California lawmakers wanted to know if retail theft has increased in the past decade, so they turned to the experts.
“California needs comprehensive data collection and analysis to better tackle retail theft and its impacts,” the report said. “California’s Department of Justice has made a fine start in collecting criminal-justice related data, but this effort needs to be expanded significantly.”
Dozens of lawmakers sent a letter to the commission on June 14, 2023, asking for an investigation after “rising crime rates in 2021” led to criticism of Proposition 47, which voters passed in 2014 to lower prison populations by changing some drug and theft crimes from felonies to misdemeanors. A proposal to increase such penalties is on the November ballot, as Prop. 47 critics say the law limits law enforcement officials and prosecutors.
“However, a lack of aggregated data makes it difficult to substantiate these claims,” the letter read. “In order for the Legislature to best address retail theft, it must have a better understanding of what is actually occurring from a data-driven viewpoint.”
The panel of 12 ultimately concluded that under-reporting of theft crimes complicates analyses and that while some thefts are not reported to police and thus not counted in crime statistics, under-reporting is “extremely difficult to measure” and “hotly debated.”
“Retailers and some law enforcement officials suggest a substantial amount of under-reporting,” commissioners wrote in the report. “Scholars who study data about retail theft say it is difficult to assess the level of under-reporting with any degree of certainty.”
The report said more information is needed.
“Little data is available,” the report read. “Retailers say that they rarely call law enforcement when theft occurs, and some law enforcement officials say there are few consequences even if citations are issued.”
Some researchers agreed that it’s tough to get a handle on the issue.
“We don’t have sufficiently detailed data to really, truly help us,” Magnus Lofstrom, policy director of criminal justice and senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California, told The Epoch Times. “The challenge there is that we don’t have the information on all the incidents, but more importantly, we don’t know how the degree of under-reporting changes over time.”
If under-reporting levels remained constant, it would be easier to confidently estimate theft levels, he said.
Several factors contribute to changes, according to Mr. Lofstrom. A belief that police won’t respond or that district attorneys won’t charge could contribute to under-reporting, but media coverage could prompt the opposite, driving more retailers to report.
He noted that better data would assist lawmakers and help the state improve public safety.
“The more complete or accurate information that we can have for these incidents, the better position we’ll be to address the challenges,” Mr. Lofstrom said.
The commission report acknowledged that many Californians are concerned about videos on social media showing “brazen” property thefts and businesses locking up items on their shelves and employing more security measures to protect inventory.
However, they noted that available data for 2022 showed “a more nuanced picture,” increasing for the year but below levels from past decades.
Newly released data from the state’s Department of Justice for 2023 also failed to paint a complete picture, with 28 law enforcement agencies absent from the totals.
The report pointed to difficulty in describing the impact of theft across the state, as criminal behavior varied, with urban areas experiencing higher rates of theft than rural counterparts.
Retailers reported higher levels of loss for the year, and the commission found that some businesses are closing because of theft, more expensive insurance premiums, and expenses related to securing goods.
“In extreme cases, these cumulative expenses can result in business closures, subsequently affecting local employment,” the report said. “Mom-and-pop businesses have a smaller safety net than national retailers to recover from these losses.”
Other impacts of theft cited by the report include higher prices on products as retailers recoup losses, and shopping experiences becoming more unpleasant as businesses lock up items.
“This, in turn, can lead consumers to shop elsewhere, further harming the store’s bottom line,” the report said.
The criminal justice system is also burdened by thefts, as limited resources could be used for more serious crimes, the report found.
Commissioners recommended the state’s Department of Justice collect comprehensive data—including the circumstances surrounding crimes, law enforcement responses, demographic data of those arrested, charges filed by prosecutors, and the ultimate disposition of any court cases. Additionally, data is requested regarding offenders’ rehabilitation efforts, reentry, and recidivism rates.
“State lawmakers should mandate and appropriately fund the collection of detailed data that would allow California leaders and researchers to better understand the circumstances around crime and the people involved in it,” the report said.
Studies detailing preventive measures, commercial victimization, stolen good sales, economic impacts of theft, and drivers of public perception conducted in collaboration with the state’s universities, community colleges, and nonpartisan research institutions are also suggested.
