Former President Donald Trump has gained widespread attention this year in his quest to secure the Republican party’s nomination, but the most consequential primary so far could be the Ohio U.S. Senate GOP race.
On March 19, Trump-backed businessman Bernie Moreno, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and state Sen. Matt Dolan will vie for their party’s nomination.
The winner will face longtime Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown in the general election.
Many Republican pundits and elected officials have said that they think that victory in Ohio will allow the party to gain control of the chamber in January 2025.
Mr. Brown, 71, is unopposed in the Democrat primary. He was first elected to the Senate in 2007 and has kept his seat in a deep red state.
President Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2016 and 2020. Ten of the 15 U.S. House members are Republicans. The GOP has a super-majority in the state Legislature, and Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is in his second term.
In 2022, bolstered by a late endorsement by President Trump, J.D. Vance won the GOP U.S. Senate primary and then defeated longtime Democrat Congressman Tim Ryan in the general election.
Most of Ohio’s 88 counties lean conservative, but the urban counties anchored by Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron, Dayton, and Toledo are Democrat strongholds.
In Ohio and nationally, Republicans believe that Mr. Brown is vulnerable because of his consistent support for President Joe Biden’s legislation.
GOP primary polls have shown varying results.
Emerson College released a poll last month showing Mr. Brown leading all of his Republican challengers.
Mr. Dolan trailed by one point, and Mr. LaRose and Mr. Moreno each faced a two-point deficit. The hypothetical matchups fall within the survey’s 2.3-percentage-point margin of error.
Survey USA conducted a poll for the Center for Election Science from Feb. 27 to March 3 indicating that Mr. Moreno leads the race with 29 percent support, followed by Mr. Dolan (27 percent) and Mr. LaRose (21 percent).
The remaining respondents (23 percent) said they were undecided.
On March 13, Emerson College released a new poll showing that Mr. Dolan now sits atop the field with 25.5 percent, while Mr. Moreno gained 22.8 percent support and Mr. LaRose 15.9 percent.
The largest portion of Republican voters (32 percent) reported that they were undecided.
The Trump Factor
Mr. Moreno and Mr. Dolan were part of a crowded GOP primary in 2022, when seven candidates were competing to replace Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who decided to not seek reelection.Mr. Dolan was the only candidate who did not publicly support President Trump.
At the urging of President Trump, Mr. Moreno dropped out of the race and endorsed Mr. Vance. He even took the role of Mr. Ryan in Mr. Vance’s debate preparations.
When Mr. Moreno announced in April 2023 that he was entering the race to “retire Sherrod Brown,” President Trump expressed his support on Truth Social and then formally endorsed the entrepreneur.
Mr. Vance backs Mr. Moreno too and has joined him multiple times on the campaign trail. Mr. Moreno also has the support of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem, Ohio entrepreneur and former Republican presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and 14 other conservative senators, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Dolan Endorsements
Mr. Dolan recently received endorsements from Mr. Portman and Mr. DeWine, two men considered moderates by many Ohio conservatives.Andy Surabian, a Republican strategist allied with President Trump and one of Mr. Moreno’s advisers, posted his opinion of the primary on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
“The Ohio Senate race is officially Team America First versus Team RINO,” Mr. Surabian wrote.
Wes Farno, an Ohio Republican strategist, told The Epoch Times that the outcome on March 19 will define “what the Republican party looks like” for the presidential race and Senate race in the general election.
“If Bernie wins, it’s MAGA conservative. If Dolan wins, it’s a moderate Republican party. If Frank wins, it’s a little of both,” Mr. Farno said.
“No matter who wins, it’s important to tell Ohio voters who Sherrod Brown is. He fully supports President Biden. He will say he wants border security and is tough on crime. His record shows otherwise.
“The Sherrod Brown on the campaign trail is different than the Sherrod Brown in D.C.”
Mr. Moreno likely hopes that the Trump endorsement will produce the same results as in 2022, when the former president backed Mr. Vance late in the race and helped him ascend to the top of a crowded primary.
That year, President Trump appeared at a rally for Mr. Vance in suburban Dayton the night before the primary.
‘Ohio’s Senate Seat’
Upon learning of President Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Moreno, Mr. Dolan said in a written statement: “This is Ohio’s Senate seat. I know who I’m fighting for. I know what I’m fighting for. To defeat Sherrod Brown, we must have the strongest nominee possible.“My focus is on advancing policies that will strengthen our state and nation while running a campaign worthy of the people I endeavor to serve.”
At a GOP Senate debate earlier this month, Mr. Dolan said of President Trump: “I’m supporting President Trump to be our nominee, but because I support Trump Republican policies.
“His personality? It’s not me. His political style? It’s not me. But his policies that make your life better, that make America stronger, that will make Ohio stronger? That is me.”
Mr. Dolan, 59, has also said that he is the only candidate who has enacted such “Trump policies.”
“These two have spent a great deal of time deleting all their past comments, hateful comments on Trump,“ Mr. Dolan said at one of the debates. ”And now, because it’s in their political best interests, they’re saying something completely different.”
President Trump endorsed Mr. LaRose’s reelection bid for Ohio secretary of state in 2022.
Mr. LaRose told reporters that he believed that the former president would remain neutral in the 2024 GOP Senate primary.
