Ron DeSantis is running out of time.
In January 2023, the Florida governor was a rising star in the Republican Party and on the fast track to the White House. Now, he’s far behind former President Donald Trump in national polls and locked in a brutal battle with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley for second place.
Mr. DeSantis’s political future hinges on the Hawkeye State. The candidate must do well at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Jan. 15 caucus to prove he can win the White House.
On the campaign trail, Mr. DeSantis and his supporters are confident he has a shot in the 2024 event thanks to the work he’s put in at more than 100 town halls and campaign events in the state.
“We’re going to do well,” Mr. DeSantis told the Epoch Times at a town hall in Waukee, Iowa, on Jan. 3. “We’ve been able to line up so many great supporters.”
In a press scrum, Mr. DeSantis said he has more than 1,500 precinct captains who will be organizing voters and turning out supporters on caucus night.
“This is an organizational effort. It’s not a primary where you just send in a ballot or just punch your ticket,” Mr. DeSantis said.
“We’ve done everything we’ve done with that in mind. I think you’re going to continue to see really, really good things.”
Nikki Parker, a DeSantis supporter from Waukee who spoke with The Epoch Times on Jan. 3, said she thinks DeSantis still has a “great chance.”
She said DeSantis has “Iowa values.”
Moreover, Ms. Parker said some Iowans are becoming tired of the former president’s never-ending drama.
John Griffiths, another Republican caucus-goer from Waukee, was at the rally to assess the candidate.
In an interview, he said he formerly supported Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and was undecided before hearing Mr. DeSantis speak.
Griffiths said he wasn’t opposed to caucusing for Ms. Haley either, but he wishes President Trump would “act a little more presidential.”
When asked about whether Mr. DeSantis should keep running if he has a poor showing at the Iowa Caucus, Mr. Griffiths said: “If he’s not at least third, then no.”
Ms. Parker said she wasn’t sure, but January is still too early to count him out entirely.
“Maybe this cycle isn’t his turn,” Ms. Parker said.
All American Resume
Mr. DeSantis is 45, two years older than President John F. Kennedy, the youngest ever elected. In his life, he’s put together a credible resume for the presidency.He is from Jacksonville, Florida, and graduated from Yale University in 2001. After a brief stint teaching, he went to Harvard Law School where he graduated in 2005.
At Harvard University, Mr. DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy and was commissioned as an officer. He was assigned to the Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps.
In 2006 and 2007, Mr. DeSantis served overseas at Guantanamo Bay and then in Iraq. He returned to the U.S. in 2008 and worked at a U.S. Attorney’s Office in Florida.
Rising Star
In 2012, Mr. DeSantis won a seat representing Florida’s 6th Congressional District. He served in the House of Representatives from 2013 to 2018.In 2018, he was elected governor in a close race against then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.
As governor, Mr. DeSantis rose to fame through conservative policies and stances on social issues.
His reputation was burnished during the COVID-19 pandemic when he flouted the orders of the day and kept the Sunshine State open during national lockdowns.
In a reelection contest, Mr. DeSantis trounced former Florida Rep. Charlie Crist. He won by nearly 20 percent in what is historically a swing state. The triumph minted Mr. DeSantis a genuine prospect for the Oval Office.
As early as February 2022, a Rasmussen Reports poll found 20 percent of likely voters would support Mr. DeSantis in the 2024 race. That was only 17 percent away from President Trump’s support at the time.
Before he officially announced his campaign, in a glitchy digital event on Twitter —now known as X— in May 2023, Mr. DeSantis was positioned as the strongest choice to wrest control of the GOP away from President Trump.
Three polls published between January and March 2023 placed Mr. DeSantis’ support at 36 percent. Two polls published by Yahoo News in January and February 2023 found Mr. DeSantis tied, or close to a tie, with President Trump.
Since then, Mr. DeSantis’s polling never matched those heights. The best he’s done since May was 26 percent. A CNN poll graded his support at that level, far behind President Trump’s 47 percent, in June 2023.
Deep Pockets, High Drama
With only days before the primaries begin, the DeSantis campaign is heavily focused on Iowa even though it is only one of four early presidential primary contests. This is by design.Mr. DeSantis spent much time in the state, making the full circuit of all 99 of its counties. He’s been shaking hands, signing autographs, and answering far-ranging questions from Sioux City to Davenport.
Meanwhile, his operatives working for the campaign and its allies knocked on doors, rang phones, and recruited representatives who would champion DeSantis on caucus night.
