Striving to reverse the Democrats’ 51–49 advantage in the Senate, Republicans are focusing their attention in 2024 on West Virginia.
Across the country, eyes will be cast on this mostly rural state where natural gas and coal still reign as prominent industries. The Senate race there is one of the few in 2024 considered a toss-up by The Cook Political Report. Inside Elections rates it as a “battleground,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball says it “leans Republican.”
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is up for reelection. He’s the only Democrat who holds statewide office in a state that has shifted from blue to robust red.
Manchin, 75, said he'll announce his 2024 intentions by the end of the year. Speculation indicates that he could pursue reelection or run for president as an independent or a third-party candidate.
Earlier this year, he said that “everything is on the table” regarding 2024.
Recently, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice entered the Republican Senate primary, which includes Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.)
Justice, 72, has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
Mooney, 51, received endorsements from the conservative Club for Growth PAC, Gun Owners of America, and lawmakers that included Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Justice’s recruitment reflects the NRSC’s commitment to a greater hands-on approach to 2024 after the party’s results in the 2022 midterm elections.
Justice Enters the Race
Justice made his fortune from farming and his family’s coal mining operations. He announced his candidacy for the Senate race at his Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs. He criticized President Joe Biden and spoke about abortion and gun control, among other issues.Justice, who was a Democrat when he took office as governor in 2016 but switched to the Republican party in 2017, is known for his exuberant, folksy persona. He brings his English bulldog, Babydog, to major events.
In December 2021, when Manchin said he couldn’t support Biden’s Build Back Better legislation, entertainer Bette Midler wrote on Twitter that West Virginia is “horrible” and that Manchin “wants us all to be just like his state, West Virginia. Poor, illiterate, and strung out.”
From a podium during his State of the State address a month later, Justice pointed his beloved canine’s rear end at the camera and said that Midler could kiss Babydog’s “hiney” for insulting West Virginians.
The room full of legislators responded with a rousing standing ovation.
“God bless you,” Justice said. “I told you I’d make you smile.”
In backing Justice’s bid, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), an ally of former President Donald Trump, said the governor would be a more electable candidate than some Trump-backed Republicans who lost pivotal midterm races.
“We made mistakes in 2022,” Graham said, hinting at Herschel Walker’s loss in Georgia and Mehmet Oz’s defeat in Pennsylvania. “We maybe didn’t nominate the right person for the state they were running in. I promise you, Jim Justice is the right person for West Virginia.”
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is also backing Justice and told the Greenbrier audience, “I think we’re really going to make a good pair in Washington.”
No Democrat has entered the party’s 2024 Senate primary in West Virginia, although Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has said that he would support a more liberal candidate.
The Senate Majority PAC agrees that West Virginia’s Republican primary will be contentious.
“Gov. Jim Justice enters the West Virginia Republican primary race facing scrutiny for his self-serving and corrupt past on top of well-earned accusations that he’s the choice of the Washington elite,” said Sarah Guggenheimer, Senate Majority PAC spokesperson.
“Up against carpetbagger Alex Mooney, Justice’s campaign will only escalate the ongoing war between Mitch McConnell and Club for Growth, turning West Virginia’s Republican primary into an explosive, expensive mess.”
Club for Growth recently welcomed Justice into the race with an attack ad.
The one-minute commercial states that Justice terminated health care coverage for retired coal miners and their families, alleges that he’s a “deadbeat billionaire delinquent on his financial and moral obligations,” and references reports that a bank sought to garnish his wages as governor to pay a personal loan for his private businesses.
The Club for Growth stated that it will spend at least $10 million in the Senate primary.
In a previous ad, Mooney criticized Justice for COVID-19 lockdowns and called him a “liberal” for passing “the largest tax hike in West Virginia history.”
“Jim Justice is trying to hide his liberal record. As governor, Justice destroyed business and lives when he locked down our state. And big Jim pushed the largest tax hike in West Virginia history, backed Joe Biden’s trillion-dollar spending bill, and tried to stop adults from buying sporting rifles,” a narrator says in the spot.
“Now, big Jim wants to be your senator, but he can’t mask the truth. Liberal Jim Justice just can’t be trusted.”
Justice was a staunch proponent of mask mandates and the COVID-19 vaccine during the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Club for Growth and Mooney promptly mounted aggressive attacks, Justice and his backers have yet to release an ad.
Mooney is facing two congressional ethics investigations. One alleges that he took his family on a trip to Aruba in 2021 that was paid for by HSP Direct, a company to which Mooney has personal ties, according to investigators.
A second report from the Office of Congressional Ethics claims that Mooney, his family, and his staff stayed at a house on Capitol Hill associated with HSP Direct at no cost for lodging, events, and work.
Mooney has denied any wrongdoing.
