Lockdown-Era Learning Loss Could Cost Students Thousands in Future Earnings

Federal government spending billions to bolster performance

A U.S. classroom in a file photo. Michael Loccisano/Getty Images

Education disruptions that occurred during the lockdowns and school closures in the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic could cost students tens of thousands of dollars in future income and remove trillions from state economies, according to a report from the Hoover Institution.

The January report by Eric Hanushek, a senior fellow at the institution and internationally recognized expert on the economics of education, concludes that lockdown-era students will earn between 2 to 9 percent less during their lifetimes, depending on their learning loss.

“Extensive research demonstrates a simple fact: those with higher achievement and greater cognitive skills earn more,” Hanushek stated in the report. “The evidence suggests that the value of higher achievement persists across a student’s entire work life.”

That would amount to a lifetime loss in income in the tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars over a student’s lifetime.

Education Nosedive

Education dropped significantly in the United States during the pandemic as measured by The Nation’s Report Card, an assessment of student performance provided periodically by the National Center for Education Statistics.

The 2022 Report Card showed that average scores declined in reading and math for both 4th and 8th graders.

Fourth-grade reading scores declined by 3 points to 217, the lowest level reported since 2000. The reading score for 8th graders fell by 3 points to 260, the lowest level since 1994.

A teacher gestures to her class of mask-wearing students at Medora Elementary School in Louisville, Ky. on March 17, 2021. Jon Cherry/Getty Images

The cause of the decline was likely not the virus itself, since children were among the least affected. However, widespread school closures, the switch to online learning, hybrid learning, and other instructional approaches created significantly disrupted the learning context for millions of students.

“All of these factors played out unevenly, with some children faring much better than others. The success of pandemic education was by all accounts skewed against disadvantaged children, although again there was high variance,” Hanushek concluded.

Student achievement varied widely among states during the pandemic, and cannot be precisely correlated to a single factor.

Wyoming—which had the fewest disruptions in in-person schooling according to Burbio—saw a 2-point drop in 4th-grade reading scores, while Alaska, which had less than 50 percent in-person instruction, gained 2 points.

Geographical location does not appear to have been a factor, as both Oklahoma and Delaware lost 12 points in 8th-grade math scores.

That lost education translates into lost wages according to Hunshek, because of the high value the American labor market places on skill.

“The evidence on the labor market value of skills implies that the average student during the pandemic will have 5.6 percent lower lifetime earnings.”

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the average annual wage in the United States at $58,260. That could mean earning some $130,000 less over a 40-year working career.

Those losses in income could be permanent if no action is taken.

“In short, fully returning to prior schooling practices can halt increases in learning losses, but simply returning to these practices will leave this generation and the nation worse off,” Hanushek wrote.

Federal Money to Rescue

To erase the pandemic-related learning deficit, the federal government has distributed some $190 billion to states for education relief.

The CARES Act funneled $13.2 billion to states for the purpose in March 2020, which was to have been spent by Sept. 20, 2022.

Another $54.3 billion from the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act was made available in December 2020, to be spent by Sept. 30, 2023.

An exterior view of the building of the U.S. Department of the Treasury is seen in Washington, on March 27, 2020. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

An additional $122 billion from the American Rescue Plan was earmarked for state-level education relief in March 2021, with $80 billion immediately available and the balance to be distributed based on the submission of state spending plans. Those funds must be spent by 2024.

States have taken varied approaches to use the funds.

Indiana announced a $111 million spending program to achieve 95 percent reading proficiency among 3rd graders in five years, up from the current 81.6 percent. Funds will be used to implement a science-based approach to teaching reading.

California designated $2.1 billion for the purchase of devices, broadband, and connectivity to ensure that students had the tools for remote learning.

Florida planned to spend its more than $7 billion in federal relief funding to provide grants for school districts to invest in evidence-based reading strategies and professional development for teachers to use those strategies, and to create summer learning and expanded after-school programs to help get students up to grade level in reading.

New York planned to use $195 million of its nearly $9 billion in funding to create new full-day prekindergarten programs for 4-year-olds and to expand current programs.

Relief funds can be used for a variety of educational purposes, including improving technology and infrastructure, increasing support for teachers, making building repairs, and offering psychological support to students. State spending plans for relief funds are available to the public on the U.S. Department of Education website.

The impact of the billions in support funding and the strategies chosen by the states will likely not be measurable for some time.

The next round of assessments for the Nation’s Report Card is scheduled for 2024.