Additionally, Iowa media has been blanketed with DeSantis ads for months. Millions of dollars worth of political ads from both the DeSantis campaign and its allies extolling his record and excoriating his rivals are airing in the final days before the event, too.
Mr. DeSantis’s campaign is not short on cash or talent.
Officially, according to Federal Election Commission records, Ron DeSantis for President raised more than $31.6 million between February and September 2023.
His largest unofficial supporter, the super political action committee Never Back Down Inc., raised more than $130 million in the first six months of 2023.
The super PAC, by federal law, cannot coordinate with the candidate. For most of its life, it was led by veteran Republican political operative Jeff Roe.
Mr. Roe, the founder of Kansas City-based Axiom Strategies, served as the lead strategist of Never Back Down until Dec. 16, 2023, when he resigned.
In a parting message he published on X, Mr. Roe said he couldn’t stay with the organization after the Washington Post published a report alleging dysfunction within the PAC.
Mr. Roe’s firm earned a reputation as an Iowa Caucus savant.
In 2008, Axiom worked with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Mr. Huckabee won the contest.
In 2016, Mr. Roe served as the campaign manager for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Mr. Cruz won the Iowa Caucus, beating out President Trump.
The winning play in Iowa, according to history and its students, is spending time with the people in all corners of the state to practice so-called retail politics.
Mr. Roe, who did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times, likely saw it firsthand and preached it to Never Back Down.
At the end of December, the campaign’s unofficial arm splintered off into at least three super PAC groups. Fight Right Inc. and Good Fight emerged to handle both negative and positive messaging, respectively.
Winning in Iowa
Key DeSantis supporters say the Iowa strategy has paid off and the candidate will have a strong showing on caucus night thanks to the hard work he and his team have put in.In an interview, Linn County Republican Party co-chair Barrett Hubbard said Mr. DeSantis is running a much closer race in Iowa than national and statewide polls show.
Mr. Hubbard said he’s caucusing for DeSantis.
Linn County, home to Cedar Rapids, is the second most populous county in Iowa.
“They’ve got tons of volunteers that are highly committed, that are knocking doors, that are making phone calls,” Mr. Hubbard said.
“They’ve got a ground game that’s designed to turn out the vote for a caucus.”
Mr. Hubbard said more than 52,000 commit-to-caucus cards were signed in favor of the DeSantis campaign at the beginning of January. That is more than Mr. Cruz collected before the 2016 event.
Additionally, the actions of the Trump and Haley campaigns indicate they are seeing a closer race than outsiders do, Mr. Hubbard said.
The DeSantis campaign, according to a message circulated by Ron DeSantis for President Communications Director Andrew Romeo in early January, estimated more than $40 million has been spent by candidates and outside groups to oppose Mr. DeSantis.
In an interview, Cody Hoefert, the co-chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa from 2015 to 2021, who’s also backing Mr. DeSantis, said the candidate is earning passionate adherents by talking about the issues Iowans care about and campaigning the way they expect.
Mr. Hoefert, who is now deeply involved with the Lyon County Republican Party in rural northwestern Iowa, said Mr. DeSantis’ Iowa organization is “significantly ahead” of where past caucus winners Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Cruz, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum were at this stage of their campaign.
Along with the caucus commitments, Mr. Hoefert said DeSantis precinct captains would help drive voter turnout.
Mr. Barrett predicted a higher turnout election would benefit Mr. DeSantis.
At the same time, the Trump operation is not demonstrating the level of cohesion needed for success in Iowa nor is he speaking in a way that appeals to Iowans, Mr. Hoefert said.
“Donald Trump … flies in and does in a rally [where he] doesn’t take any questions, stands up there, spits platitudes, [and] talks about all the things that he’s going to do that he didn’t do the first time,” Mr. Hoefert said.
Reality Check
Impartial observers in Iowa agreed Mr. DeSantis is connecting with voters. However, Mr. DeSantis’s lack of serious offense against the Trump juggernaut, the constant attack ads against him, and the miasma of protracted decline could cost him on caucus day and beyond.They questioned how much longer he could keep up the fight.
Tim Hagle, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, said President Trump carries the air of incumbency.
President Trump’s supporters rallied to him as indictments related to his presidency and his private business dealings piled up in 2023.
Recent attempts by Colorado and Maine to strike him from the 2024 ballot only played into the narrative that the establishment is doing everything it can to keep President Trump out of Washington.
“Every time that he was indicted, we saw his poll numbers go up,” Mr. Hagle said.
