Hurricane Milton Now Category 5 Again: What We Know a Day Before Landfall

Hurricane Milton's wind speed forecast as updated by the National Hurricane Center on Oct. 8, 2024. US National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Milton re-strengthened to a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds on Tuesday afternoon, with federal forecasters warning the storm will likely double in size before it hits Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The storm is forecast to make landfall near Tampa on Wednesday evening and could become the worst storm to hit the area in about 100 years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned earlier this week.

Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge warnings have been issued for much of the Florida Gulf Coast.

“Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida,” the NHC said in a discussion updated on Tuesday. “In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall.”

Outside the forecast zone, “damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall” can be expected, the NHC warned.

The NHC put particular emphasis on warning about storm surge in the Tampa area. “This is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials,” the agency said. “There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday.”

‘Not Survivable’

An official in Pinellas County, Florida, said the storm surge will likely cause the deaths of people who stick around.

“This is not survivable,” Pinellas County Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins told a news conference. “This is the ocean coming into your living room. This is fast-rising water with a lot of pressure behind it.”

“Don’t think that you’re going to be able to ride that out. Don’t think you’re going to be able to protect your building. It’s going to be pushing against the walls of your structure for hours and hours. This is why we need you to go.”

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor provided a more stark warning on people who don’t leave evacuation zones ahead of the storm.

“Do whatever you need to do and then get out of the evacuation zones which now are evacuation zones A and B, and as we all have heard so many times now, you hide from the wind and run from the water and we are talking about, right now, the possibility of a direct hit with 10 to 12-foot tidal surge,” she told CNN on Monday evening.

Milton is “literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Castor then warned.

How Strong Will It Be Tomorrow?

Milton is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida late Wednesday as at least a Category 3 storm, with winds of 111 to 129 mph, forecasters said on Tuesday afternoon.

The storm could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean and emerges on the other side of the state. That track would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Carolinas.

Milton had intensified to a Category 5 system with winds of 185 mph or greater on Monday, according to the NHC. However, the hurricane weakened overnight as it moved to the west.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pointed out while briefing reporters on Monday afternoon that the hurricane is already far stronger than what was predicted two days ago.

“This is a ferocious hurricane,” he said.

DeSantis cautioned that while the storm is expected to weaken by the time it reaches Florida, residents shouldn’t bank on it, and he said Milton will cause destruction regardless.

“At the strength it is now, this is a really, really strong storm. The effects of that, not just from the storm surge but from wind damage and debris, will be really, really significant,” the governor said. “This is not a storm you want to take a risk on.”

DeSantis told a news conference on Tuesday afternoon that the storm will impact more than the Tampa Bay area.

“This storm is going to go across the Florida peninsula,” he said. “This is not just an event about the west coast of Florida.”

What Sort of Damage Could Milton Cause?

The toll from a hurricane depends on its strength and where it makes landfall.

Even a relatively weak hurricane can cause major damage and many deaths if it hits a vulnerable community or damages a key piece of infrastructure. A mid-strength hurricane, such as 2004’s Hurricane Jeanne in Florida, will cause devastating damage to homes, infrastructure, and the power grid.

Deaths also commonly occur because of flooding, accidents, injuries, and other disturbances caused by the storm.

Officials have warned residents not to anticipate the storm weakening. Florida’s Division of Emergency Management offers a list of which counties are under evacuation orders at www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.