“I’m glad that some of our legislators know that Alex Mooney is somewhere remotely connected to West Virginia,” Justice told West Virginia-based MetroNews. “I mean, who in the world in the state of West Virginia knows that Alex Mooney is a West Virginian? I mean, the truth of the matter is, Alex Mooney is from Maryland and absolutely, teatotally in every way connected to Maryland.”
Mooney discounted the criticism.Red State Transition
West Virginia’s rapid move from blue to red started in 2014, when the Republicans took control of both state legislative chambers.That year, the number of registered Democrats in West Virginia dipped below 50 percent for the first time since 1932. There are about 456,000 registered Republicans and about 372,000 registered Democrats in West Virginia, according to the West Virginia Secretary of State’s Office.
Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, 89–11 in the state House and 31–3 in the state Senate. Trump won West Virginia with 68 percent of the vote in 2016 and 2020.
After Justice announced his candidacy, Manchin emailed supporters and said: “I am laser-focused on doing the job West Virginians elected me to do—lowering health care costs, protecting Social Security and Medicare, shoring American energy security and getting our fiscal house in order.
“But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter.”
He also told reporters that he expects the primaries to be “very interesting and entertaining.”
Manchin was first elected to office in West Virginia in 1982 as a member of the state’s House of Delegates. He lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 1996, was elected secretary of state in 2000, and then won the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election in 2004 before capturing a second term in 2008.
After Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) died in 2010, Manchin ran to fill the seat and won before getting elected to his first full term in 2012.
In 2018, he defeated West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the general election to earn a second term.
Morrisey was considered a potential 2024 Senate candidate but is running for governor instead.
Manchin is regarded as a centrist Democrat who has often strayed from backing measures promoted by Biden and left-leaning party members. He voted twice to impeach Trump and was instrumental in passing Biden’s major spending bills.
He’s chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and represents a state where natural gas and coal are prominent parts of the economy.
In April, Manchin said he might vote to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act if the Biden administration continues to use the measure to swiftly move the country away from fossil fuels.
Manchin was the lone Democrat to join Republicans in overturning an EPA regulation on heavy-duty truck emissions, and he co-sponsored a resolution from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to remove Biden’s suspension of solar power tariffs.
Although the Biden administration has championed addressing climate change, it has backed fossil fuel projects promoted by Manchin, including the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which stretches from northwestern West Virginia to Virginia and would deliver West Virginia-produced natural gas.
‘I’m Your Guy’
Morning Consult surveys conducted between Jan. 1 and March 31 indicate that 66 percent of West Virginia residents have a favorable view of Justice’s job performance.A poll by National Public Affairs in early April shows Justice ahead of Mooney, 55 percent to 24 percent, with 21 percent undecided.
Undeterred, Mooney believes that he can defeat Justice.
“West Virginia is a solid Republican state that deserves to have a proven conservative voice in the United States Senate instead of a Democrat like Joe Manchin or a liberal Republican,” Mooney said in a statement after Cruz announced his backing.
He told MetroNews: “You want a proven conservative, I’m your guy. I have a voting record you can look at. You want someone who’s more of a liberal Republican, there’s Jim Justice.”
A poll released by Mooney’s campaign and conducted by Osage Research on April 5 and April 6 with a 4.9 percent margin of error shows that Justice has widespread name recognition, but Mooney gained an advantage when respondents were informed of some of the governor’s actions.
Upon learning about Justice’s decisions as governor, 45 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Mooney, 41 percent said they would back Justice, and 14 said they were undecided or declined to comment.
Justice has supported multiple spending measures promoted by Biden, according to the poll, including the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
Mooney voted against both bills.
Morrisey, who’s also backed by Club for Growth, told The Epoch Times to “not count out” Mooney.
The Trump Factor
Justice and Mooney publicly back Trump, who has yet to endorse a candidate in the West Virginia race.In 2017, Justice announced at a Trump rally in Huntington, West Virginia, that he was leaving the Democratic party and returning to the GOP.
Before his campaign launch event, Justice talked to Trump, according to NBC News, which cited a source familiar with the conversation. The governor has discussed his relationship with the Trump family. In 2017, he went turkey hunting and trout fishing in West Virginia with Donald Trump Jr. and posted a photo on the governor’s website of a catch they made.
Mooney was endorsed by Trump in 2022 when Justice campaigned for Mooney’s Republican primary opponent, Rep. David McKinley.
“I’m staying in touch with Trump. I mean, I believe my running for U.S. Senate is continuation of his investment in me and his endorsement in my primary last time, and I’ve told him as much,” Mooney said. “Hey look, this was the plan. I mean now we’ve got to go against Joe Manchin, who voted to impeach Trump twice.
“So I’m hoping he’ll still endorse me. I’m asking for that. Maybe he’ll stay neutral if he doesn’t want to get involved in a primary between me and Jim Justice. If so, so be it. I understand.”
