In Georgia, a Concerning Demographic Trend for Democrats

Trump won 11 percent of the state’s black vote in 2020, but he’s polling better in 2024. Conversations with Harris backers reveal a lack of spark.
In Georgia, a Concerning Demographic Trend for Democrats
A student fills out a voter registration form at Morehouse College in Atlanta on Aug. 19, 2024. Elijah Nouvelage/ AFP via Getty Images
Stacy Robinson
Joseph Lord
Updated:
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ATLANTA—On Oct. 19, Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally just south of Atlanta. Thousands turned out for the event, including many black voters from the area—voters crucial to Harris’s aspirations to hold onto the Peach State.

President Joe Biden won Georgia by a paper-thin 0.23-point margin in 2020, a little more than 11,000 votes.

The narrow victory was something of an upset in a state that had voted for Republicans in every presidential contest since 1992.

Biden’s slim 2020 victory was caused in large part by high black voter turnout in Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton counties, located in and around the city center of Atlanta, boosted by former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams’s voter turnout machine.

Black voters make up nearly one-third of Georgia’s electorate. In Atlanta, one of the largest cities in the South, they make up about 47.1 percent.

According to exit polling, Biden won the lion’s share of these voters, taking in 88 percent of Georgia’s black vote to President Donald Trump’s 11 percent.

But this year, polling and voter sentiment raise red flags for Harris’s prospects of holding the state.

As of Oct. 20, Trump leads the FiveThirtyEight Georgia polling aggregate by 1.8 percent.

Atlas Intel, an international pollster regarded as among the most accurate in the 2020 election, found roughly the same in its most recent Georgia poll, which showed a 2-point lead for Trump.

That poll shows a demographic trend that is concerning for Democrats: It found that Trump is favored by about 25 percent of black voters, compared with 73 percent backing Harris. About 2 percent said they would back Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver.
Another poll conducted in the state by ActiVote found similar results, with Trump winning 24 percent of the black vote to Harris’s 76 percent.
A national poll conducted by The New York Times/Sienna found lower margins for Trump, with 15 percent of black voters expressing support for him, but it aligned with other polls in finding 78 percent support for Harris.

Polls aren’t the only indication that Harris’s appeal is waning.

Several black residents who spoke to The Epoch Times indicated that they are supporting Trump and that they know many others who are. But many were reluctant to immediately share their support, citing the risk of “retaliation” by others within their community.

Those backing Harris but outside the Democratic base were largely unenthusiastic about their vote, with one even citing a feeling of “obligation” to vote for the Democrat.

The Epoch Times spoke to about 15 black voters in the Atlanta area with the 2024 presidential election just weeks away. Here’s what they had to say about the looming contest.

Harris Struggles Outside Her Base

Attendees of Harris’s Atlanta rally enthusiastically demonstrated their support for the vice president.

Thousands attended the rally bearing pro-Harris hats, T-shirts, and signs. A large number of those present were black, although there was also a strong presence of suburban white people. All who spoke to The Epoch Times said they were enthusiastic.

R&B singer Usher briefly took the stage to speak in support of Harris, although he didn’t perform. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) also urged voters to back the vice president. Social media influencers were admitted alongside the press and could be seen recording videos for TikTok and similar platforms within the press pen.

Supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris gather south of Atlanta to show their support for the presidential contender and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, on Oct. 19. (Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times)
Supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris gather south of Atlanta to show their support for the presidential contender and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, on Oct. 19. Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times

Harris delivered a roughly 30-minute speech, largely repeating her past stump speeches. She focused most of her remarks on abortion, referencing the case of Georgian Amber Thurman, who died after a complication after taking an abortion pill.

Harris repeated her common refrain that Americans are “exhausted” of Trump and represented herself as a new way forward.

One voter who spoke to The Epoch Times afterward said she felt “energized” by the rally.

Other voters in the Democratic base also told The Epoch Times they were enthusiastic.

Debbie, an older black woman who is a lawyer, said she had historically supported Democrats and said this time would be no different. She spoke to The Epoch Times inside the Lenox Mall during her lunch break.

“I feel that she is more than qualified, and I feel that she’s the right candidate,” Debbie said, noting that she also was fired up.

Robert Edmond, 37, a clinical researcher, is firmly pro-Harris.

“I am very proud and supportive of her policies and women,“ he said. ”I think she’s going to really be influential in helping the middle class. I think she’s going to be a good president for incorporating inclusivity, and I think she’s gonna help stabilize our country.”

Vice President Kamala Harris addresses supporters during a rally just south of Atlanta on Oct. 19, 2024. (Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times)
Vice President Kamala Harris addresses supporters during a rally just south of Atlanta on Oct. 19, 2024. Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times

But outside of her base, Harris has lower enthusiasm.

“I would say it’s more of an obligation than a thing I’m passionate about,” Isaiah Jefferson, 22, a consultant, said of his support for Harris.

Many black voters expressed distrust of both candidates, feeling that neither will truly work to address the issues that matter to them.

One of these, an Uber driver who didn’t provide his name, said he doesn’t think that either candidate “cares” about him.

He said he voted for Biden in 2020, mostly because of encouragement from others in his community. But in the four years since, he’s become disillusioned with that vote, saying he felt that Biden’s presidency failed to have any effect for him.

