Shawn Wilson is not a household name in Louisiana, so the Democrat gubernatorial candidate has been dropping his name on the doorsteps of as many households as possible in a frantic final sprint to the state’s Oct. 14 primary.
A former Louisiana Department of Transportation & Development Secretary, Mr. Wilson is staging a “45,000-mile campaign,” barnstorming parishes, churches, community centers, and homes across the state’s byways and bayous to spur lagging turnout for an off-year election that has not generated much excitement among voters, especially black Democrat voters.
And he needs that surge.
Without Democrats showing up Saturday to cast in-person ballots, Mr. Wilson’s odds of making it to a November runoff against Republican frontrunner Jeff Landry in the race to succeed term-limited Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards will need to rely on the attorney general’s GOP rivals whittling back the margin of his near-certain first-place Oct. 14 finish.
Under Louisiana’s “jungle primary” system, all contenders are on the same ballot. Candidates who garner 50 percent or more of the primary tally win, game over. Otherwise, the top two vote-getters move onto a Nov. 18 runoff.
Mr. Landry appears to have a lock on at least a runoff berth. With some polls indicating his support at or above 50 percent, the big Saturday question is if there will be a need for a Nov. 18 runoff.
Mr. Wilson, one of just two Democrats on the ballot, is among the 13 gubernatorial candidates not named “Landry” vying for a second-place finish with enough collective votes to keep the first-place finisher below 50 percent.
Fellow Republicans likely to shave votes away from Mr. Landry include two-term state Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R-Slidell), State Treasurer John Schroder, and Louisiana Association of Business & Industry President Stephen Waguespack.
The GOP trio and independent Hunter Lundy, a Lake Charles attorney, have stubbornly retained single-digit support in polls. While individually disappointing, their collective tallies are likely to be enough to keep Mr. Landry from securing a walk-off win on Saturday—and to inadvertently open a lane for Mr. Wilson to advance to a runoff.
At least, that appears to be Mr. Wilson’s best bet because, otherwise, it does not appear that Louisiana’s Democrats are very excited about the state’s Oct. 14 ballot, which, in addition to the gubernatorial contest, includes elections for lieutenant governor secretary of state, attorney general, all state Legislature seats, more than 200 local offices, and four proposed constitutional amendments.
Turnout Trending To 20-Year Low
A Public Affairs Research Council (PARC) Oct. 12 analysis expects the Oct. 14 primary to produce a “lower turnout than … the state’s prior governor’s elections over the last 20 years.”That’s not a good sign for Democrats on primary ballots in races across the state since their party’s candidates generally do better in early voting tallies than Republicans do.
Turnout for Louisiana’s 2019 primary, 1.34 million, was 51 percent. The Associated Press and others project about 1.3 million will vote in the 2023 primary, less than 43 percent of the state’s 2.97 million registered voters.
But that projection could be optimistic since 40,000 fewer people cast early votes in 2023 than in 2019, with at least an 8 percent decline in black voter participation, according to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office.
Urban League and Black Voters Matter are among Democrat groups trying to mobilize voters. Black Voters Matter cites a “lack of investment in voter mobilization” by national Democratic organizations and donors to achieve a “significant historical moment”—the first potential election of a black Louisianan to a statewide position since the Reconstruction.
Both organizations are among critics that claim national Democrats, and even the Wilson campaign itself, has not emphasized that potential historical milestone enough, a memorable nugget that could elevate Mr. Wilson’s name recognition and compel a larger Saturday turnout.
Mr. Wilson’s campaign said it is doing all that as Saturday’s vote nears, and is certain his efforts will spur a turnout that surprises prognosticators and sends a shot across Mr. Landry’s bow: He’s in for a runoff battle.
“Since March, Shawn Wilson has traveled more than 45,000 miles meeting with communities across Louisiana to talk about what is at stake this election, up and down the ballot,” Mr. Wilson’s campaign manager, Brandin Campbell, said in a statement.
“His work ethic and commitment to all Louisianans has earned him the support of elected leaders, community advocates, and a strong coalition of allies who understand this is an all-hands-on-deck effort to take on Jeff Landry in the runoff and elect the most qualified slate of candidates to move Louisiana forward,” he said.
The polls open at 7 a.m. Oct. 14 and close at 8 p.m. If past elections are a barometer, “official” results in called elections could be posted as early as 9 p.m. on the Secretary of State’s website, with most elections final by 10:30 p.m.
As with Louisiana, in Kentucky, a Republican attorney general is challenging a Democrat incumbent. Gov. Andy Beshear faces a stiff challenge from Attorney General Daniel Cameron. In Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is favored to win a second term.
Louisiana is one of four states with 2023 Legislature elections. Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi, and Democrats in New Jersey, are expected to retain if not grow majorities, but Virginia’s Nov. 7 election could see the GOP wrest control of the purple state’s General Assembly in this fall’s most-watched election.
