November face-off with Mr. Landry.
That is also unlikely, Mr. Erspamer said. With only two Democrats on the ballot and the lion’s share of those votes expected to go to Shawn Wilson, a former Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development secretary, he is favored to finish second.
State Election With National Impact
Louisiana’s elections are significant nationwide because, “just from a political perspective, it is highly likely this will be a flip.“The state has been led by a Democrat for eight years, so it is headed for significant change,” Mr. Erspamer said. “Almost certainly, the Senate will be a [GOP] supermajority and the House will have a one-vote margin to stay a simple majority.”
Louisiana is key in Congressional energy debates with the nation’s most active natural gas fields and offshore drilling, he said, meaning its 2023 elections could serve as momentum-builders in directing where discussions go in 2024 and beyond.
These factors illustrate “the kind of impact Louisiana has on the rest of the country,” Mr. Erspamer said, with crime, “fiscal health,” and tax reform among top issues in the race certain to drive 2024 campaigns countrywide.
But two issues unique to Louisiana have emerged as campaign issues, he said.
Like other Gulf States, especially Florida, the state is dealing with a property insurance crisis but, unlike Florida, it is plagued by “out-migration.”
Mr. Erspamer said after speaking with people in 20 parishes recently, he’s learned “the overarching issue, the big theme I hear from voters is, we’re the third-highest ‘out-migration’ state in the country per capita.
“More people are leaving here than any other state but California and Illinois to find work and opportunity.”
Louisianans want “significant transformational policies that can turn that tide,” he said, noting this “over-arching issue” is prompting a range of candidate initiatives, especially in education.
“Every candidate has made education a top three issue. There’s a lot of discussion from Republicans and independents about school choice, parental rights, ESAs [Education Savings Accounts],” Mr. Erspamer said. “Lots of discussion about recruiting teachers, literacy, especially early literacy.”
Like many states, Louisiana has a post-COVID “record” budget surplus, making its 2023 elections a referendum on “what should be done with that money,” he said. “Most, not all, are talking about tax reform.”
Property Insurance an ‘Urgent Issue’
But first things first. The state’s property insurance crisis is emerging as “an urgent, near-term policy issue” in the primaries, Mr. Erspamer said.About a dozen property insurers have left Louisiana since hurricanes Laura, Delta, and Zeta in 2020 and Ida in 2021. About 100,000 homeowners—triple 2018’s enrollment—have been forced to secure policies through Louisiana’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state-backed “insurer of last resort,” potentially putting taxpayers on the hook for storm damage.
“Homeowners and businesses are receiving their renewals right about now and the rates are going through the roof,” Mr. Erspamer said.
Republican Tim Temple will succeed longtime Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon in January after his only opponent, Democrat Rich Weaver, withdrew in August.
“A lot of people are looking at Tim to take the lead in crafting a reform package. There’s some discussion of a special session after [legislators] are sworn in,” Mr. Erspamer said.
“How they deal with it, we’ll see. I suspect they will do some reforms through regulatory action but the legislature certainly wants a bite” as will the new governor.
The Louisiana election is one of three 2023 gubernatorial contests after 36 governor elections in 2022. There are 26 Republican and 24 Democrat governors.
In Kentucky, a Republican attorney general is challenging a Democrat incumbent. Gov. Andy Beshear faces a stiff challenge from Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
In Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is favored to win a second term.
Louisiana is one of four states with 2023 legislature elections. Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi, and Democrats in New Jersey, are expected to retain if not grow majorities.
Still, Virginia’s Nov. 7 election could see the GOP wrest control of the purple state’s General Assembly in this fall’s most-watched election.
