Koch-Backed Group Predicts Former Democrats Will Back Haley in New Hampshire

Republican presidential hopeful and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a get-out-the-vote rally in Nashua, New Hampshire, on January 20, 2024. Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s ambitions to win the New Hampshire primary will rely heavily on undeclared voters and former Democrats, according to a political strategist supporting her campaign.

Greg Moore, a senior advisor for Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action), the Super PAC supporting Ms. Haley, said he thinks over 330,000 voters could turn out for the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23. At this stage, there are only roughly 267,000 Republicans registered to vote in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters can still opt-in to make up the gap.

“That’s like 40% of the registered voters are going to come out and vote in a Republican primary. And that’s just a bonkers number if you think about it,” Mr. Moore said.

“That’s the sort of thing that makes New Hampshire different. The thing about that group is that they tend to be very swingy and they tend to decide late,” he added.

According to Mr. Moore, undeclared voters might flock to the Republican ballot because there is little choice or competition in the Democratic primary, where President Joe Biden is a write-in candidate and not facing a serious challenger. Undeclared voters can choose either party’s ballot in a primary. For Democrats to vote in the GOP primary, they needed to renounce their party affiliation by Oct. 7 last year.

Former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses last week in a landslide victory, taking more than 56,000 votes, and walking away with just over 50% of the roughly 110,000 ballots cast. He will likely secure 20 delegates out of the 40 at stake as a result. Whoever can get 1215 delegates will win the GOP presidential nomination.

In his opinion, Mr. Moore says that because the New Hampshire primary has a much higher count of voters, it will be a much better gauge of candidates’ broader appeal in the 2024 presidential election. If Ms. Haley can win in New Hampshire, he thinks it will be a boon for her presidential bid.

“What that means is that you have an electorate that is much more representative of the general electorate as a consequence,” he said.

“Her ability to pull from that in a purple state demonstrates the strength that she has in a general election,” Mr. Moore added.

Push For Democrats to Vote for Nikki Haley

There has been a push for former Democrat voters to cast a ballot for Nikki Haley in the GOP primary to try and prevent former President Trump from receiving the nomination. Former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, said it could help subvert President Trump’s 2024 presidential aspirations.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said during a Wall Street conference that he wanted everyone present to help Ms. Haley secure the Republican nomination because he thinks she would be a stronger alternative to former President Trump. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has claimed rather than dumping President Joe Biden for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, they’re backing Nikki Haley instead.

Former President Trump addressed the claims during a Jan. 20 rally in Manchester, calling the whole affair a “terrible thing.”

“They want to turn liberal voters into Republicans for about 10 minutes while they vote, and then go back to being liberal voters in the Democrat vote,” he said.

AFP Action, founded by businessmen David and Charles Koch in 2004, has been one of the best-funded political organizations in the United States. The Super PAC first announced its plans to oppose President Trump earlier this year, claiming that he is ill-equipped to defeat current President Joe Biden in 2024. The group stayed out of the 2016 and 2020 election cycles. Former President Trump has been critical of the Kochs, branding them “globalist” in 2018.

“The globalist Koch brothers, who have become a total joke in real Republican circles, are against strong borders and powerful trade. I never sought their support because I don’t need their money or bad ideas,” he said at the time.

Bloomberg News contributed to this report.