How Does Trump’s Conviction Impact Voters Decisions?

Former President and Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump Tower in New York on May 31, 2024. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

News Analysis

Political strategists and commentators have speculated for months about how former President Donald Trump’s trial would affect the upcoming election.

The presumptive GOP presidential nominee was found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records, making him the first former president in American history to be a convicted felon. The case concerned payments made to adult film performer Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels, in return for her silence regarding her claims that she had an affair with Mr. Trump several years earlier.

With Recent Verdict, Predictions are Clearer

Former President Donald Trump’s conviction could paradoxically bolster his re-election chances in several ways, largely due to the complex dynamics of political perception, media coverage, and voter behavior. Within 24 hours of his conviction, the Trump campaign announced it had raised $52.8 million, which it said was “almost double the biggest day ever recorded” on the WinRed Republican fundraising platform.

Approximately 30 percent of the donations came from new donors on WinRed, indicating the conviction helped expand former President Trump’s donor base. The surge in donations caused WinRed’s website to briefly crash due to the overwhelming traffic and influx of contributions.

Mark Lucas, executive vice president of the Article III Project, a group that defends constitutionalist judges, told The Epoch Times that traditional Trump caucus supporters have grown more dedicated in recent months.

“The conviction has emboldened supporters on behalf of Donald Trump,” said Mr. Lucus. “Many who were on the fence now support Trump because of the verdict.”

While the conviction was a legal victory for the prosecution, it appears to have provided a fundraising windfall for Trump’s 2024 campaign by rallying his base, expanding his donor pool, and prompting renewed financial commitments from donors who view the charges as politically motivated by a biased judiciary.

The Article III Project filed an ethics complaint in April against federal Judge Reggie Walton with the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals for making remarks on CNN about former President Trump’s conduct at his trial in New York.

“The American people are seeing this circus for what it is,” said Mr. Lucus. “Americans are losing trust and confidence in the judiciary. It’s time to remove politics and return to the rule of law.”

Voter Enthusiasm Since Verdict

While Democrats overwhelmingly agree with the conviction of the 45th president, there are divides within the party on how much to emphasize this issue versus addressing economic concerns and touting President Joe Biden’s achievements during his 2024 campaign.

The conviction has led to some movement, however, in the polls. Some studies find each candidate nearly even, with former President Trump and President Biden in a tight race. YouGov research shows President Biden’s approval rating has declined modestly following his predecessor’s conviction.

Meanwhile, The New York Times/Siena College recontact poll showed President Biden’s support increasing from 45 percent to 46 percent after former President Trump’s conviction. In comparison, former President Trump’s lead over President Biden narrowed from 3 points to just 1 point (47 percent to 46 percent).

The five-way race has Robert Kennedy, Jr. at 8.6 percent, Cornell West at 1.7 percent, and Jill Stein at 1.4 percent.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that some independents believed the verdict against Trump was correct and that he should end his candidacy. Around two-thirds of voters with unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump said that Trump should drop out after the conviction. This suggests some swing voters and those displeased with both candidates shifted slightly toward President Biden after former President Trump’s felony conviction.

The Economist/YouGov polling found that Biden voters have consistently expressed less enthusiasm about voting than Trump voters before and after the conviction.

Fifty-three percent of Biden supporters said they were very or extremely enthusiastic about voting, compared to 66 percent of Trump supporters.

Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to the 2008 Hillary Clinton for President Campaign, told The Epoch Times the polls suggest that most Americans believe the New York jury on Trump’s trial made the right decision.

“A large percentage of people will think twice about voting for Trump,” said Ms. Cardona. “We are seeing numbers that should concern the Trump campaign.”

The critical battleground is among independent and undecided voters. The conviction may have shifted some support away from the former president, but based on current polling data, the extent of this impact remains limited.

Ms. Cardona added that the Biden campaign has yet to depend on a verdict regarding his Republican opponent’s legal challenges to make a case for reelection.

“It’s a net negative for the Trump campaign,” said Ms. Cardona. “It isn’t going to hurt his base, but it hurts him with suburban women and independents, as well as common-sense and never-Trump Republicans.”

Ms. Cardona contends there is a significant choice and contrast in the upcoming presidential election.

“President Biden is expanding our rights and freedoms and protecting our democracy,” said Ms. Cardona. “Donald Trump is an existential threat to our rights and freedoms.”