Sean Garrett, 41, a motivational speaker, said he’s not impressed with the candidates either.

“What matters is that the right thing is gonna be done. Do I trust any one of them to do it? That’s to be determined,” said Garrett, who indicated that he was nevertheless leaning toward Harris—but was unwilling to make a solid commitment.

“You know, I don’t have no trust for no politician right now, because nobody ever did anything directly for me.”

Chad Henderson, 38, a consultant, is a registered Republican, but he said he’s not happy with either of the two options this year.

“I’m not for either one,” Henderson said. “I don’t really like either one.”

Speaking about Harris’s connection to Biden, Henderson said, “I don’t think he’s done a whole lot, you know, I don’t think he’s really helped anybody out here.”

Henderson said he thought Trump did “some good works” during his first term in office but said he changed his mind after Trump was impeached.

Henderson said he’ll likely vote for Harris as “the lesser of two evils” but said he could still change his mind.

Sabrina Quartey, 44, who manages a furniture outlet in Atlanta, said she’s voting for Harris but made clear that she understands why many—including other black women—might not.

“She’s just not relatable to the black woman,” Quartey said.

“Most of us don’t have a white husband,” she said, referencing Harris’s husband, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. “Most of us don’t have the nice hair. We can’t talk about our baby daddy or Section Eight with Kamala. Kamala’s not relatable.”

The lack of enthusiasm is a problem that Democrats have picked up on as well. Recently, former President Barack Obama encouraged young black men in particular to support Harris, alleging that their lack of enthusiasm was because Harris is a woman.
Former President Barack Obama speaks at a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Nevada Democratic candidates on Oct. 19, the first day of early voting, at Cheyenne High School in North Las Vegas. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Former President Barack Obama speaks at a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Nevada Democratic candidates on Oct. 19, the first day of early voting, at Cheyenne High School in North Las Vegas. Ethan Miller/Getty Images
The comments didn’t make much difference among voters who are already planning to vote for Harris, these voters told The Epoch Times. Those considering a vote for Trump were more put out by the comments, feeling that it was inappropriate to tell them they have to vote for Harris simply because they are black.

Pro-Trump, But Quietly

Out of the 15 black voters The Epoch Times spoke with, seven said they were backing Trump, although many only made the admission reluctantly after an extended conversation.

Joe Lou, a 68-year-old Uber driver, said that he and “everybody” he knows supports Trump.

Asked why he thought that is, he replied: “Because they just feel like things were better. Everybody had more money in their pockets. It’s all about the economy. Everybody had more money. People don’t agree with focusing on transgender and migrants. We got our own problems.”

Lou said he was upset by the priority the Biden administration has given to “sending American money over to Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, you name it.”

“It seems like if you’re a U.S. citizen, the Democratic Party has nothing for you,” he said.

Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters in Atlanta on Oct. 15, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters in Atlanta on Oct. 15, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Lou also said he believes that many young black men may shift toward Trump this year because of a broader cultural shift taking place.

He said many young black men have taken an interest in entrepreneurship and feel that Democrats “don’t offer you anything unless you’re poor or you’re breaking the law.”

Young black men across several swing states have spoken to The Epoch Times about their support for Trump.

But despite the high levels of support he’s seen for Trump, Lou said that many are scared to say so.

“It’s so obvious, the retaliation when you say you’re not with the woke program, they try to cancel you. They try to get you in trouble,” Lou said.

The Epoch Times observed this reticence firsthand.

One woman, who identified herself only as Gayle and didn’t provide her age or occupation, spent about 15 minutes railing against Trump’s past actions and comments.

But when asked if she would ever consider voting for Trump, she lowered her voice and said: “[I'll] be real with you—I already did. I voted for Trump.”

She said she felt let down by Biden and Harris over the past four years and that things had been better under Trump.

Voters and press gather at an early polling place in Buckhead, a northern neighborhood of Atlanta, on Oct. 21, 2024. (Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times)
Voters and press gather at an early polling place in Buckhead, a northern neighborhood of Atlanta, on Oct. 21, 2024. Joseph Lord/The Epoch Times

Jordan Johnson, a 31-year-old warehouse director, said he doesn’t think he’ll vote at all.

But he also said, “If I had to, it'd be for Trump.”

Christopher Brown, 30, a restoration company employee in Georgia temporarily for work, also said he’s backing Trump, primarily for economic reasons.

“I see past the propaganda. Because, unlike most of these politicians, Trump, we’ve known him, and seen him since [before he entered politics],” Brown said. “Back then, he never had that racist card on him. He always interacted with black, so I just see all of that as propaganda.”

Brown said he thinks other black voters should join him in the GOP camp.

“I think the black voters should be on the Republican side,” Brown said. “Anything that was ever beneficial to the black folks was always from that side, ultimately.”

Lou agreed, questioning what black voters had gotten in return for their decades of support for Democrats.

“Folks are finally waking up—that we voted for them for 40 years, and all we have is bigger, worse ghetto,” Lou said.

Stacy Robinson is a politics reporter for the Epoch Times, occasionally covering cultural and human interest stories. Based out of Washington, D.C. he can be reached at [email protected]