Iowans Will Face Arctic Temperatures on Caucus Night

A person uses a snowblower to clear a sidewalk as a snowstorm dumps several inches of snow on the area in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 9, 2024. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The Hawkeye State will face subzero temperatures as it holds the Republican Party of Iowa’s Caucus on Jan. 15.

How Cold?

The latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Des Moines, Iowa, published Sunday afternoon, predicts a daytime high of -1 degrees Fahrenheit with winds of 8 to 14 miles per hour, which will drop the so-called wind chill to -30 degrees F. Overnight, the temperature will drop to -10 degrees F with similar wind chills.

Similar conditions are expected across the state on Monday. When windchill temperatures are that low, according to the Nationwide Children’s Hospital, parents are advised to keep their children indoors to avoid the rapid onset of frostbite.

The NWS’s Des Moines, Iowa, office said in its latest area forecast discussion report, published on Jan. 14, that the forecast period is a “tale of good news and bad news.”

“Good news: The wind has diminished some and the significant blowing and drifting has ended,” the report said. “Bad news: An Arctic airmass is in place and early afternoon temperatures across Iowa range from 5 below to 15 below zero with wind chills are 25 to 40 below.”

The NWS said that Iowa is caught in a deep snowpack from the multiple blizzards that hit last week, which is acting as a “local refrigerant.”

According to the NWS’s historic data, the average low for Jan. 15 is 13 degrees F. The record low, recorded in 1888, was -27 degrees F. Monday night’s Iowa Caucuses will be toasty by comparison.

Committed To Caucus

The blizzards and the near-record cold forced Republican hopefuls President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley to cancel events across Iowa, or convert them into digital presentations, in the past week.

On Sunday, the Haley campaign was forced to shutter an event in Dubuque. The night before, President Trump held a “telerally” at the Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, the respective campaigns are dinging their rivals for shuttering events and hailing the fortitude of their own supporters for showing up despite dangerous conditions.

The deepfreeze is inspiring much speculation by the parachuting national press in Des Moines that the cold weather will drive down turnout. By comparison, Washington will be tropical on Monday with a daytime high of 33 degrees F, according to the NWS.

Some Iowans who spoke with The Epoch Times scoffed at the notion of missing the Caucus due to the weather, while others acknowledged the possibility of sunshine patriots staying near the stove Monday night.

People arrive at a campaign event for Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 13, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In a key poll published by the Des Moines Register on Jan. 13, respected pollster J. Ann Selzer wondered if the candidates with more enthusiasm will benefit from the Arctic conditions, while those with less passionate support will suffer. She marked Ms. Haley as the most likely to see voters stay home on Monday night, in her view.

At a Sunday rally for President Trump in Indianola, Iowa, speakers backing the former president said the number of attendees was evidence enough that Iowans will not be deterred by a little cold wind.

In a statement sent in response to the Selzer poll, President Trump implored his voters to show up on caucus night.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, on Jan. 14, 2024. Scott Olson/Getty Images

In a video appeal recorded outdoors somewhere in Iowa, Ms. Haley—without a hat, gloves, or a scarf—advised her fans to “wear some layers, bring your [identification], and bring your friends.”

In an email sent by her principal campaign committee on Sunday afternoon, Ms. Haley said, “I want to stress how important it is that you show up tomorrow night and make your voice heard.”

“I know its cold out there. I know the weather has been rough. But tomorrow, you have a chance to make history,” the message said. “Tomorrow night is too important for you to stay home.”

On Jan. 12, Mr. DeSantis told his volunteers in Urbandale, Iowa, that the impact of the weather on the caucus is simply a “major wildcard.”

“What it does for the overall turnout, I mean, nobody can forecast what the turnout is going to be,” Mr. DeSantis said.

Lawrence Wilson, Janice Hisle, and John Haughey contributed to this report.