A few days later, Mr. Trump declared his support for Mr. Moreno.
During a GOP primary debate, Mr. LaRose said that even though he did not get President Trump’s endorsement, he is backed by pro-gun and pro-life organizations in Ohio.
“I’m the one that doesn’t just say it, I’m the one that has proven it, but I’m also the one that can defeat Sherrod Brown,” Mr. LaRose said.
“We need to defeat Sherrod Brown and replace him with someone who actually shares our values. I’m the one that checks both of those boxes.”
LaRose a ‘Thousandaire’
He noted that he is the only candidate in the GOP primary who has won a statewide election and the only candidate who is not a millionaire.Mr. LaRose has jokingly called himself a “thousandaire.”
“I’m paid very well for the work I do as secretary of state. I’m not calling myself poor, but we have to sit there at the end of the month and figure out how we’re going to pay our bills,” he said.
“And that’s not a concern that either of my opponents have had for many decades, if ever.”
Mr. LaRose faced backlash last week for his alleged ties to No Labels, a political organization focused on electing centrist candidates.
A leaked email from No Labels invited recipients to join a call with Mr. LaRose, according to NBC News.
In the email, No Labels co-executive director Liz Morrison outlined the Zoom call and described Mr. LaRose as a “longtime friend.”
“We cannot recommend more emphatically your support for Frank LaRose,“ she said. ”The choice is now for a Trump Senator or an Independent Senator.”
A spokesperson for Mr. LaRose’s campaign wrote on X that the report was “fake news” and that “there is no call with No Labels.”
“Frank LaRose has nothing to do with this group and his labels are clear: Husband, Father, Green Beret, Conservative, Ohio Republican,” the campaign spokesperson wrote.
Mr. Moreno’s allies were quick to attack Mr. LaRose.
“Another reason to support Bernie Moreno in Ohio!” Mr. Vance posted on X.
Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X, “Frank LaRose just got exposed for raising money from one of the biggest pro-amnesty and pro-gun control groups in the country. No Labels supports anti-Trump RINOs like Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney!!!!”
Earlier this month, after Mr. Moreno was joined on the campaign trail by Mr. Ramaswamy and Mr. Trump Jr., Mr. LaRose released a statement bashing the event.
“Today, two strong supporters of the Second Amendment, Don Jr. and Vivek Ramaswamy, campaigned with a Democrat who has repeatedly mocked gun owners and parroted anti-Second Amendment language used by Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Sherrod Brown,” he said.
“Sometimes even the good guys get it wrong, but Ohioans won’t fall for Bernie’s election-year conversion. They want a senator who respects the Second Amendment and one who is not just another liberal masquerading as a conservative.”
Border Crisis
Addressing the border crisis is a key issue in the GOP primary.Mr. Moreno has used his story of legally immigrating to the United States and his Latino heritage to combat attacks from the far left.
“The Democrats have this narrative that says Ohio is primarily made up of a bunch of white supremacists, racist hillbillies who hate every ethnic group in the world and are afraid of them,” he said.
“But wouldn’t it be something when they elect a senator to represent them in D.C. who was born in Colombia, South America, who had to learn English, who had to become a U.S. citizen? It breaks that narrative apart.”
Mr. LaRose has criticized Mr. Moreno over a wage theft lawsuit in Massachusetts and for sitting on the board of an organization that made donations to Planned Parenthood.
He has also said that Mr. Moreno wrote op-eds in newspapers advocating for wind and solar subsidies and more lenient immigration laws.
“He wrote an article that said there should be a path to citizenship and my team will share it. It’s his own words,” Mr. LaRose said about Mr. Moreno in a GOP primary debate.
“But now that he wants to try to convince people he’s a conservative, he’s changed his tune on that. Which Bernie are we going to get in Washington?”
Mr. Dolan questioned both of his opponents about their immigration stance.
“Both of you guys are reinventing yourself on the issue of immigration,” he said.
“Frank, you were wrapping your arms around No Labels which had a clear path to citizenship. And Bernie you are quoted as saying you want a path to residency, and you think it’s important that all illegals become U.S. citizens.”
Mr. Moreno built his wealth as a luxury car dealer and a blockchain company founder. He has never held political office.
“I’m the only outsider in this race. I’m running against two career politicians,” Mr. Moreno told The Epoch Times.
“I’m the only one who supports Trump. Matt Dolan has said he does not support Trump, and LaRose hitched his wagon to [Ron] DeSantis.
“LaRose and Dolan are spending their time running for office while they are in other offices. I sold every one of my operating businesses and gave up shares in my tech company so there would be no conflict of interest.”
The candidate who wins the GOP primary will have a daunting challenge to unseat Mr. Brown.
He served in the Ohio Legislature from 1974 to 1982 before becoming Ohio’s secretary of state.
In 1991, he was elected to Congress as a U.S. Representative.
In 2006, he defeated Mr. DeWine to begin his tenure in the Senate.
Mr. Brown is seeking his fourth term in that chamber in 2024.
Mr. Farno called Mr. Brown a “formidable candidate who has been elected statewide for years.”
“Tim Ryan wasn’t,” he said. “Sherrod Brown has greater name recognition. Most Ohioans know who he is.”