Mr. DeSantis, according to Mr. Hagle, has attempted to frame himself as President Trump without the baggage.
However, touting his youth and record of achievements in Florida isn’t luring enough support away from President Trump. Furthermore, Mr. DeSantis is not seriously going after President Trump directly.
Karen Kedrowski, professor of political science at Iowa State University, said the DeSantis campaign made a huge, but perhaps understandable, miscalculation of not anticipating his Trump alternative message would fall flat with voters.
Plus, the national media’s “horse race” interpretations of the primaries are not kind to Mr. DeSantis, either.
Horse race stories, as Ms. Kedrowski called them, show one campaign with momentum and another flagging. With President Trump’s large lead, political media is fixated on the contest between Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley for second place.
“[That] really nicely encapsulates what we’re hearing about the DeSantis campaign,” Ms. Kedrowski said. “There’s always this attempt to do a refresh, or reboot, or replace staff. All of those are indications of a campaign that is struggling.”
Ms. Kedrowski said the DeSantis campaign earned a reputation as a debacle starting with its much-lampooned announcement speech on X.
She said staking something as big as a presidential announcement to a new, unproven technology was a mistake.
“It became a metaphor for a faltering campaign,” Ms. Kedrowski said.
The weight of negative ads coming from the Trump and Haley campaigns and allied PACs is also dragging DeSantis down. While it tends to focus on personality quirks, wardrobe choices, and other non-policy issues, the negative messaging is working.
“In politics, some of the most devastating attacks are the ones where you’re making fun of the other person,” Mr. Hagle said.
“The political science research [says] people don’t like them, but they are effective,” Ms. Kedrowski said. “People believe them and they kind of stick in their minds.”
Mr. Hagle also questioned the amount of power the DeSantis campaign gave Never Back Down.
“Handing over the reins of a major part of your campaign to somebody or something that you can’t control because of campaign finance, didn’t seem to be the best move,” Mr. Hagle said.
Ms. Kedrowski wondered why Mr. DeSantis debated California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Nov. 30, 2023.
Mr. Newsom is not a candidate for national office although there are whisperings he could swoop into the 2024 race or be angling for a 2028 run.
Defining Success
In spite of everything, both true believers and skeptics say Mr. DeSantis does not need to beat President Trump in Iowa. However, his campaign will not survive without a strong showing on Jan. 15.“DeSantis really needs to do well here,” Mr. Hagle said. “It would seem, at a minimum, he’s got to come in second.”
Mr. Hagle said a 30 percent margin of victory for Trump would pour more cold water on Mr. DeSantis. Similar defeats in New Hampshire and South Carolina would prove “you can’t stop Trump.”
Ms. Kedrowski said Iowa is not necessarily a life-and-death situation.
“Unless it’s just a complete implosion, I think one race is not enough to get a real handle on the viability of your campaign,” Ms. Kedrowski said.
Ms. Kedrowski said Ms. Haley’s recent gaffes in New Hampshire and Iowa could provide an opening for the DeSantis campaign.
She said Mr. DeSantis should keep the effort up until the campaign goes broke. A better-than-expected performance in Iowa could bring wavering donors back into the fold.
Both Mr. Hubbard and Mr. Hoefert said Mr. DeSantis needs to outperform expectations.
Mr. Hubbard agreed that if President Trump wins Iowa by a wide margin, then “the race is over.”
Even if Ms. Haley performs well in New Hampshire or South Carolina, President Trump will lock up the nomination as evidence piles up he cannot be beaten.
“Everything is staked on Iowa this year,” Mr. Hubbard said. “If DeSantis wins ... then that opens up the race and the race is on.”
Mr. Hubbard said he thinks Mr. DeSantis has a “realistic” shot at gaining 40 to 45 percent support at the caucus.
Mr. Hoefert agreed with the political adage that three tickets come out of Iowa. The way the national story will be shaped on Jan. 16 is all about perceptions.
He foresaw two possible outcomes.
If Mr. DeSantis wins, it will be perceived as a huge overperformance. If President Trump wins, but he does not meet the high standard of victory he’s established for himself “that pops the bubble of invincibility that the media and his donors have tried to put around him.”
President Trump’s celebrity, Mr. Hoefert said, is as much a liability as it is an asset for him with Iowans.
President Trump’s reputation has “cost him a lot of voters within the Republican Party, and it’s caused our party to pay the price at the ballot box with suburban women, with independents, and with [the establishment].” Mr. Hoefert said.
